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Over/Under? Vegas Projected Win Totals Released for 2016-17 Regular Season

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released its projected win totals for the 2016-17 NBA regular season. Who will go over and who will go under?

Jun 13, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) and Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) during the third quarter in game five of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

As the 2016-17 NBA regular season approaches, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook came out with its yearly preseason projected win totals for 2016-17.

It wasn’t much of a surprise, but the Golden State Warriors were the highest, at 66.5 wins.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs came in at 56.5, tied for second-most.

The Brooklyn Nets are projected to finish dead last at 20.5.

Every year, different teams exceed and fail to live up to expectations.

In this article, we’ll take a look at each of the divisions in basketball and where each team is expected to finish, based on the Vegas odds.

This is strictly for entertainment purposes, but I’ll provide my thoughts on whether I believe each team will go over or under their projected win totals in 2016-17, with a brief explanation behind each pick.

Before we start, it should be noted that in 2015-16, 16 teams went over, while 14 went under their projected totals.

A few of the teams where Las Vegas got it totally wrong were the Charlotte Hornets, who won 15.5 more games than they were projected to, the New Orleans Pelicans, who finished 17.5 games below expectations, and the Portland Trail Blazers, who won 17.5 more games than projected.

Let’s get started with 2016-17.

Oct 30, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry (7) drives the ball against Boston Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas (4) defending during the 2nd quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Atlantic Division

Toronto Raptors 49.5 wins

Under.The Eastern Conference looks to be much more competitive and balanced this season with teams like Boston, Indiana, and Chicago  adding key pieces to their rosters.

Boston Celtics 50.5 wins

Over.  The addition of Al Horford makes the Celtics one of the top three or four teams in the East. The Celtics won 48 games in 2015-16 and added an All-Star-caliber player to go along with rising stars, Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder.

New York Knicks 38.5 wins

Under. Although the Knicks have the potential to be in the playoff race, ask Bulls fans about basing the success of a season around the health of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah.

Brooklyn Nets 20.5 wins

Over.  Although the Nets aren’t going to have much to look forward to in 2016-17, the Jeremy Lin signing may turn out to be one of the better moves of this summer.

The only way I could see Brooklyn winning fewer than 21 games is if Brook Lopez goes down for more than half the season due to injury, which is possible, given his track record.

Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 wins

Under. Even if Ben Simmons has a great year and Jahlil Okafor continues his impressive individual performance from 2015-16, there are far too many holes on this roster for me to believe they are going to improve 18 full games from last season.

They might be a better second half team, once their young players get more experience under their belt, but look for more growing pains this season.

Feb 1, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) guards Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Cavaliers won 111-106 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Central Divsion

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 wins

Over. Sooner or later, people will learn not to bet against LeBron James. Although the Cavs will not be going full steam ahead in the regular season, they are far and away the best team in the Eastern Conference and it will more than likely take somewhere in the range of 55 to 60 wins to finish with the top seed.

If the Cavs go under, it will only be by a game or two.

Indiana Pacers 43.5 wins

Over. My jaw dropped when I saw the Pacers are only expected to win 43.5 games. They won 45 games in 2015-16 and just added Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson. This is one of the most off-base projections of the entire list, but then again, they’re the experts.

Detroit Pistons 45.5 wins

Under. Although the Pistons had an impressive 2015-16, winning 44 games, they did not upgrade their roster enough to keep up with the improvements around them in the Eastern Conference, especially in the Central, where teams like Indiana and Chicago should end up with better records than last season.

Chicago Bulls 38.5 wins

Over. The Bulls won 42 games in 2015-16 and it was a disappointing season. Although they lost Rose, Noah, and Pau Gasol, Jimmy Butler is a superstar-caliber player, Rajon Rondo is still one of the better point guards in the league and does anyone honestly believe Dwyane Wade would let his team fall below 38 wins?

Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 wins

Under. The Bucks should be slightly improved from an underwhelming 33-win season in 2015-16, but in my opinion, did not make big enough improvements to push them to 40 wins.

