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The Buck Stops Here Roundtable #7: 2016-17 Predictions

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:47 p.m. ET

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In the latest edition of our staff roundtable series, we reflect on the Snell trade, highlights of the Milwaukee Bucks’ preseason campaign and make some bold predictions for the season ahead.

Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

We made it. The long and treacherous off-season is over and the start of the 2016-17 NBA season is just hours away. It’s time to get excited as the Milwaukee Bucks kick-off their campaign on Wednesday night at home against the Charlotte Hornets (7PM Central).

But before Giannis and Jabari hit the court, there’s no better way to celebrate the start of the new season than getting the team at Behind The Buck Pass together to discuss Milwaukee Bucks basketball and make their boldest predictions for the year ahead.

So that’s exactly what we did. This week I was lucky enough to be joined by site expert Adam McGee and staff writers Lukas Harkins, Rohan Katti, Tom Pheister and Jordan Treske for the seventh instalment of ‘The Buck Stops Here’ roundtable.

Specifically, we shared our thoughts on the trade that sent Michael Carter-Williams to the Chicago Bulls in exchange for Tony Snell and whether we believed Milwaukee won the trade, or just wanted to move on from the 2013-14 Rookie of the Year.

The focus then shifted to the Bucks 2016-17 Pre-Season, where we highlighted some of the more prevalent positives and negatives that each of us took away from the six game campaign.

Subsequently, we began firing out predictions about the upcoming season, starting with players who we expect to become surprise contributors for Milwaukee this year. Following up from the previous roundtable, we then gave our definitive win/loss record predictions and assessed the Bucks’ chances of making the playoffs.

To finish, we each make our boldest Bucks prediction for the season ahead. Warning, takes may be hot.

Read on to hear all of our answers!

As always, lets us hear your thoughts and feedback. Drop a comment below or shoot us a tweet at @BehindTheBucks.

Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

What are your overriding impressions of the MCW/Tony Snell deal? Did the Bucks win the trade, or were they just more interested in moving on?

Jordan Treske (@JordanTreske): I’m hesitant to say they “won” the trade, but it was ultimately the necessary move to make, especially after losing Middleton. As we talked about on last week’s Win in 6, I think the trade speaks more to the Bucks conceding the MCW experiment than it does speak on how they view Snell. That’s not a knock on Snell by any means, but it was becoming clear that salvaging MCW’s fit within the team was hard to overcome with everything considered.

That’s what the trade came down to in my eyes. It’s not about the quality of the players, it is and will always be about fit and there’s more ways to envision Snell making a positive impact/fitting in with how the team is constructed than there were for MCW.

Rohan Katti (@rkattijr): The MCW/Tony Snell trade was absolutely about moving on from Michael Carter-Williams. It has been clear for a long time that the Bucks organization had been trying to trade MCW, but they could not find the right deal for him. Since he is a former Rookie of the Year, it’s not surprising that the Bucks were looking for a good deal.

However, the NBA market proved that MCW was not worth much, so Tony Snell is the best they could do. I do like Tony Snell though, he can defend and hit threes, so maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needed.

Lukas Harkins (@hardwiredsports): It’s hard to say that any team truly “won” this trade, especially since we are yet to see either player in their new situation. Both players are under 26-years-old and there is still time for them to adapt to a different environment and succeed. As for Michael Carter-Williams, I do not think that Chicago is a good fit, especially with Rajon Rondo holding down the starting spot. The Bulls already lack shooting, and giving up a shooter for a non-shooter seems to be going in the wrong direction.

As for Milwaukee, this trade showed that MCW had such little value throughout the NBA landscape. Tony Snell is a fine addition, but it is nothing great. I think it is fair to say that the Bulls got the better player out of this deal, but the Bucks received the better fit. Without Khris Middleton, Snell will likely start for Milwaukee as well as play the most minutes per game in his career. He is a solid defender and knocks down the three with consistency.

