National Basketball Association

Philadelphia 76ers: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Philadelphia 76ers rebooted the rebuilding process, hiring Bryan Colangelo as general manager in April following the resignation of Sam Hinkie, whose process continues with a boatload of young players and draft picks.

Jun 24, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers number one overall draft pick Ben Simmons during an introduction press conference at the Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia 76ers finally bottomed out in 2015-16, finishing with the NBA’s worst record at 10-72 (one off the franchise’s own NBA record for losses in a season) and landing the top overall pick in the NBA Draft.

It was the full realization of a plan engineered by former general manager Sam Hinkie–who resigned on April 6–to crash and burn in order to gain high lottery picks and rebuild.

The irony of it was that it was the first time since the reboot of the club began in the spring of 2013 with Hinkie’s hiring that the 76ers actually finished with the worst record and landed the top pick.

Moving forward under new president of basketball operations and general manager Bryan Colangelo, a former NBA Executive of the Year with the Toronto Raptors in 2006-07, the 76ers have a glut of young bigs, a dearth of NBA-level guards and a gigantic uphill climb ahead.

The good news for 2016-17 is that the 76ers should be much, much better than their 2015-16 counterparts. The bad news is that will keep them mired near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

The team used that No. 1 overall pick on Australian import Ben Simmons, a player some have compared to Magic Johnson and others to Lamar Odom.

Simmons played a single season at LSU, averaging 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. The Tigers missed out on postseason play despite Simmons’ presence.

He joins a cast of first-round talent that includes Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, a French forward who signed a rookie-scale deal with Philadelphia atfer being selected 24th overall.

And then there are the five bigs who all have first-round credentials:

The frontcourt rotation still has to be sorted out by coach Brett Brown, whose ability is vastly undersold simply by looking at his 47-199 record in three seasons in Philadelphia.

The backcourt, meanwhile, appears to be led by journeyman Jerryd Bayless, signed as a free agent after spending the last two seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks.

2015-16 Vitals

10-72, 5th in Atlantic Division, 15th in Eastern Conference
97.4 PPG (29th)/107.6 OPPG (29th)
98.8 Offensive Rating (30th)/109.2 Defensive Rating (26th)

Team Leaders (minimum 42 games)
Scoring: Jahlil Okafor 17.5 PPG
Rebounding: Nerlens Noel 8.1 RPG
Assists: Ish Smith 7.0 APG
Steals: Nerlens Noel 1.8 SPG
Blocks: Jerami Grant 1.6 BPG

Honors
All-Rookie (1st): Jahlil Okafor

Oct 8, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Nerlens Noel (4) brings the ball up court with center Jahlil Okafor (8) and guard Hollis Thompson (31) during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Wells Fargo Center. The 76ers won 115-114. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Anthony Barber, G
Jerryd Bayless, G
Robert Covington, F
Joel Embiid, C
Jerami Grant, F
Gerald Henderson, G
Richaun Holmes, F
Shawn Long, F
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, G-F
T.J. McConnell, G
Nerlens Noel, F-C
Jahlil Okafor, C
Brandon Paul, G
Tibor Pleiss, C
Sergio Rodriguez, G
Dario Saric, F
Ben Simmons, F
Nik Stauskas, G
Hollis Thompson, G-F

Offseason Additions
Anthony Barber (undrafted free agent, North Carolina State), Jerryd Bayless (free agent, Milwaukee Bucks), Gerald Henderson (free agent, Portland Trail Blazers), Sasha Kaun (trade, Cleveland Cavaliers), Furkan Korkmaz (No. 26 overall draft pick, Turkey/Anadolu Efes), Shawn Long (undrafted free agent, Louisiana-Lafayette), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (No. 24 overall draft pick, France/Mega Leks {Serbia}), Brandon Paul (free agent, FIATC Jovenhut {Spain}), Tibor Pleiss (trade, Utah Jazz), Sergio Rodriguez (free agent, Real Madrid {Spain}), Dario Saric (No. 12 overall draft pick in 2013, Anadolu Efes {Turkey}), Ben Simmons (No. 1 overall draft pick, LSU), James Webb (undrafted free agent, Boise State).

Offseason Departures
Elton Brand (free agent, unsigned), Isaiah Canaan (free agent, Chicago Bulls), Carl Landry (waived), Sasha Kaun (waived), Kendall Marshall (trade, Utah Jazz), Tibor Pleiss (waived), Ish Smith (free agent, Detroit Pistons), Christian Wood (free agent, Charlotte Hornets).

Quick Thoughts

The 76ers currently have 19 players on the roster, but more questions than answers in the backcourt.

It appears the plan is to let Jerryd Bayless and Sergio Rodriguez (who last played in the NBA in 2009-10 before returning to Spain for the last six seasons) hold down the fort at the point until Ben Simmons–who projects as a point forward type–is ready to take over the reins of the offense.