It doesn’t help that they play in one of the better divisions in the league, where they’ll have eight tough matches against Cleveland and Indiana.

Jan 11, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) dribbles past Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) in the first quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Southeast Division

Miami Heat 36.5 wins

Under. This is a bit of a coin-toss in my opinion, but injuries and question marks about the health of the team lead me to believe Miami will underachieve. If Chris Bosh can play at a high level, Miami is a playoff contender, but that’s too much of a gamble to put too much faith into.

The injury to Josh Richardson is devastating to start the season. Hassan Whiteside will prove that he can’t be the number one star on a team with any hopes of contending.

Atlanta Hawks 43.5 wins

Under. Although Paul Millsap, Kent Bazemore, and Dennis Schroder are a great combination, the Dwight Howard signing may prove to be one of the worst offseason moves in 2016. Is it possible for Howard to prove critics wrong?

Of course, but my feeling is the Hawks are in for a rude awakening this season.

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Charlotte Hornets 39.5 wins

Under. After an impressive 2015-16, the Hornets lost Lin and Jefferson, who played important roles. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are the two remaining stars, but beyond that, the roster leaves much to be desired.

Washington Wizards 42.5 wins

Over. The Wizards have too much talent to barely finish .500. This season should feature a resurgence from John Wall and Bradley Beal, who have some solid pieces around them, including Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris and Otto Porter Jr.

Although the Wizards won’t be one of the top three teams in the East, I see them finishing with the best record of any team in the Southeast and grabbing the fourth or fifth seed.

Orlando Magic 36.5 wins

Over. This is a bit of a coin toss, but my feeling is that based on the diminishing talent in the Southeast, the Magic will play well within their division.

They won 35 games in 2015-16 and although losing Victor Oladipo could prove costly, the frontcourt rotation of Nikola Vucevic, Serge Ibaka, Aaron Gordon, and Bismack Biyombo will be fun to watch.

Head coach Frank Vogel always seems to get his teams to overachieve and I expect the Magic to be close to .500.

Dec 5, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) drives through San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili (20) and San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard (2) during the game at FedExForum. San Antonio Spurs beat Memphis Grizzlies 107 – 101. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Southwest Division

San Antonio Spurs 56.5 wins

Over. The Spurs already were a great team without the addition of Pau Gasol. They won 67 games in 2015-16 and Tim Duncan did not even have a particularly great season. Although I don’t expect another 67-win season, somewhere around 60 seems probable.

LaMarcus Aldridge is fully acclimated to his surroundings. Kawhi Leonard is an MVP candidate. I expect a big year out of Pau, even at age 36, as the system is tailor-made to his style of play.

Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 wins

Over. Aside from the Spurs, the Southwest looks pretty weak this season. The Grizzlies won 42 games in 2015-16 with a decimated roster, and just added Chandler Parsons.

The addition of Parsons, having a healthy Marc Gasol, and a motivated Mike Conley Jr. will make the Grizzlies an interesting rival to watch in the division. Those matches between the Gasol Brothers will be must-watch TV.

Dallas Mavericks 39.5 wins

Under. The signing of Harrison Barnes appears to be such an obvious waste of money. Maybe Barnes will exceed expectations, but he’s not going to live up to a maximum contract.

Aside from Dirk Nowitzki, now 38 years old, no one on the roster can be trusted to lead a team when points are hard to come by. My feeling is this team will be selling off pieces by the trade deadline.

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Houston Rockets 41.5 wins

Under. If Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson both stay healthy, they might contend for a playoff spot. Those are two big question marks. If the track record of Gordon continues, he’ll miss significant time and the Rockets will be left wondering how that could have gone wrong.

Maybe James Harden can carry the team on his back, but it won’t be a surprise if they finish below .500.

New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 wins

Under. Anthony Davis needs some help. Jrue Holiday is going through a serious family situation, in which basketball is the least important priority on his list, but the starting point guard is one of the few reliable players other than Davis on the roster.

They lost Gordon, Anderson, and didn’t make substantial moves to fill those gaps. The Pelicans won 30 games in 2015-16 and it may be even worse this season.

