National Basketball Association

Tourney hype means little to NBA

Published Mar. 25, 2010 6:26 p.m. ET

foxsports

Each year at this time, the NCAA's Big Dance inspires many basketball followers to identify which college players might be trying on glass Nikes during the NBA Draft in late June.

Well, that's what we're presuming. Doesn't it make sense that these nationally televised auditions -- now in the Sweet 16 phase -- often turn the tide for prospects previously dribbling and drop-stepping a bit under the radar?

"You might think that," said one college scout currently employed by an NBA Western Conference team, "and you'd be wrong in most cases. The people typically making the assumption that the hot player during March Madness is just starting to captivate pro teams out of nowhere are media types and fans.

"We can go back to guys like Juan Dixon, Mateen Cleaves, Tyus Edney and John Wallace who just killed it during the NCAA Tournament," he said. "How much did they do in the NBA? How many of them ended up in the lottery?"

So, our recruited NBA expert has just informed us that comprehensive analysis by guys like him means there are few prospect surprises this time of year.

"Pretty much," he said.

For some of the players from so-called mid-majors, the tournament can give NBA teams a better idea of how they can handle bigger and better athletes from the so-called power conferences. For example, when St. Mary's goes up against a big and athletic front line from Baylor, we'll know more about how Omar Samhan might do in the league. Then again, it might be tough for Samhan to show what he can do one-on-one on the block because Baylor likes to zone and probably will have someone standing in front and behind him ... unless the Bears are unable to do that and close out on the Gaels' legion of shooters.

"That sounds about right," the scout said. "I've been watching Samhan develop over the last couple of years and the things he does -- in terms of footwork in both directions, keeping the ball high, creating space with his upper arms with both hands on the ball when turning to the hoop -- are impressive. But while he's been the most productive big in the tournament so far, the NBA is a run-and-jump league in many ways. That doesn't mean he won't make it, because we have vertically challenged and speed-challenged guys who've made it; it just means that when you're drafted is more about how you project than how good you might be right now."

And even though I concede the run-jump portion of the scout's explanation of the NBA Draft landscape, the uncertainty of talent projection based more on physical attributes than basketball skill is why so many team presidents and general managers select first-round busters every year.

"Believe me, the final choice on draft night often is not close to what some scouts have recommended," the scout said. "Good big guys usually win in our league, so a lot of personnel guys really reach when a decent, or at least athletic, big guy comes along. And bigs often take much longer to develop -- look how long it's taken Andrew Bogut to really start to dominate -- while the guys who draft or coach them in their early years get fired."

With that cheery truth on the table, let's take a look at some of the players still working in the Sweet 16 who have summoned the interest of the scout and his professional cronies. With a nod to our scout's opinion on the difference between college and pro basketball, the aforementioned auditions can be compared to TV actors reading for roles on Broadway.

We'll open with a list of little-known (in terms of premature draft lists) players we'll refer to as The Risers even though our scout is almost insulted by the premise. Then we'll take a look at hotshots such as John Wall and Evan Turner and bring it home with the middle-of-the-roaders.

THE RISERS