National Football League

NFC's best clash for trip to Super Bowl: Analyzing 49ers-Eagles showdown

Updated Jan. 26, 2023 2:06 p.m. ET

The Philadelphia Eagles have been rolling toward this moment since the start of this season. They've believed since training camp opened that they had the makings of a Super Bowl team.

They just couldn't have imagined that a San Francisco 49ers team that was 3-4 nearly halfway through the season and has played the last seven games with their third-string quarterback would be the last team to stand in their way.

That's where things stand, though, with the powerful Eagles (15-3) set to battle the red-hot 49ers (15-4) in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia (3 p.m. ET on FOX). A trip to Super Bowl LVII in Arizona on Feb. 12 will be on the line.

And the matchup couldn't be much better. The Eagles looked revived after pounding the New York Giants 38-7 in the divisional playoffs on Saturday night. The 49ers, who edged the Cowboys 19-12 on Sunday for their 12th straight victory, haven't lost a game since before Halloween.

It will pit the top two seeds in the conference, the top two defenses in the NFL, two top-five offenses, two top-10 rushing attacks, and two strong candidates for Coach of the Year. It'll also match the likely Defensive Player of the Year (49ers defensive end Nick Bosa) vs. an MVP candidate (Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts), too.

For more on this high-octane matchup, FOX Sports NFC East writer Ralph Vacchiano and FOX Sports NFC West writer Eric D. Williams take a closer look:

Ralph Vacchiano: I know how good Kyle Shanahan is as a coach, and I know the 49ers defense is incredible. But the one thing I have always believed is that to go on a real run in the playoffs, to win the really big games, teams need an elite quarterback. And I know there are exceptions, but it usually involves a quarterback playing at an elite level for a few weeks. I can't say I expected that out of Brock Purdy.

I know he's not the reason they beat Dallas last week, and he's not putting up numbers that remind anyone of Joe Montana. But 14 touchdowns and two interceptions in seven starts, including two playoff games? That looks pretty elite to me.

Purdy set to face his biggest test

Colin Cowherd predicts how Brock Purdy will perform against a tough Eagles team and their crowd.

Still, I lean toward thinking a rookie QB in his eighth start has no shot against Jalen Hurts and that loaded Eagles offense. Unless the 49ers defense carries him, I don't see how he matches Hurts play-for-play. But you tell me: Am I just underestimating this kid? Is he really this good?

Eric Williams: Like the player he replaced in an injured Jimmy Garoppolo, Purdy makes good decisions, gets the ball out quick and plays with poise. He probably has more movement ability than Garoppolo, but he's also not as familiar with the offense, which poses problems for San Francisco when opposing teams dial up pressure.

Is Purdy an elite quarterback that can put a team on his back and carry them to victory? Nope, but paired with an elite defense, along with explosive guys after the catch like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, Shanahan just expects Mr. Irrelevant to play within himself, deliver the ball on time to San Francisco's talented playmakers and take care of the football. Simply put, don't screw it up.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has quickly built the Eagles into a Super Bowl contender. What's his secret sauce to creating a championship-caliber culture in just his second season as head coach?

Vacchiano: Well, let's face it: Nick Sirianni had the most important ingredient in that sauce handed to him. He's got an all-star team in Philadelphia. The trenches were stacked when he arrived and the quarterback was at least in place. Then GM Howie Roseman went out and got him a $100 million receiver (A.J. Brown), a $45 million edge rusher (Haason Reddick), and any time he sees a hole he fills it (with additions like S C.J. Gardner-Johnson and DTs Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh).

That said, I think we've both seen plenty of coaches who couldn't manage a roster like that. Winning certainly helps. That's the key to any culture. But I think with Sirianni, his "secret" is letting the players be themselves and, to an extent, run themselves. Every guy in there feels free to flash his personality the way he wants, to say what he wants, and they all feel invested in what they're doing.

And they all feel accountable to each other – and especially to Hurts, who really is the heart of the team. In a lot of ways when it comes to leadership and culture and the locker room, Sirianni defers to him.

As impressed as I am with Sirianni, my pick for NFL Coach of the Year would actually be Shanahan. How has he kept things from falling apart despite losing his quarterback twice?

Williams: Shanahan's effort this season has been one of the more remarkable coaching jobs in the NFL in recent memory. Yes, he and general manager John Lynch put together one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. But it's easy to forget that second-year pro Trey Lance was supposed to lead this team on offense at the start of the year.