Feb 27, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) drives on Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) during the first quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 wins

Over. Despite the loss of Kevin Durant, the Thunder have a great all-around team left in tact. The trade for Victor Oladipo addresses a major hole in their roster from previous seasons. Russell Westbrook is a favorite to win MVP.

Steven Adams and Enes Kanter exploded onto the scene in the 2016 Playoffs. Although I don’t expect OKC to win 55 games like they did in 2015-16, anything below 50 would be a surprise.

Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 wins

Over. The rivalry between Portland and Oklahoma City will be fun to watch this season. Damian Lillard vs. Westbrook is as great a point guard dual as most and the Trail Blazers upgraded their roster to become a legitimate threat to win the division.

Portland won 44 games last season, added Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli, and still have one of the most dynamic backcourts in the league. C.J. McCollum is only getting better. Look for the Blazers to challenge OKC for the top seed from the Northwest.

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Utah Jazz 47.5 wins

Under. Utah has plenty of upside. They are a young team with potential to contend down the road, but I feel like Vegas is jumping the gun on this one. George Hill is solid, but not great compared to the point guards he’ll be facing.

Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, and Rudy Gobert have been a good combination, but never quite enough to get the team over the hump. My prediction is the Jazz will make the playoffs as a seven or eighth seed and win somewhere around 42-45 games.

Denver Nuggets 34.5 wins

Under. Nuggets fans have reason to be excited about Emmanuel Mudiay, Nikola Jokic, Will Barton, and Gary Harris, but the rest of the roster is on the decline.

The time it will take Mudiay and Jokic to develop, combined with the lack of star players among its veterans, will keep the Nuggets far away from contention and they’ll be trading veterans like Kenneth Faried and possibly Danilo Gallinari at the deadline.

Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 wins

Under. Too soon. It’s just too soon. It’s easy to get caught up in the potential of these young, talented players, but the reality is the Timberwolves have growing pains to go through still.

They should be in the playoff race, but would need somewhere around 42 wins to get there and I feel that they will come up just short. The best days are in the next two or three years for this promising squad.

July 26, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; USA guard Kevin Durant (5) is congratulated by forward Draymond Green (14) behind guard Klay Thompson (11) against China in the first quarter during an exhibition basketball game at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors 66.5 wins

Under. Don’t get me wrong. This team is going to be great. My only question is how long it will take them to adjust to each other’s styles of play. They’ll be clicking by mid-season, but I’d be surprised if the Warriors come right out of the gate and win 15 of 20 to start the season.

Maybe the talent alone is enough to flirt with another 70-win season, but I just don’t see it in year one.

Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 wins

Over. This is the time for the Clippers to put up or shut up. If they can’t become a realistic threat to the Warriors in the first year that the super team is together, they have no chance of making that happen beyond 2017.

Chris Paul and Blake Griffin may both be on their way out of LA in the not-too-distant future. There will be an unprecedented sense of urgency on Doc Rivers‘ squad and I feel like the Clippers are going to mash on the gas pedal from the moment the season starts.

Sacramento Kings 32.5 wins

Under. They don’t have a reliable point guard to start the season. Dysfunction has been the first word that comes to mind with the Kings for as long as fans can remember.

DeMarcus Cousins is great. Rudy Gay is solid. They just don’t fit. If the Kings want to have a chance of a long-term, sustainable future, they’ll trade one, if not both of those players.

Phoenix Suns 26.5 wins

Over. The Suns have a talented young group, with budding stars, Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe, along with some talented young players, like Archie Goodwin and Brandon Knight.

Anything less than 30 wins would be a surprise in my opinion. I’m not saying the Suns would make the playoffs, but Vegas seems to be severely underrating the upstart squad.

Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 wins

Over. Everyone is quick to dismiss the signings of Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng, but those two will be valuable to have on a young, inexperienced team. The addition of Yi Jianlian might be one of the best under-the-radar moves of the summer.

Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell already have proven they can play at a high level. Much like the Suns, I don’t expect the Lakers to be in the playoff hunt at all, but they could be somewhere around 30 wins.

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