San Antonio Spurs 2016-17 Season Outlook: Cheating Death


<img class="size-large wp-image-62051" src="//cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/82/files/2016/06/tim-duncan-tony-parker-patty-mills-lamarcus-aldridge-kawhi-leonard-nba-toronto-raptors-san-antonio-spurs-850×560.jpg" alt="Apr 2, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Patty Mills (8) and center Tim Duncan (21) and forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) and forward Kawhi Leonard (2) and guard Tony Parker (9) celebrate during the second half against the Toronto Raptors at the AT&T Center. The Spurs defeat the Raptors 102-95. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports” width=”590″ height=”389″ /> Apr 2, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Patty Mills (8) and center Tim Duncan (21) and forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) and forward Kawhi Leonard (2) and guard Tony Parker (9) celebrate during the second half against the Toronto Raptors at the AT&T Center. The Spurs defeat the Raptors 102-95. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The San Antonio Spurs enter 2016-17 without the face of their franchise, but these Spurs are every bit the contender as their predecessors
The San Antonio Spurs died five years ago. Entering the 2011 playoffs, the Spurs had secured the 1-seed with a Western Conference-best 61 wins. These Spurs would eventually have to get through a Lakers team coming off three straight Finals appearances, but all signs pointed towards another classic deep Spurs playoff run.
The Memphis Grizzlies had other plans. As an upstart 8-seed, the Grizzlies overwhelmed the Spurs in the first round with their inside attack. The Spurs lost in six games. For only the third time in league history, the first seed was sent packing in the first round.
In fact, the year prior, the Spurs faced an equally tough fate. Having fiercely battled the Suns for the larger part of the previous decade, San Antonio found themselves matched up once more in a postseason contest with Steve Nash and company. While these match-ups were always close, the Spurs always managed to come out on top.
Not this year. The Suns finally vanquished their demons and defeated the Spurs in a lopsided sweep.
The Spurs hadn’t won a title since 2007, and even then the victory came against a clearly over-matched Cleveland team consisting of LeBron James and 11 lucky fans in Cavaliers jerseys. The signs were all there. These Spurs had run their course.
A great run to be sure though. Winning one NBA championship takes the perfect storm of talent and chemistry. Winning two titles takes the next level of commitment – digging down and replicating that same desperate hunger all over again. The Tim Duncan Spurs won four titles. Four! The Tim Duncan-Tony Parker-Manu Ginobili experience had reached its denouement, but they left a permanent impression on the NBA.
It’s sad to watch a perennially great team wilt in real time, but all great things must come to an end.
Yet here we are, half a decade later. Tim Duncan has walked off into the sunset and the Spurs might be better than ever.
Make no mistake – those plodding, defense-minded, slow paced Spurs did die in 2011. With that death, a new identity was born. All credit to Coach Greg Popovich for proactively morphing his team on the fly when his roster talent called for it. Duncan remained great, but Popovich realized that the totality of his team would benefit from playing through Tony Parker.
Once a grind-it-out slow-paced playbook, the Spurs offense now predicated high-octane ball movement. These Spurs would net a fifth and final title for the trophy case.
With this core no longer able to carry the load of offensive or defensive responsibilities, the Spurs handed the franchise keys to a new driver: Kawhi Leonard. More on him later. For as successful as the Spurs have been over Tim Duncan’s career, this rendition of San Antonio basketball set the franchise record with 67 regular season wins last season. That’s right.
The Spurs employed one of the best basketball players in history for 19 years and won their most games ever in year 19! Incredible.
It has become an annual tradition to peg every new season as the year the Spurs finally regress. Do not make this mistake in 2016. Even with the departure of Tim Duncan, the Spurs still possess the talent and the infrastructure for another NBA Finals run.
Jan 12, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Tony Parker (9) and forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) walk to the bench during the third quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Spurs win 109-99. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
The Starting Lineup
Apart from Duncan, the 2016-17 Spurs starting lineup has remained intact. Tony Parker, the longtime engine of San Antonio’s offense, enters his 16th season. Parker is no longer his former dynamic self, but still remains capable of running a team offense effectively. Parker may only be a borderline double-digit scorer in 2016-17, but still poses enough of a threat theoretically to keep defenses honest.
Parker’s midrange shot and floater promise to still be useful tools in the Spurs playbook.
Parker’s backcourt mate, Danny Green, fills in many of the holes created by the Spur’s point guard. Green had an off year shooting the three in 2015-16, but his career percentages suggest he should remain a proficient three point shooter this season.
This will prove important, as much of the offensive action the San Antonio Spurs run is predicated on having long range threats along the perimeter. Green also remains a lockdown defender on the wing. Few players have such an innate knack for collecting blocks and strips in transition defense.
The frontcourt of the San Antonio Spurs received a bit of a facelift this offseason. Filling in the vacant role at center is newly-acquired Pau Gasol. For years, Gasol has played as an ideal Spur. A pass-happy big with a soft scoring touch who is open to playing a team system.
