National Football League

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Nov. 22, 2023 1:26 p.m. ET

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The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) are heavy 11-point favorites versus the Washington Commanders (4-7) in a Thanksgiving battle of division rivals. 

The Commanders were taken down by the New York Giants 31-19 in their latest game, while the Cowboys dispatched the over-matched Carolina Panthers 33-10 in their Week 11 tilt. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Commanders and Cowboys — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Will Hill. 

Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Dallas (-11) 
• Pick OU: Over (47.5) 
• Prediction: Dallas 35 - Washington 14

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Will Hill

The Cowboys have earned a reputation as bullies. They beat up bad teams and often do so by a big margin. 

The point spread of 11 feels a bit inflated, as the Commanders are coming off a dreadful performance against the Giants, but Dallas getting to 30 here is a solid bet. 

The Cowboys are averaging over 30 points per game — good for second best in the league — while the Commanders are in the bottom five defensively, allowing nearly six yards per play. 

The 'Boys are at home and indoors, which are ideal conditions for its offense. I look for another big output from America’s Team. 

PICK: Cowboys TT Over 28.5 

 

The Dallas Cowboys face an uphill climb to the 2024 Super Bowl

How to Watch Dallas vs. Washington

• Game Date: Thursday, November 23, 2023
• Time: 4:30 PM ET
• Venue: AT&T Stadium
• Location: Arlington, Texas
• TV: Watch on CBS

Cowboys vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• Dallas has a 4-1 record against Washington in their last five matchups.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Dallas has scored 140 points, while Washington has posted 96.

Dallas Betting Info

• Dallas has played 10 games, posting seven wins against the spread.
• The Cowboys have been favored by 11 points or more three times this season, and covered the spread in two of those matchups.
• Dallas has combined with its opponent to gone over the point total in 60% of its contests this year (six times in 10 games with a set point total).
• The Cowboys have compiled a 7-1 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 87.5% of those games).
• Dallas is 2-1 (winning 66.7% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -600 or shorter.
• Looking at this contest's moneyline, the Cowboys' implied win probability is 85.7%.

Cowboys Stats

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

• Dak Prescott ranks eighth in the NFL with 2,604 passing yards through 10 games this year, averaging 260.4 per game with a 70.1% completion percentage and 19 touchdowns (third in the NFL) against six interceptions.
• He has tacked on 141 rushing yards (14.1 per game) and two touchdowns on the ground.
• CeeDee Lamb's 1,013 receiving yards this season (second in the NFL) have come from 95 targets and 74 receptions (fifth in the NFL). He's averaging 101.3 receiving yards and 7.4 catches per game, with five receiving touchdowns.
• Tony Pollard's output on the ground this season includes 590 yards and three TDs. He is averaging 59.0 yards per game and 4.0 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
• Pollard has received 40 targets in the passing game and has 33 catches (3.3 per game) for 209 yards (20.9 per game) and zero TDs.
• Jake Ferguson has racked up 386 receiving yards and four touchdowns with 39 catches on 55 targets. He's averaging 3.9 receptions and 38.6 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense, Micah Parsons has 10.0 sacks (seventh in the NFL) to go with 12.0 TFL and 37 tackles in 2023.
• Daron Bland has intercepted six pases (first in the NFL) and has added 38 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 12 passes defended.
• Damone Clark has recorded 64 tackles and 3.0 TFL this year. He leads the Cowboys in tackles.
• This season, Jayron Kearse has 47 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington has covered the spread five times over 11 games with a set total.
• Washington's games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this year.
• This season, the Commanders have been the underdog seven times and won three of those games.
• Washington has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +440.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 18.5% chance of a victory for the Commanders.

Commanders Stats

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• Sam Howell has passed for 3,038 yards this year (to rank first in the NFL), with 18 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 12 interceptions. He is completing 66.7% of his passes while averaging 276.2 yards per game and 6.9 per attempt.
• Howell has also rushed for two touchdowns and 209 yards (second on the Commanders).
• Brian Robinson Jr. has scored five rushing touchdowns, while totaling 558 rushing yards (4.0 per attempt and 50.7 per game).
• Robinson also has 27 catches for 314 yards (fifth on the Commanders), with three receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 33 times and averages 28.5 yards per game.
• In 11 games played this season, Terry McLaurin has 56 catches (5.1 receptions per game on 7.8 targets per game) for 644 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
• Jahan Dotson has 37 catches for 383 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He averages 3.4 yards per game through 11 games and has been targeted 63 times.

Defense

• In 2023, Kamren Curl has amassed 88 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack over 11 games.
• Jamin Davis has 75 tackles, 6.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception. He is second on the Commanders in tackles.
• Benjamin St-Juste has 1.0 sack in addition to his 1.0 TFL, 51 tackles, and one interception.
• Jonathan Allen's season stats include 38 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and 5.5 sacks in 11 games.

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NFL - Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys - 11/23/2023