National Basketball Association

Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:32 p.m. ET

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Fansided, Jared Woodcox/FanSided via Purple and Blues

Nov 23, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) drives to the hoop against Denver Nuggets guard Malik Beasley (25) in the fourth quarter at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Utah Jazz defeated the Denver Nuggets 108-83. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

As the Utah Jazz prepare to play their fourth game in five days, they could be in for a rough go in a road game against the Denver Nuggets.

After winning six straight games, and charging up the standings to a tie for fourth place in the West, the Utah Jazz appeared to be on a roll in a big way. However, that streak was suddenly put to an end in a tough loss to Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.

In a game that was neck-and-neck for all of 48 minutes, the Jazz fell short in the final seconds as Russell Westbrook nailed the game-winner with just over a second left in the game. What could have potentially been the most incredible game for the Jazz so far this season turned instead into a major heartbreak.

Nevertheless, the Jazz will have little time to hang their heads as they’ll be back on the hardwood once again tonight as they prepare to face a quickly-improving Denver Nuggets team in the second night of a back-to-back and the fourth game in five nights.

And that tough scheduling situation doesn’t bode well for the Jazz as even against OKC last night, several players looked simply gassed, including Utah’s two leading scorers George Hill and Gordon Hayward who struggled to have the impact that we’ve grown accustomed to. Just two nights removed from outmatching point guard Jeff Teague, Hill found himself very much outmatched by recent All-Star starter snub Russell Westbrook.

Therefore, in tonight’s game against Denver, which is a team that one would typically expect Utah to beat, they may be in for a tough go, having played so many games in such a short period of time. The combination of having to travel and play on tired legs could very well prove to be too much to overcome against a high-octane Nuggets team.

Winners of four of their last six, the Nuggets have sneaked their way into the Western Conference playoff mix by taking hold of the eighth seed despite holding just an 18-25 record.

Although they lost the last two games against the Jazz, Denver was able to run Utah out of the Pepsi Center in the two teams’ first meeting earlier this season in what ended up as a 105-91 Nuggets victory. And unfortunately, unless the Jazz put together a much better game than they did against OKC last night, the same thing could very well happen again tonight.

Nov 23, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) dunks the ball in the third quarter against Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Utah Jazz defeated the Denver Nuggets 108-83. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Key Match-up – Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic

In ways that are somewhat reminiscent of Rudy Gobert‘s early rise to stardom, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is steadily becoming one of the most dominant young big men in the league. Despite the fact that his ascension has gone largely under the radar, there’s no denying that his play has been a critical reason why the Nuggets currently find themselves in the playoff picture.

For the season, he’s averaging 15 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, but recently he’s been even better. In his last 12 games, he’s averaging a monster 23 points per game that has included a pair of 30-point outings while also grabbing an average of just over 10 boards per game.

He’s also an extremely efficient three-point shooter for a player his size and has been impeccable from the floor with a percentage of 59.6 percent on the season. As he continues to find his stride, it appears he’s likely to only get better and better.

Therefore, it’s quite clear that Rudy is going to have his work cut out for him. Unfortunately, Gobert is coming off somewhat of a quiet night where he finished with just 12 points and failed to continue his streak of double-figure rebounding games as he grabbed just nine boards. He also went just 2-of-7 from the foul line missing what would turn out to be crucial free throws.

Luckily, on several occasions this season, Gobert has been able to follow up quiet games with an absolutely incredible bounce-back game, so look for him to come out with an extra edge in tonight’s contest.

The Jazz will certainly need him to do so as he looks to slow Jokic and the Nuggets to help prevent Utah from dropping two straight games.

Dec 3, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz guard Dante Exum (11) drives to the hoop past Denver Nuggets guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) in the third quarter at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Utah Jazz defeated the Denver Nuggets 105-98. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Key Stat – Rebounds

The Denver Nuggets have been a solid rebounding team all season long and currently rank second in the NBA at 46.6 rebounds per game. Yet, last time these two teams faced off, the Jazz were able to barely edge out the Nuggets on the boards by a margin of 40-37.

