National Basketball Association

Utah Jazz: A Way-Too-Early Look at Potential Playoff Match-Ups

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:31 a.m. ET

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Fansided, Jared Woodcox/FanSided via Purple and Blues

While the playoffs are still a ways off, it’s never too early to speculate who the Utah Jazz could potentially face in the first round of what should be their first postseason appearance in five years.

Although the Utah Jazz haven’t looked nearly as formidable lately as they were beginning to make fans believe they would be in the earlier part of the season, with a 30-19 record on the year and a solid hold of fifth place in the West, there’s plenty to be excited and optimistic about for this up-and-coming squad.

They’re currently in a great spot in the standings as they enjoy a somewhat comfortable game and a half lead over the sixth place Thunder and are just a half-game behind the fourth place Clippers, meaning that their chances of moving up are pretty solid, especially given that the Clippers will face the Warriors, Celtics and Raptors in three of their upcoming four games.

And although Utah has struggled immensely against some of the top teams in either conference, they’ve been much better this year at beating inferior teams and therefore have built up their formidable record.

Considering that as well as the fact that eighth place in the West is a long ways down with the Nuggets sitting 7.5 games behind the Jazz, barring an unforeseen collapse of monumental proportions, Utah should be well on their way to the playoffs for the first time since 2012.

The real questions that remain now are where will they finish in the West and which potential first-round playoff match-up would be the most favorable for them. Given the fact that falling to the eighth seed and taking on the Warriors in the first round seems pretty near impossible at this point, I’m going to rule that match-up out in this analysis.

However, seeds four through seven all seem quite possible for the Jazz to finish and while one or two are essentially out of the question, you never know if Utah will get hot and/or Houston will slump and they could somehow sneak into that third spot.

But regardless of whether or not that happens (and I seriously doubt it will) here’s a look at what we could expect from a potential first-round match-up for the Utah Jazz against each plausible Western Conference foe.

Nov 4, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz guard Rodney Hood (5) defends against San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard (2) during the first half at Vivint Smart Home Arena. San Antonio won 100-86. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Jazz vs. Spurs

Depending on which Jazz team we get for the majority of the rest of the season – the squad that manhandled the Thunder in December and beat the Cavs earlier this month or the one that has struggled to beat bad teams and buckled to both OKC and Memphis last week – falling to the seventh seed is by no means out of the question.

Before this past week, Utah had won six straight and looked poised and ready to bust up the Western Conference standings. But after losing to both the sixth-seeded Thunder and seventh-seeded Grizzlies in the same week, there’s a legitimate fear that Utah could find themselves tumbling below those evenly-matched Western Conference foes.

If that is the case, barring some strange turn of events with the current top-three seeded Warriors, Spurs and Rockets, the Jazz would find themselves matched up against the daunting San Antonio Spurs in the first round.

The last time the Jazz played the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs was in 2012 in which the Jazz were promptly swept. If that same match-up occurred this season, it could very well end in the exact same result.

However, the season series between these two teams is currently tied at one apiece with the Jazz winning their first contest in San Antonio in several years. Nevertheless, with such a savvy veteran squad, a superstar in Kawhi Leonard and arguably the best NBA coach of this generation in Gregg Popovich, this battle-hardened and playoff-tested Spurs team would likely not find the Jazz to be much trouble at all in postseason play.

Of course the last few months of the season could prove otherwise for either team, but for the most part this is a match-up that the Jazz should undoubtedly hope to avoid in the first round if possible. If they can claw their way out of their recent slump to at least hold on to at worst the sixth seed for the rest of the season, that would help them get a much more favorable match-up.

However, the Jazz still have two more games against the Spurs this season to help us get a better feel of how well or poorly the two teams may match up against one another as they’ll play in San Antonio on April 2nd and in Salt Lake City on April 12th in the last game of the season.

There is a chance that in that final game, depending on the playoff picture at that point, either team could potentially be resting key guys in preparation for the start of postseason play. But hopefully at least the game on the 2nd will give a better feel for how well Utah can hold their own against San Antonio.

Yet, while in the first contest the Jazz were able to run away with a victory, the Spurs looked more prepared and much more like themselves in the second contest that saw them pummel the Jazz in Salt Lake City. So regardless of what happens in April I’m going to stick with the notion that this would be a bad match-up for the Jazz.

Jan 28, 2017; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Vince Carter (15) and Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) battle for the ball in the third quarter at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Memphis Grizzlies defeated the Utah Jazz 102-95. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Jazz vs. Grizzlies

Depending on how the Western Conference standings play out, there’s a number of ways that the Jazz and Grizzlies could end up playing one another in the first round of the playoffs. However, given that I find it unlikely that either team jumps up to the third seed, they would most likely meet as the fourth and fifth seeds in the West.