Nik Stauskas, meanwhile, is teetering on  bust status after going eighth overall in the 2014 NBA Draft.

The Canadian who played two seasons at Michigan was brought in from the Sacramento Kings in a trade in July 2015 as a floor spacer and a sharp-shooter, but that 32.6 percent mark from deep last season (which was an improvement over the 32.2 mark he put up as a rookie) belies that.

Stauskas got 35 starts and 24.8 minutes per game, but managed a Player Efficiency Rating of 9.2, posted a negative Value Over Replacement Player value of minus-0.7 and posted exactly 0.5 Win Share.

Meanwhile, the flash mob that makes up the frontcourt will have to sort itself out at some point.

Jun 24, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers number one overall draft pick Ben Simmons (R) is greeted by center Joel Embiid (L) during a press conference at the Philadelphia College Of Osteopathic Medicine. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. About All Those Bigs …

The Philadelphia 76ers have five lottery picks from the last three drafts on the roster who play either center or power forward. With only 96 minutes a game available at those two spots and none of the players having the skill set to play the 3, how does the logjam get broken?

Five lottery picks, two positions.

Such is the plight of the Philadelphia 76ers entering the 2016-17 season.

The incumbents are Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel, who teamed up for 44 games and 15.2 minutes per game last season and posted a less-than-sterling net rating of minus-20.0 as a tandem.

Ben Simmons, the No. 1 overall pick, played two Summer League games in Utah and four in Las Vegas and was the playmaker he was advertised to be.

But Simmons also turned the ball over 5.3 times a game in the ragged Vegas circuit and missed his lone three-pointer.

In the six games combined, Simmons was 22-for-61 from the floor (36.1 percent).

The wild cards are Joel Embiid, whose last competitive game was March 1, 2014, while a freshman at Kansas, and 2014 first-round pick Dario Saric, who played the last two seasons in Turkey.

Embiid told Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Enquirer last month that he feels 100 percent.

Saric skipped Summer League in order to help the Croatian national team reach the Olympics.

He averaged 14.0 points, 10.0 rebhounds and 2.2 assists in a whopping 36.2 minutes per game, shooting .444/.182/.700 to lead Croatia through its qualifying tournament in July.

Saric then helped the Croatians to a fifth-place finish in Rio de Janeiro with averages of 11.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 33.1 minutes a game, shooting .431/.263/.593.

General manager Bryan Colangelo said in July that it was likely one of the centers would be traded, but told SiriusXM NBA Radio he wouldn’t make “a bad deal” for the sake of getting the roster cleared.

Okafor has been the subject of trade rumors for some time, with a lot of buzz about him going to the Boston Celtics, but those fires seem to have cooled, according to a report in the Boston Herald in late July.

Noel, meanwhile, created a ruckus when he took down the Philadelphia skyline image he had been using as a banner on his Twitter account and when he tweeted:

At this point, Colangelo has been true to his word–not making a deal just for the sake of making a deal. But with none of the quintet of bigs, outside of Saric, possessing any sort of three-point range and the NBA in the midst of the pace-and-space era, it seems something will have to give.

Mar 21, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Jerryd Bayless (19) calls out a play during the second quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Storyline No. 2: Point Guard Roulette

After bringing back Ish Smith in a trade with the New Orleans Pelicans last Christmas Eve, the Philadelphia 76ers experienced one of the most fascinating “bad-good” seasons by a point guard.

On one hand, Smith produced–14.7 points, 7.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 32.4 minutes per game in the 50 games he played after the trade.

On the other hand, Smith was good for 2.6 turnovers a night, shot just 40.5 percent overall, 33.6 percent from three-point range and 66.9 percent at the line–a dreadfully poor number for a guy with the ball in his hands so much.

Throw in a minus-9.2 net rating and Smith gave away as good as he took.

The 76ers let Smith walk in free agency (he signed to back up Reggie Jackson with the Detroit Pistons) and brought in a pair of journeymen veterans in Jerryd Bayless and Sergio Rodriguez.

Bayless had the best three-point shooting campaign of his career for the Milwaukee Bucks last season, hitting 43.7 percent–good for fourth in the NBA–but was limited to 52 games because of a knee injury.

Rodriguez, meanwhile, turned 30 in June and is back in the NBA for the first time since 2009-10, when he played in 66 games for the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.

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He doesn’t bring a lot of upside with him, but he’s a dependable backup point guard. However, that’s his ceiling, too.

Bayless, meanwhile, could be the sort of floor spacer who could excel in an off-ball role at whatever point coach Brett Brown turns the reins of the offense over to first overall pick Ben Simmons, who is an extraordinary playmaker at 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds.

