National Football League

NFL odds Week 13: Insights on Packers-Bears, Commanders-Giants; Big bets

December 4, 2022

It’s a pretty good slate in the NFL Week 13 odds market, including a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. But the college football Week 14 odds board features all those conference championship games, which will fill out the four-team field for the College Football Playoff.

That includes one matchup seeing plenty of action at most sportsbooks and a gargantuan wager with one bookmaker.

Let’s jump into this week’s college football and NFL betting nuggets.

Michigan-Purdue and USC-Utah preview featuring Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports’ RJ Young is joined by Geoff Schwartz to preview the Big Ten and Pac-12 Conference Championship games.

The Most Major of Major Wagers

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This past Sunday, while NFL betting abounded, a Nevada customer of Caesars Sports decided that Friday night’s Pac-12 championship game was more intriguing.

Like, much more intriguing.

Like, hey, let’s bet $901,350.65 on USC moneyline -130 against Utah in the neutral-site game at Allegiant Stadium here in Las Vegas.

It’s a tremendous leap of faith. Granted, all Southern Cal has to do is win the game, not cover the spread, which is currently Trojans -2.5 at Caesars. But this is the largest reported wager of football season, as noted by Caesars Sports’ Max Meyer.

If USC wins, two things are certain: The Trojans will be in the College Football Playoff, and that bettor will have won $693,346.65. Nice work if you can get it.

Caesars isn’t the only book at which this matchup is popular.

"The most-bet game for college football so far [this week] has been USC-Utah," WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said. "We had respected players take Utah +3, but they have also been hitting USC’s moneyline."

Midweek, USC is back down to -2.5. The Utah-USC total is up to 68 from a 66.5 opener at WynnBet.

"It has been all Over money thus far," Morrissey said.

Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET Friday on FOX and the FOX Sports App.

Patriot Games

Jumping to the NFL, the first game of the week is getting plenty of attention. The Buffalo Bills head to New England to meet the Patriots on Thursday night, and the short home ‘dog is a trendy play.

Buffalo is 8-3 straight up (SU) but a middling 5-5-1 against the spread (ATS). The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and bettors have fired away on New England ever since this line went up Sunday night at Buffalo -5.5. 

"The Patriots have been getting blasted all week," WynnBet’s Morrissey said. "We went to 3.5 [Wednesday]. I guess the Bills have an illness going through the locker room, so that could be part of it. But everybody with a clue has taken the Patriots so far. We need the Bills to cover badly."

The Sharp Side

In our weekly check-in with a professional bettor, he’s once again liking the Washington Commanders. The sharp player was on Washington -3 against visiting Atlanta last week, and while it wasn’t the most riveting win and cover, the Commanders got there with a 19-13 victory.

At 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX, Washington is on the road against the New York Giants in a key NFC East clash.

"I’m on Washington pick and -1.5," he said, noting this line is now up to Commanders -2.5. "The win against Atlanta was tough because of the weather. But the team is playing solid. Across the board, the Commanders are better than the Giants. Washington has confidence."

The Commanders (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) are 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. The Giants (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) have lost two in a row and three of four.

Other wagers this sharp bettor has on NFL Week 13 odds, noting some of these bets were on last week’s look-ahead spreads, so those numbers might be long gone:

Georgia-LSU, TCU-Kansas State, and Clemson North Carolina previews featuring Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports’ RJ Young is joined by Geoff Schwartz to preview the SEC, Big 12, and ACC Championship games.

Back to School

Heading back to the college football Week 14 odds market, the Big 12 title game is landing plenty of interest, though not quite at the level of Utah-USC. TCU (12-0 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) aims to secure a CFP berth when it meets Kansas State (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS).

It’s a quasi-home game for the Horned Frogs, who have only a short trip from Fort Worth to Arlington’s AT&T Stadium.

"Kansas State-TCU is another big one, with the same kind of deal [as Utah-USC]," WynnBet’s Morrissey said. "Respected players have taken Kansas State +2.5 and [Kansas State] moneyline, but there are also a lot of TCU moneyline bets trickling in."

The Big Ten title game takes place in Indianapolis, with Michigan (12-0 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) looking to lock down its CFP bid against Purdue (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS).

"We had respected players laying -16 with Michigan. We are currently at -17," Morrissey said.

Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX, which I assume means we get Gus Johnson on the call, which is always awesome.

NFL QUICK HITTERS

Morrissey gave a quick synopsis of action on a few more games on the NFL Week 13 odds board:

  • "The Vikings-Jets matchup was strictly Over bets at 42, and at every number on the way up, from respected players." The total peaked at 45.5 from all that sharp action, then backed up to 44.5 Wednesday night.
  • "We opened the Lions -1, and the masses hammered the Jags to -1.5. That’s our biggest liability right now. We will need the Lions to win as it stands currently."
  • "Our customers were betting the Packers before the [Aaron] Rodgers news and a good bit after he was announced probable. We are going to need the Bears to find a way to cover."
  • "We have a lot of early Raiders action from respected players at +2.5. It’s one of our bigger decisions as it stands right now, and we are currently at -1.5 on the Chargers. We will be rooting for [the Chargers] to win the game."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Other than the huge USC moneyline wager, sportsbooks haven’t yet reported much #MajorWager activity on this weekend’s games. It’s surely coming, though, as it always does.

The Week 12 NFL Monday Night Football clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts drew an inordinate number of six-figure bets at Caesars Sports. And most of those were on the underdog Steelers, including these three from just one bettor in Nevada:

  • $280,000 on Steelers +3.5 (-140)
  • $250,000 on Steelers +3.5 (-140)
  • $250,000 on Steelers +3 (-120)

Pittsburgh nabbed a 24-17 outright road win, and the high-roller turned a profit of $586,904.

One Colts backer had a much rougher night, dropping $275,000 on Indy -2.5. So as always, here’s a reminder to never bet more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the games this weekend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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