He saw his three-point shooting decrease from 37.1% to 36.1% from Year 2 to Year 3, but he also struggled mightily from the corner last season. After shooting 41.1% in 14-15, he dropped to 30.6% last season. If that number goes back up, we might see him have a career year from beyond the arc, which would be incredibly valuable to the Bucks.

Milwaukee really wanted to get rid of MCW, and grabbing a starter for this season who could have a future with the team is certainly a positive.

Tom Pheister (@BucksPhanTom): I was a bit disappointed that the Bucks traded MCW for Tony Snell. While Snell’s skill set is undoubtedly a better fit with the Bucks core, I feel like the disparity in skill level more than offsets that. Essentially, I think MCW is a better player than Snell, and it is hard to feel like the team really improved by making this trade. Perhaps the additional opportunities that Snell will find here will result in a jump in his level of play. But I’m not counting on it.

Adam McGee (@AdamMcGee11): I think ultimately it was a deal made out of necessity. I feel like they wouldn’t have minded keeping MCW around a little longer, but ultimately wing depth became a much more pressing need for their chances this season than an alpha point guard who could look to seize control of the offensive unit as a scorer.

It’s always too soon to declare winners in the immediate aftermath, but I will say I think this is a good deal for the Bucks. I’ve long been of the opinion that MCW held little to no value around the league, so in getting Snell to fill a more pressing need, they did fine. If Snell beds in, improves and signs an extension to be a key bench piece for years to come, then the Bucks will have won the deal regardless of what MCW does elsewhere. Snell is hypothetically a good fit for the Bucks, practice proved that MCW wasn’t.

Tim Wray (@TRW24): I think we all seriously hoped that MCW could overcome the questionable fit and become a quality sixth man contributor for the Bucks this season, but ultimately it seems like the front office conceded that it was going to continue to be problematic for the team going forward, especially with the injury to Khris Middleton.

To a certain extent, I also think the deal says a lot about the Bucks lack of confidence in giving starters minutes to Vaughn or throwing Brogdon in the deep end from opening night. As Lukas said, the Bulls got the better player, but the Bucks received the better fit. If anything, I don’t understand the Bulls motivation behind the move because it does little to improve their already sparse three-point shooting back court.

In Snell, Milwaukee gets desperately needed flexibility between the shooting guard and small forward positions, decent on-ball defense and another respectable three-point shooter. From this point of view, the Bucks won the trade by addressing their needs and weaknesses whereas the Bulls only gained more questions.

Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

What or who stood out to you as your biggest takeaway from pre-season?

Jordan: I rather focus on the positives than the negatives to save us all time as well as keep up the good feelings for the start of the season, so I’m going with Jabari’s play throughout the preseason. While there wasn’t anything groundbreaking in his performance throughout the preseason, seeing Jabari come out of the gate as a consistent scorer was reaffirming what he had done after the All-Star break last year (Jabari averaged 17.2 points per game in the preseason).

Obviously with Middleton out, there’s more added pressure on Jabari to step in and possibly become the team’s top/go-to scorer this season. If what he did in the preseason is a taste of what’s to come in the regular season, I think that would leave all Bucks fans satisfied with how far he’s come since returning from his injury just a year ago.

Rohan: Jabari Parker easily stood out for me the most during the preseason for the Bucks. Going on stats alone, he led the Bucks in points, rebounds, and minutes per game. Parker clearly looks like he is ready for an enlarged role this season, especially in light of the Khris Middleton injury.

If Jabari can come close to his pre-draft hype of the next Carmelo Anthony type four, Bucks fans should be delighted to see what this kid can do.

Lukas: After signing with the team this offseason, I thought both Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic looked extremely comfortable with the team during the preseason. Teletovic has absolutely no hesitation on his jump shot as well as being very proficient from behind the arc. As long as Telly stays healthy, his ability to stretch the floor both in transition and in the half court will help Giannis and Jabari attack the basket.

As for Delly, he not only looked sharp from three, but also as a playmaker. He seems to have developed great chemistry with the other players on the team, which allows him to throw alley-oops and dish out for three-pointers with great accuracy.