If this ended up being the case, of course the hope would be that the Jazz were the fourth seed and the beneficiaries of home court advantage in the first round. However, oddly enough, the Jazz are 0-2 this season at home against Memphis, but did manage to steal one game on the road.

Still, Utah lost the regular season series in disheartening fashion, falling 1-3 to the Griz.

Although these teams play similar styles at a slow pace and with a heavy emphasis on defense, Utah has struggled to match the Grizzlies’ daunting grind-it-out approach, so one could argue that this is a less than favorable first round match-up for the Jazz.

On the flip side, however, each of Utah’s losses to the Grizzlies was by single digits and two of the three could very well be considered “schedule losses” as they came at the end of or immediately following a grueling five-game road trip.

Therefore, since those defeats were truly closely contested for nearly the entire 48 minutes, perhaps with home court advantage in a playoff series that gave both teams a more level playing field in terms of rest, the Jazz would find themselves plenty capable of defeating the Grizzlies.

While that could be the case, Memphis’ team-wide playoff experience and sturdy defense would still make them a tough playoff opponent for a young Jazz team. Facing off against the Grizzlies in the first round certainly wouldn’t be the worst match-up for the Jazz and in fact I think Utah would be capable of beating them, but I also think there’s more favorable potential match-ups (which we’ll cover soon) than a grueling best-of-seven series against Memphis.

Oct 30, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) and Utah Jazz forward Derrick Favors (15) battle under the basket in the second half of the game at Staples Center. Clippers won 88-75. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Jazz vs. Clippers

The Clippers are an extremely difficult team to judge as their constant bout with injuries this season has made their record and their location in the standings a bit misleading. If they can enter the postseason with a fully healthy Chris Paul and Blake Griffin along with their supporting cast in tact, they could certainly prove to be one of the toughest teams in the league.

Therefore, while this team is one that could find itself slipping in the standings, it’s not a squad that any team, even one that is up higher in the standings, should want to face as they could become much more dangerous than their seed implies.

While once again it would be most likely that Utah would face the Clippers if these teams found themselves at the fourth and fifth seeds, it’s also possible (though not likely) that one gets hot and rises to the third spot while the other drops to the sixth.

Regardless of how it happens, this is certainly not a playoff match-up that I would like for the Jazz if the Clippers are able to get healthy and start to peak in time for the playoffs. Though we have only seen them go head-to-head on one occasion back in the third game of the season, Los Angeles was able to thoroughly outmatch the Jazz in that contest and they’ve certainly had their way with the Jazz in recent seasons.

Since 2011-12, the Utah Jazz are just 2-16 against the Clippers and were swept in three out of the last five seasons. Utah has simply had no answer for the likes of Paul and Griffin and if these teams were to meet in the first round of the playoffs, it’s likely that the more experienced Clippers would have their way once again.

Of course, the Clippers have built a reputation of choking in the playoffs and there’s no telling what their state of health will be at that point given the ups and downs they’ve had all season with injuries, but in all likelihood, this is another match-up that wouldn’t be all that great for Utah.

These two teams will face off three more times before the end of the season as they’ll meet on February 13th, March 13th and March 25th, and perhaps those games will change the potential playoff outlook. But considering LA’s recent dominance over the Jazz, I wouldn’t hold my breath of those games having much effect on what would likely be a poor playoff match-up for Utah.

Jan 23, 2017; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) dribbles the ball in front of Utah Jazz guard George Hill (3) during the first half at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Jazz vs. Thunder

While the first three match-ups have looked somewhat less than favorable, these last two look somewhat better in my opinion. Although the Jazz have played the Thunder just twice so far this season and have split the season series at a game apiece after Utah wasn’t able to defend home court in the second contest, I still like their chances in a first-round match-up against OKC.

Utah’s first victory over the Thunder was a resounding 20-point victory and the most recent loss saw Utah blow several chances as well as a sizable lead in the fourth quarter before falling to Russell Westbrook and Co.

Not to mention, that latest loss came during a brutal stretch of the schedule for the Jazz while the Thunder were coming in off of four days of rest.

Taking all that into consideration, I truly think Utah matches up well against the Thunder and would particularly do so in a best-of-seven series. While Russell Westbrook in playoff mode would make for a scary opponent, for the most part Oklahoma City doesn’t have many other weapons that are all that overwhelming. Therefore, Utah’s depth would more than likely be able to cause Westbrook and the Thunder problems over the course of a playoff series.

