2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Virginia, UNC Trending Up; St. Louis Falls

College basketball fans were treated to a loaded slate of games to begin the week, as the ACC made a statement with several notable results.

No. 18 North Carolina opened the week with a 77-74 win over No. 24 Louisville, while No. 11 Virginia delivered a dominant victory over NC State on Tuesday night. Duke added to the league’s strong showing, routing Notre Dame 100-56 — the Irish’s worst home loss since 1898.

Both North Carolina and Virginia moved up in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament seed list. The Cavaliers climbed to the 4-line, while the Tar Heels jumped to a No. 5 seed.

Duke, now 26-2 overall and 14-1 in ACC play, is the top overall seed in DeCourcy's seed list. The Blue Devils are joined by Michigan, Arizona and UConn on the 1-line.

Cameron Boozer #12 of the Duke Blue Devils prepares to shoot a free throw during a game against Clemson. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

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Iowa State, fresh off a 75-59 victory over Utah, is the top seed on the 2-line. Illinois, Purdue and Houston are the other teams that make up DeCourcy's No. 2 seeds. The Illini will look to bounce back following a devesting loss to UCLA last weekend when they battle No. 2 Michigan in a Big Ten showdown Friday night on FOX.

Kansas, Florida, Gonzaga and Nebraska make up DeCourcy's No. 3 seeds. The Jayhawks are fresh off a statement win over then-No. 5 Houston on Monday night, while the Gators, Zags and Cornhuskers are all in action Wednesday night.

As for the No. 4 seeds in DeCourcy's latest seed list, it's Virginia at the top of the list, joined by Michigan State, Alabama and Texas Tech. Tom Izzo's Spartans have a chance to boost their tournament résumé if they can secure a victory over No. 8 Purdue on Thursday night.

Jeremy Fears Jr. #1 of the Michigan State Spartans looks on during the first half of a game against Michigan . (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

Here is a complete look at DeCourcy's NCAA Tournament seed list:

No. 1 seeds

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Connecticut

No. 2 seeds

5. Iowa State
6. Illinois
7. Purdue
8. Houston

No. 3 seeds

9. Kansas
10. Florida
11. Gonzaga
12. Nebraska

No. 4 seeds

13. Virginia
14. Michigan State
15. Alabama
16. Texas Tech

No. 5 seeds

17. St. John’s
18. Arkansas
19. Vanderbilt
20. North Carolina

No. 6 seeds

21. Tennessee
22. Louisville
23. BYU
24. Villanova

No. 7 seeds

25. Wisconsin
26. UCF
27. Utah State
28. Saint Louis

No. 8 seeds

29. NC State
30. Kentucky
31. Miami Hurricanes
32. Miami RedHawks

No. 9 seeds

33. Georgia
34. Saint Mary’s
35. SMU
36. Iowa

No. 10 seeds

37. UCLA
38. Texas A&M
39. Clemson
40. Missouri

No. 11 seeds

41. Texas
42. Santa Clara
43. Indiana v. 44. TCU
45. California v. 46. VCU

No. 12 seeds

47. Belmont
48. Yale
49. South Florida
50. Liberty

No. 13 seeds

51. Stephen F. Austin
52. UNC Wilmingon
53. High Point
54. Hawaii

No. 14 seeds

55. Utah Valley
56. Austin Peay
57. North Dakota State
58. East Tennessee State

No. 15 seeds

59. Portland State
60. Wright State
61. Navy
62. Merrimack

No. 16 seeds

63. Appalachian State
64. UMBC
65. LIU
66. Bethune-Cookman
67. Southeast Missouri State
68. Morgan State

And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble.

According to DeCourcy's seed list, Auburn, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and USC are the first four teams out of the tournament, while New Mexico, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State and San Diego State are the next four out.

Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.