Tom: The Bucks have some guys that can make three pointers! And maybe, just maybe, Jabari Parker is one of them. Though even if he isn’t, Jabari showed more than enough to keep hopes of a breakout season alive. He looked fantastic! There were worrying offensive lulls in several games and consistency was a bit of an issue on both ends, but that is sort of the nature of the pre-season beast.

Adam: Jordan sort of stole my thunder on this as I’ve talked him to death on the podcast in recent weeks with my burgeoning love for Jabari, but I thought he was great in preseason. Consistency is the key for him moving forward, and although effort and desire have always been there for him, it’s his understanding of the game that at these early glimpses looks to be improving.

I feel Jabari’s no-nonsense, all business demeanor is important for this team. The Bucks have a great mix of personalities in the locker room, and lots of guys who want to win, but I think Jabari has something different. For the most successful, it’s often not the desire to win that drives them, but a fear of losing. Jabari HATES losing, and that leaves me very excited for his future.

Tim: Major Positives – Everything about Jabari. The ease with which Giannis dominated his man on the inside. The impact of Delly’s fluid ball movement and shooting. Teletovic’s willingness to fire from anywhere behind the three-point line. A couple of games with solid contributions from Henson (+7.3 net rating). Novak’s 187.1 offensive rating and +79.8 offensive rating.

Disappointing Negatives – Vaughn shot 15.4% from the field and 11.1% from deep (although he only played two games due to injury). Monroe’s missed lay-ups. Beasley’s shot selection is as bad as advertised. Plumlee did not look anything like the 2015-16 PlumLord. Thon averaged under 15 minutes per game.

Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Either as starters or off the bench, which player or players do you expect to surprise this season by being more important than anticipated?

Rohan: Michael Beasley is a guy who I think can outperform his expectation. However, he is not expected to do very much so that is an easy thing to say. Watching Beasley in the Bucks preseason games, I saw Beasley take and make good shots, and I saw him take and miss horrible shots. There were many instances where he could have passed the ball to a wide-open shooter, but he decided to take on a double team and miss the shot. That being said, If Beasley can provide a scoring punch off the bench and reduce his ball-hogging antics, I think he could find himself getting more minutes.

Jordan: Admittedly, it’s hard to just pick one because I think there are more than a few to choose from. Players like Delly and Teletovic were already important after they were signed in the summer, but that’s been turned up a notch in the wake of Middleton’s injury (yells MOTIEJUNAS to the heavens and shakes fist in the air). Same goes for the recently acquired Tony Snell, who will be slotted into the starting lineup once the season gets underway, according to Jason Kidd.

If I had to go with one though, I’m going with Malcolm Brogdon. I’ve been trying not to make the same mistake we all made last year with Rashad “he’s going to be in this league for a long time” Vaughn with Brogdon coming into this year. However, the trade of Michael Carter-Williams has changed that for me since it’s made Brogdon much more important playing as the team’s backup point guard.

It’s an incredibly small sample size, but Brogdon’s poise as a playmaker has been a pleasant surprise in the early glimpses we’ve seen of him in a Bucks uniform. With the Bucks needing Delly around both Giannis and Jabari (seriously, all of his minutes should be with either one or both of them), getting quality backup point guard minutes is key for them and I think Brogdon is quickly showing that he’s qualified to handle that challenge.

Lukas: Although it might seem surprising given my love for Malcolm Brogdon, but I’m going to say Rashad Vaughn. With Middleton out, he is going to see even more minutes than he played last season. He might not be a great player, but he has incredibly low expectations going into this season. He seems to be so disliked across the Bucks’ fanbase that it is hard to find anyone who is excited to see Vaughn play.

He is still just 20-years-old, and maybe he will be more accustomed to the NBA game this time around, especially considered how hard he hit the rookie wall a year ago. Even looking competent for 15-20 minutes per game would be progress, and I think he can achieve this. Sitting behind Delly, Snell, Brogdon, and Terry will give him plenty of competition and should bring out the best in him.