Bayless hit 46.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities last season in Milwaukee and was even better in those situations from behind the arc, 47.7 percent, according to NBA.com‘s Player Tracking.

In any event, Bayless and Rodriguez won’t be as explosive as Smith. But they will also be much less likely to detonate in the faces of the Sixers, as well.

Jul 12, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Ben Simmons (25) dribbles the ball during an NBA Summer League game against the Golden State Warriors at Thomas & Mack Center. Golden State won the game 85-77. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Storyline No. 3: The New Kids

Ben Simmons will get the lion’s share of the attention this season, as befits a player deemed worthy of being selected first overall.

But the Sixers will have at least three rookies on the opening-night roster. Besides Simmons, there is the arrival of draft-and-stash pick Dario Saric and the surprising addition of French swingman Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot.

Early speculation had Luwawu-Cabarrot returning to Europe for another season, at least, but the 21-year-old signed a rookie contract on July 2.

In eight Summer League games in Salt Lake City and Las Vegas, Luwawu-Cabarrot averaged 8.9 points and 3.0 rebounds in 23.5 minutes, shooting .369/.278/.765.

He shot 36 percent from deep in Serbia last season, playing for Mega Leks, on 5.3 attempts per game. That was a significant improvement from 29 percent on 2.2 attempts in 2014-15 while playing in the French second division.

So he’s improving … rapidly. But coach Brett Brown suggested to NBA.com in July that Luwawu-Cabarrot could see extensive time with the Delaware 87ers of the D-League.

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Last season he averaged 11.5 points in 61 games across all levels of competition for Anadolu Efes in Turkey, also pulling down 5.6 rebounds in 23.1 minutes per game while shooting .488/.407/.859.

Saric also got a ton of playing time for Croatia’s national team during pre-Olympic and Olympic competition.

Efes was a step up in level of play for Saric from his time in the Croatian domestic league and the Adriatic League while with KK Cibona, but he handled the transition well and started 94 of the 126 games he played for the Turkish club over the last two seasons.

Now the question will be how quickly he makes the transition to the world’s highest level of play in the NBA.

Apr 10, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown goes over a play with his team during the third quarter of the game against the Milwaukee Bucks at the Wells Fargo Center. The Milwaukee Bucks won 109-108 in OT. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case Scenario

Ben Simmons takes the NBA by storm, putting up the second consecutive dominating Rookie of the Year performance by the top overall pick (following up the work done by Minnesota Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns in 2015-16).

Jerryd Bayless provides the steady hand and veteran leadership at the point guard spot that was lacking and general manager Bryan Colangelo finds a buyer at solid value for either Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, while Joel Embiid shows the two-year wait was worth it with an All-Rookie campaign.

More from Hoops Habit

With strong contributions from another veteran acquisition in Gerald Henderson, the 76ers exceed their victory total of the last two seasons combined (28) and while they don’t make a dent in the Eastern Conference playoff race, they show their beleaguered fan base that there are indeed brighter days ahead.

Worst Case Scenario

Embiid’s injury troubles aren’t over and the big man returns to the sidelines for another extended period. Meanwhile, the Noel-Okafor-Saric-Simmons logjam at the 4 and 5 remains unresolved deep into the season.

Bayless’ numbers from last season in Milwaukee turn out to be fool’s gold; he’s solid, but his three-point percentage is much closer to the 34.7 percent career mark he brought into last season than the sterling 43.7 percent he put up in 2015-16.

Simmons has trouble acclimating to the NBA, particularly on the defensive end, where he finds himself on the wrong end of matchups with quicker, stronger players.

Henderson struggles to adapt to being back with a losing club after all those year with the dreadful Charlotte Bobcats and is a non-factor off the bench. And Nik Stauskas remains much more well-known for the typographical-error nickname “Sauce Castillo” than he does for his play.

Apr 12, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Philadelphia 76ers forward Robert Covington (33) makes a three point shot past the outstretched hand of Toronto Raptors guard Norman Powell (24) in the first half at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

The 76ers just have too many moving parts, but still take a huge step forward in 2016-17.

The question is whether a 25-win campaign will be enough for Brett Brown to keep his job (he should, if anything the guy deserves hazard pay for what he’s gone through since coming on board in 2013).

Philadelphia will still be the worst team in the Eastern Conference, but they will be much closer to the top of the conference than they have been since Sam Hinkie began to detonate the roster in the summer of 2013.

Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid will have moments of brilliance interspersed with the obligatory “welcome to the NBA, rook” learning experiences and both will land on the first team All-Rookie squad.

It’s still an odd roster and even a trade of Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor doesn’t completely address that. Plus there are still the concerns about a backcourt that is made up of journeyman vets and young players who don’t have the highest of ceilings.

But the process lives on, even in the absence of its creator.

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