This was undoubtedly a key contributor to Utah’s win as the Nuggets have typically been able to generate several points off of second chance opportunities which Utah was able to limit by doing a better job of rebounding. Still, just like their rebounding mark, the Nuggets are second in the league in second chance points at 15.3 per contest and can be very dangerous in this area.

And while the Jazz will no doubt be coming into this game fatigued after the brutal schedule they’ve faced, it will be an absolute necessity for them to find a way to take care of business on the boards. Otherwise, it’s likely that they’ll be quickly overpowered by a fresh Nuggets team.

In last night’s defeat, the Jazz were noticeably out-rebounded by the Thunder, particularly in a handful of critical situations which led directly to Utah’s demise. Unless the Jazz are able to find a way to control this aspect of the game against an even better rebounding team, they could be in for a long night against the Nuggets.

Dec 3, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) passes to center Rudy Gobert (27) as he is guarded by Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35), guard Jameer Nelson (1) and forward Wilson Chandler (21) in the fourth quarter at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Utah Jazz defeated the Denver Nuggets 105-98. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Key Performer – Gordon Hayward

The last time the Jazz and Nuggets faced off, Gordon Hayward was far and above the best player on the court as he finished with 32 points on 9-of-18 shooting from the field and 3-of-4 from deep.

And I fully expect Hayward to be the key guy this time around as well. He always seems to match up well against Denver’s leading scorer and starting small forward, Danilo Gallinari, and beyond him the Nuggets have few defenders that will be able to mark Hayward.

He’ll also likely be looking to bounce back from last night’s tough loss in which he struggled mightily to find his shot. Gordon went just 6-of-17 from the field and was a -17 for the night.

The Jazz definitely didn’t play anywhere close to their best basketball against the Thunder in last night’s loss and may struggle to do so again tonight given the fatigue they’ll be facing. Nevertheless, if Hayward is able to bounce back and Utah is able to fully lock in on defense, they may be able to overcome tired legs and grind out a win against the fast-paced Nuggets.

Dec 3, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Wilson Chandler (21) shoots the ball against Utah Jazz forward Joe Johnson (6) in the second quarter at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction – Nuggets 112, Jazz 106

As you may have picked up from my less than optimistic mood throughout this piece, I’m not liking Utah’s chances in this one. Not only did they look flat-footed in last night’s loss, but as I mentioned in my recently published Week Preview piece, this game has all the looks of what is often referred to as a “schedule loss.”

The fact that the Jazz had to play last night then jump on a plane and fly to Denver to play less than 24 hours later after already having played three games in four days does not bode well, especially given that Utah will be going up against a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the league and is historically solid on their home court.

Therefore, while Denver’s lack of defense will likely allow Utah to put up a decent amount of points, I can’t see them having the legs to be able to keep up with a relentless and well-rested Nuggets team and close out the game. Therefore, I’ll stick with my prediction from earlier in the week and pin Denver as six-point winners.

But to be honest, it’s a prediction that I don’t feel extremely comfortable with and it could be way off for a couple of reasons.

First, Utah is undoubtedly a better team than Denver and on a normal night I’d expect them to win big. If Gobert, Hayward and Hill end up coming out determined to shake off their lackluster performances from last night and the team as a whole overcomes and ignores their fatigue, the Jazz could pull of a big and somewhat surprising win.

Then again, the opposite could also be true and the run-and-gun Nuggets could find themselves picking apart an exhausted Jazz team and run them out of the building in blow-out fashion instead of the game ending up as the tight contest that I predicted.

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Whatever the case, it will be nice for Utah to simply get this nasty stretch of games out of the way and then look forward to a four-game home stand that will stretch out over the course of ten days, giving them plenty of opportunity to rest, recover and get back to their typically strong selves.

And while last night’s game was a heartbreaker and a tired Jazz team could very well drop a second contest tonight, even if that ends up being the case, they should be poised to go on yet another big run to end the month and lead into what ought to be a successful February.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com

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