Tom: I am so very tempted to say it will be Thon Maker. So very, very tempted. And I do think he will have a role to play. But I think that the Buck whose contributions will outstrip expectations by the most is going to be Mirza Teletovic. He came in with the reputation of a gunner, and he did not disappoint on that front. But he also showed the ability to drive the ball, and he really competed both defensively and on the boards.

Adam: I’m with Tom on this, but I’m going to give into temptation. Thankfully both the team and the fanbase seem to have settled in at a place where expectations are incredibly low for Thon this season, and that’s the only way to approach it. With that low bar, I think he’ll impress with how he can be a defensive focal point in the second unit and maybe knock down some mid-range jumpers too.

The other player I’d mention is Jason Terry. I have a lot of confidence in Jet to continue making shots this season and to be something of an unofficial spokesman for the team both on the court and in the locker room. When J-Kidd chimes in with his canned answers about basketball players and jerseys, I think we’ll be able to rely on Jet to tell us what’s really happening, just as the Bucks will be able to rely on his impact off the bench.

Tim: This was tough. I want to say Dellavedova and Teletovic, but just from small glimpses during the pre-season, you can already see that they’re going to make significant contributions to the Bucks this season, especially from behind the three-point line. Similarly, I’m tempted to name Brogdon because I think he’s going to improve as the season rolls on and become a valuable piece of the rotation, particularly as a relief play-maker and perimeter defender. However, truly embracing the ‘surprise’ element of the question, I’m going to go with Snell.

I can’t speak for all Bucks fans, but I think I’m fairly safe in assuming that Snell has little to no expectations on his shoulders heading into the season, despite being the likely starter at shooting guard on opening night. Now, I’m not saying that he’s going to replace Khris Middleton’s output, but I do think (hope) he’s a fair chance of providing decent on-ball defense and solid three-point shooting in what should be career-high minutes for him this season. Like Middleton, Snell’s biggest strengths are the Bucks most prevalent weaknesses, so if he can take advantage of this change of scenery and fill the low-usage, 3-and-D role that he’s been brought in to play, I believe Snell could really surprise us all.

Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

What will the Bucks record be by the end of the 2016-17 season and how will they have arrived at that point? Will the team look closer or further away from their ultimate goals?

Rohan: My final prediction for the Bucks record this season in 40-42. This may seem a little high considering that their leading scorer in Khris Middleton is out most/all of the season, but I’m banking on Giannis and Jabari building on the second half of last season. Also, the addition of Matthew Dellavedova should provide the guard play the Bucks were lacking last year with Michael Carter-Williams.

It’s hard to say if this season will be a success or not because of the Middleton injury. Khris is a large part of the Bucks future, which means that the Bucks can’t completely gauge how close they are to becoming a championship contender. However, the organization can see how far Giannis and Jabari are along in their respective developments.

Jordan: Ah, I’ve been dreading this but the time has come. As the summer was going on, I was becoming more optimistic about the Bucks’ chances this season and even thought they could vie for a playoff spot with the necessary improvements and a couple of breaks heading their way.

Of course, the Middleton injury has changed all that for pretty much everyone, including myself and it’s reshaped the team’s expectations heading into the year.. That’s why I’m going with 36-46 for my record prediction.

I partially don’t want to feel the sting of building up expectations only to see them crumble like we all did last year as soon as the season began and there’s ways for the Bucks to exceed the current expectations that surround them right now (i.e. Giannis and Jabari reaching near All-Star levels or a Monroe trade going down). But ultimately, losing your most indispensable player for least a good chunk of the year like the Bucks did with Middleton is so much to overcome that it changes what defines this year as successful or not, at least to me anyways.

Lukas: As much as I want to be optimistic here, I don’t see the Bucks having a tremendously good season. We did a lot of good things in the offseason, but losing Middleton is just so huge for the entire roster. I see this year as just another opportunity for the team to let our young players succeed. Although it might not help us win games all the time, I want to see Thon Maker get plenty of chances to prove himself on the floor. I think there is no better way to learn than in-game experience, and if he is to be a major part of our future, he should get those opportunities sooner rather than later.