The Gasol-San Antonio marriage promises to be a happy one. Gasol has the ability to operate at both elbows in the low post while just as comfortably popping out on screens for open jumpers.
However, for all the skills Gasol brings to the table on offense, the Spurs should regress on defense. Tim Duncan had long been a stalwart protecting the paint – even in his old age. Losing one of the greatest defensive player ever obviously hurts. Gasol won’t lock anyone down one-on-one, but he has shown over the last two seasons with the Bulls that he can plug himself into a scheme, make proper rotations, and hold down the paint.
The other starting big, LaMarcus Aldridge, will often be the featured piece of the offense. The Spurs are obviously no stranger to a two-big offense (see: Duncan and David Robinson). The main concern of playing two players of this size is clogging the paint. Like Gasol, Aldridge has a great outside shot, occasionally even extending to the three point arc.
In the paint, Aldridge can also feast in single coverage opportunities. Most power forwards in the NBA cannot stop Aldridge once he gets deep position under the basket. Aldridge also proved last year he could function well on defense with Duncan. Playing alongside Gasol will call for more responsibility, but Aldridge is mobile enough to cover the extra ground.
Apr 30, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs point guard Patty Mills (8) shoots the ball over Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Cameron Payne (22) in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
The Second Unit
Perhaps the greatest asset of the San Antonio Spurs in recent years has been a system which utilizes the entire roster. Consistently strong bench units have given Greg Popovich the luxury of resting players liberally.
Manu Ginobili inked a contract during free agency to return for what will likely be his final NBA season. In Year 15, the expectations for Ginobili are similar to those for Tony Parker. At times, Ginobili will show flashes of his old brilliance. On other nights, Ginobili will play like the 38-year-old veteran he is. Ginobili may be past the days where he can consistently offer double digit scoring, but the savvy veteran provides a seasoned guile able to salvage broken plays with creative passes and drives.
The backup point guard, Patty Mills, may often look even more capable than the aging Tony Parker. Mills is a speedy guard and a sharpshooter in spot-up and off the dribble situations. A career 39 percent three point shooter, he will provide essential spacing to the Spurs’ offense. Mills is every bit the defender Tony Parker is – which may not be saying much, but should be remembered considering Popovich’s well-known short leash for his players.
Patty Mills may often see the court in place of Parker this upcoming season.
The remaining portions of the bench blend veteran experience with young potential. Kevin Martin will be a turnstile on defense but can provide useful outside shooting. The newly-acquired David Lee has looked lost in the NBA for nearly two years, but can presumably provide a scoring punch for second units if given the opportunity.
Young guns Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons do not share the shooting touch of many of their teammates, yet provide important defensive versatility.
Simmons and Anderson can both fluidly switch through positions on defensive screens. Dejounte Murray, the Spurs’ first round pick out of the University of Washington, should also see the court this year.
Greg Popovich has experimented with three point guard rotations in the past with Nando de Colo and Cory Joseph, so it’s not out of the question to expect the dynamic Washington guard to be trusted with significant minutes.
Kawhi Leonard
For all the good the rest of the rotation can offer, however, the success of the franchise rides of Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is the heir to the Duncan throne – the new poster child of the San Antonio Spurs. For all the talk of the “force of nature” physicality of LeBron James and Russell Westbrook, Leonard possesses natural gifts nearly as unparalleled.
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Kawhi Leonard’s disruptive on-ball presence is historically effective. Beating Leonard off the dribble is a nearly impossible task in a half court setting. Leonard is also a hawk in passing lanes, able to snatch errant passes with lightning reflexes. Kawhi Leonard is the NBA’s best defender. By the end of his career, he may be considered one of the best defenders in league history.
Leonard has also transformed his offensive game in the past few years to become a picture of efficiency. Leonard’s outside shot was a question mark looming over his draft stock coming out of San Diego State. Improving every season, Leonard is now one of the NBA’s premier long range scorers. Leonard shot over 44 percent from three in 2015-16 as well as over 87 percent on free throws.
These numbers are astounding for a forward, let alone for a player with Leonard’s defensive responsibilities. Leonard’s explosiveness on defensive also translates to the offensive end, where he can rise over opponents for powerful finishes in the paint.
On paper, Kawhi Leonard is the perfect NBA player. The totality of his skillset is unmatched. Though, the NBA does not play out on paper. Basketball is a nuanced game. It ebbs and flows. It plays on emotion, necessitated on players rising to abstract challenges. Gone are the days where Leonard can just be a nice piece in a collection of nice pieces. Kawhi Leonard is now the lifeblood of the Spurs organization.
Regardless of what happens with Leonard, the Spurs will be a good team in 2016-17. There is too impressive an organizational body of work to suggest otherwise. However, the Spurs are not in the business of fielding good teams. The Spurs want to be great. They want to be championship-ready.
They can be, but that level of success is solely dependent on Kawhi Leonard. The team will go as far as he takes them. Leonard could win the MVP this season – he clearly has the talent. And that’s why it’s okay to ask so much of him. He’s capable. This upcoming season will answer a less explored question: is he ready?
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