If Westbrook were to run out of gas or even have a couple of off games during the series, the Jazz could very well find themselves arising victorious based purely on the sheer number of bodies that they’d be able to roll out each night to keep fresh and challenge a Thunder team that beyond Westbrook is less than stellar.

Utah’s team-first approach is certainly more likely to hold up in the postseason than Oklahoma City’s heavy reliance on Westbrook so this match-up could turn out quite well for the Jazz. Again, they’re most likely to meet as the fourth and fifth seeds so nabbing home court advantage with that fourth seed would be absolutely critical for the Jazz.

Yet with two contests left between these two teams on February 28th and March 11th, my opinion that the Jazz match up well against OKC could very well change based on the outcome of those games, but from what we’ve seen in their two contests on the season so far, this would be my preferred match-up for the Jazz out of the previously mentioned options.

Nov 29, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) is fouled by Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) while driving to the basket during the third quarter at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Utah Jazz win 120-101. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

Jazz vs. Rockets

The Houston Rockets have quite honestly been a pretty significant surprise so far this season. Under head coach Mike D’Antoni and in moving James Harden to the point guard position the Rockets have thrived up to this point in the year and currently are solidly in third place in the West.

And though a lot could change between now and the end of the season, given that Houston is three games behind the Spurs for second, while holding a decent 3.5-game lead over the fourth place Clippers, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see them stand pat at third place for the remainder of the season.

If that ends up being the case, then the Jazz would have to fall to sixth in order to play the Rockets in the first round. While this might not sound ideal given that Utah would find themselves playing against a higher seed than in the probable four/five match-ups that I described earlier, this is actually a scenario that I like quite a bit.

Of course missing out on home court advantage in the first round would be a shame (unless by some miraculous twist of fate the Jazz finish third and the Rockets fall to sixth, but don’t count on it), but I actually think Utah matches up better against Houston than the other four teams I’ve brought up so far.

The 2016-17 season series is currently knotted at one apiece between these two teams, so the contest in Houston on March 8th could end up being very telling. Nevertheless, given Utah’s ability to slow down the game and take the Rockets out of their groove because of their style of play, I like Utah’s chances in this match-up.

Furthermore, while Houston is known as a solid scoring team, they’re by no means reputed as a defensive force. Therefore, the Jazz offense would very likely be able to thrive while relying on their staunch defense to cause problems for the Rockets throughout the series, much like what occurred in Utah’s commanding 120-101 victory over Houston earlier in the year.

Also, Houston leads the league in three-point attempts by a significant margin, shooting 39.5 per game, which is over six more than the second place Warriors. However, Houston isn’t necessarily a spectacular three-point shooting team as they rank tenth in the league and interestingly enough, the Jazz just so happen to lead the league in limiting opponents to the fewest three-point attempts and makes per game.

Thus in this area, Utah matches up extremely well against the Rockets’ perimeter-heavy offense and particularly in postseason play when the game seems to slow down and rely more on half-court execution, I could see the Jazz very well upsetting the third-seeded Rockets in a best-of-seven series.

The other good thing about falling to sixth place and finding themselves in this match-up is that it would allow Utah to be in the bracket in such a way that they would avoid playing Golden State until the Western Conference Finals.

Of course, I’m probably getting ahead of myself by even considering that as a positive aspect of the match-up given that Utah would likely have to get through the Spurs in the second round in order to advance anyway, but you never know what might happen in the playoffs and I don’t think it can be argued that it’d be best to stave off a contest against the Warriors for as long as possible.

Therefore, while Houston is undoubtedly having a great season and the Jazz would most likely have to drop to the sixth seed to have to play them in the first round, this is actually the match-up that I believe fits Utah the best and would give them the best chance to advance.

More from Purple and Blues

Nevertheless, as the title of this piece indicates, this truly is a way-too-early look at the potential playoff picture. There’s plenty of regular season basketball left to be played and a lot of unknowns and surprises that could take place between now and the end of the season.

Not to mention, the Jazz still have a lot of work to do for even one of the supposedly favorable match-ups to end up turning out well for them. But based on what the Jazz and their Western Conference foes have shown us so far, I believe their best options in the first round will be to face either the Thunder or the Rockets.

That isn’t to say they’d definitely defeat either of those two opponents or that they couldn’t beat one of the aforementioned three, but it’s more than likely the best shot they’d have.

Yet at the end of the day, the Jazz can’t worry about match-up scenarios and will need to simply control what they can by winning as many games as possible. Regardless of who they face in that first round of the playoffs, they’ll need to come in fully prepared and no matter what will be in for a challenging yet exciting task as they look to push their way into the second round.

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