With that, I don’t see us making any massive improvements from last season. There should be exciting moments in every game, but consistency is key in the NBA, and I don’t think the team is there quite yet. After a 33-win season last year, I think that we finish with a 35-47 record.

With the team leaning heavily on Giannis and Jabari all season, we should become more secure in our feelings on what the team could be in the next few years.

Tom: Up until Khris Middleton’s injury, I thought the Bucks would be a few games above .500. And though the loss of Middleton is huge for the Bucks, I am hopeful that we will see players step up to fill the offensive void.(I am looking at you, Jabari Parker) Perhaps I am looking at the upcoming season through green and cream colored glasses, but I think the Bucks are going to break even this year. 41-41, and hopefully good enough for a playoff spot.

Adam: I hit rock bottom in terms of hopes for the team after the Middleton injury, but cumulatively I’ve really liked how the moves since have plugged holes in the roster.

I believe in this team (I know, famous last words) and I think they’ll be competitive enough to get by, as long as they don’t have to deal with any more major injuries. I have the Bucks at 40-42. That could see them just miss the playoffs, but it’ll be good enough to put them in the hunt and give them meaningful games down the stretch as they continue to improve.

Tim: 36-46.

Yep. The Khris Middleton injury hurts, a lot. The Bucks should have been expected to flirt with a .500 record and contend for one of the final playoff spots in the East. Instead, we’re in for another year of ‘development’. Giannis and Jabari will have plenty of opportunity with the ball in their hands and the addition of Dellavedova and Teletovic ought to make Milwaukee a better team than last year, but ultimately fall short of the playoffs yet again.

Apr 3, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34), forward Jabari Parker (12) and guard Tyler Ennis (11) during the game against the Chicago Bulls at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Chicago won 102-98. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

What is your boldest prediction in regard to Milwaukee’s season or any Buck as an individual?

Rohan: My bold prediction for this season is that Giannis and Jabari both shoot at least 30% form three. During the preseason, both Antetokounmpo and Parker showed little hesitation when shooting from long range. Their strokes look good and you can expect them to connect on some open looks this season.

Jordan: Well, I’m normally a man of reason and I carefully compose my thoughts with great detail, but I will play along. My bold prediction: the Bucks will have a twenty (or more) point per game scorer this year.

Ready for a little trivia? Who can name the last Bucks player to average twenty (or more) points per game for an entire season? (someone suggests Brandon Jennings) WRONG! (someone suggests Monta Ellis) WRONG AGAIN! (someone suggests Francisco Elson) Francisco, you can’t keep naming yourself for every Bucks question I ask. (end scene)

The answer: Michael Redd, back in 2007-08 (Redd averaged 22.7 points per game that year and it was unfortunately his last season of full health). Now I feel less confident naming who will take up this task, but I’m going with Jabari Parker to just get over that 20 PPG mark. If it happens, then hooray for everyone (but especially me). If he falls short of it, then I’ll remind everyone that I’m not a magic 8-ball, contrary to what many believe (okay, I made that last part up).

Lukas: Giannis Antetokounmpo will lead the NBA in triple-doubles.

He had an outstanding second half of last season, and continuing that success will not be easy to replicate. Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Draymond Green will also grab plenty of triple-doubles this year, but with the Bucks adding more shooting in the offseason, Giannis should see an increase in his assist ratio on the whole.

Giannis finished last season with 5, and it is possible that he could double, or even triple, that number this year.

Tom: Together, Giannis and Jabari will average over 40 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists per game. Split them up as you see fit.

Adam: I’m going to go really bold with Malcolm Brogdon to lead the team in steals. The rotation virtually guarantees that he’s going to get minutes as a first or second guard off the bench, and with his combination of strength, pressure and high IQ, I feel he’ll lead the team in steals if he gets anywhere close to the 18-20 minute per game mark.

(This answer may have been influenced by many of my first thoughts already having been taken by the time I got to answer!)

Tim: Giannis will be an All-Star. Jabari will win the Most Improved Player Award. End of Discussion.

What are your Bucks predictions for the season? Let us know in the comments below!

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