Which 49ers player is the top offensive weapon?

Craig Carton and Greg Jennings list their top-5 offensive players appearing in the NFC Championship Game.

However, Shanahan and Lynch had the foresight to talk Garoppolo into staying on as the team's backup and then think highly enough of Purdy to keep him on the active roster as the third-string quarterback in favor of Nate Sudfeld. As you mentioned, the 49ers were 3-4 near the midpoint of the regular season. But they weathered injuries to frontline players like George Kittle, Trent Williams, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel and Arik Armstead during the year with quality depth built through trades, free agency and the draft.

Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans has done a masterful job in putting together a fast, aggressive defense that takes the ball away built around edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. And Shanahan remains one of the top offensive minds in the game, creating a quarterback-friendly system that leans on the running game and finds mismatches for his bevy of playmakers. Like Philadelphia, Shanahan's 49ers are led by talented players that are empowered to take ownership of what happens on game days.

Speaking of defense, I'm interested to see how Bosa and the rest of San Francisco's defensive front matches up against one of the best offensive lines in the game in Philadelphia. What makes center Jason Kelce and the rest of that group so effective in protecting Hurts and creating space in the run game?

Vacchiano: That line really has it all. They're all strong. They're mobile – which is necessary considering how much Hurts is on the move. They're smart. Their techniques are excellent. And they're tough.

I think what makes them so effective, though, is the consistency they've had. Kelce and the tackles – Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson – have basically been playing together for three straight years. Guard Isaac Seumalo has been in and out of the starting lineup, but this is his seventh year in Philly. Guard Landon Dickerson is the new guy, but he's started 30 games over the last two years.

How wide is the gap between Hurts and Purdy?

LeSean McCoy compares both QB's skills and accolades, then explains why the gap is large between Hurts and Purdy.

Any offensive line that plays together that often, and of course has that kind of talent, is going to jell. They've got great chemistry and they make it work.

OK, before we get to predictions for this game, who on that 49ers team is the X-Factor? Who's the one guy beside the quarterback who really could turn this game for San Francisco?

Williams: If it comes down to the kicking game, veteran Robbie Gould is a perfect 29-for-29 on field goals in the postseason, including 4-for-4 from 50-plus yards. San Francisco's 40-year-old kicker has not missed an extra point in 15 playoff games.

However, when San Francisco needs a play in critical moments of the game, Samuel usually comes to the rescue. He had a huge, 74-yard run and catch for a score that swung momentum two weeks ago in his team's AFC wild-card win over the Seattle Seahawks. And in eight postseason games over three seasons, Samuel has totaled 741 scrimmage yards and three scores. The South Carolina product is hard to bring down and a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

Who is the X-Factor for the Eagles?

Vacchiano: The Eagles are a team loaded with weapons on both sides of the ball, but I think one guy gets really overlooked: tight end Dallas Goedert. I put him right up there with the top tight ends not named Travis Kelce in the NFL. He's a terrific receiver and he was on his way to a huge season before he hurt his shoulder late in the year.

He's the X-Factor to me because we know the Eagles can run and we know they've got two dangerous receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But if Goedert gets going, it's going to be a problem for that 49ers secondary, deciding who to cover. It also makes for some impossible choices when Hurts escapes the pocket. Does the defense chase him or stay back and make sure he doesn't dump off a short pass to Goedert?

He can impact this game without putting up big numbers at all.

OK, time for a prediction. I told you earlier that I think big games like this come down to the quarterbacks, so you know I'm going with Hurts and the Eagles. I also think the Eagles' pass rush might be the first to rattle Purdy. He hasn't faced a pass rush and secondary like this yet. The one advantage the 49ers might have is they run the ball well and the Eagles' biggest weakness all season has been the tackling of their run defense.

In this game, though, that'll only be enough to keep things close. I'm going with Hurts and the Eagles, 27-20.

And your prediction?

Williams: I picked San Francisco to win the Super Bowl before the season started, so even with a third-string quarterback I'll stick with my pick.

San Francisco certainly has an uphill climb to win on the road against one of the most complete teams in the league. But if the 49ers can run the ball effectively, steal a few possessions by creating turnovers on defense and get efficient play from Purdy under center, they have a chance to sneak away with a win. This game will be a defensive battle, 23-20 San Francisco.

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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