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Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 18: Let's figure this out

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Oct 12, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Serge Ibaka (7) and Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon (00) talk against the San Antonio Spurs during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The 2017 season is here and the Orlando Magic still have plenty of questions that need answering. We open up the mailbag to answer some of those questions.

Another Orlando Magic season is quickly approaching. The games count tomorrow. All the mystery and questions from throughout a tumultuous offseason come to a head on Oct. 26 when the season starts.

Preseason has revealed a little bit about what is to come with the Magic.

Frank Vogel has promised a tough, defensive mindset and a team playing at a fast pace. The Magic have showed plenty of flashes of doing this. They are still just flashes though. It is unclear how they will play in the intensity of a regular season game for 48 minutes.

It still feels like Orlando is doing a slow build up to the season. The final preseason game proved there is still a lot of work to do. The Magic may still be figuring some things into the regular season. It is going to take a little time.

But there is still tremendous optimism and hope for what this season can become. The Magic have the talent to accomplish some serious goals.

It will not be easy though. As there have been all summer, there remain a lot of questions. These questions will get slowly answered as the games start counting. The time for us to idly wonder how this whole thing will work is quickly running out.

Until that time, we will keep speculating and keep giving our best guesses for the 2017 season.

A little while ago, I asked you for your questions as we opened up the mailbag one more time before the season starts to answer your questions. Here we go…

This will be a constant theme and question throughout the season. I am sure it is a question I got in one of my mailbags over the summer.

With the Orlando Magic spending so much money on Bismack Biyombo, the trade chatter is going to be loud when it comes to Nikola Vucevic. For now, it appears the Magic are going to give Vucevic his shot — as they should.  But for how long is the question.

At some point, Bismack Biyombo will put pressure on Nikola Vucevic to keep his starting spot. Vucevic has to perform at a high level.

The early trade market is beginning to emerge. Vucevic is certainly among the players that teams may fish for when it really opens up. Players like Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, Kenneth Faried, Ricky Rubio and Brandon Knight might also become available.

It is at least remotely possible for the Magic to get one of these players for Vucevic straight up. More likely, Vucevic is going to get only a few reserve players or spot starters in a straight up deal. Throw in Elfrid Payton and it might get a starter or one of those players.

It does not feel likely.

The point is, Vucevic’s trade value is very difficult to judge. Especially now.

There are questions as to whether he can start for a winning team. If the Magic do end up trading him, it is likely because the answer to that question is no. And so, even with Vucevic’s kind salary, it is hard to project what Vucevic can net.

If the Magic do opt to trade Vucevic, I would keep expectations low. The Magic are not looking to rebuild, they want players who can help them immediately. Even the young players they could get likely are not enough to move the needle.

Frank Vogel has all but confirmed the opening night and regular starting lineup (at least for the beginning of the season) will be Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic.

The preseason brought some discussion of starting Jeff Green. That was never real. And even starting Bismack Biyombo. That was a little more real.

I expect this starting lineup to carry through for most of the season barring a trade or disappointment or injury.

That is one of the problems with the Magic’s roster at the moment. The team is married to this team in many ways. If they want to make changes, they will have to trade one of their big players — Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo are probably the best trade options for the Magic.

Vucevic gets the nod over Biyombo because that starting group needs offense. If Vucevic struggles on defense (no sign he will after a pretty solid preseason on the defensive end), then perhaps Biyombo overtakes him at some point out of necessity for the defense.

If Gordon struggles to grasp the finer points at the 3, then perhaps Jeff Green takes over. Even then, Gordon is a much better defender. And the Magic are not about to give up on Gordon quite yet. The option would have to be clearly better for the short and long term to replace Gordon.

Green is not that.

Time will tell whether the Magic look into moving any of those players. But assuming the team has turned trading off for the season, the starting lineup feels very set.

I think I might be in the minority — or too naive and optimistic — but I do not think this is a true Playoffs or bust year. I think the Magic know (or at least should recognize) they took a sizable risk with the offseason acquisitions. Their main goal this year is to continue making significant progress, be competitive and forge an identity.

The Magic’s biggest failure in the first four years of the rebuild was stating their desired identity — defensive, versatile, athletic — and failing to have it coalesce in any meaningful way.

I thought the Magic going from 25 to 35 wins was a major step forward. And certainly the organization and fans should feel some disappointment it was not more. The Magic showed they could clearly do more. Change was definitely needed.

Five years though is a long time without going to the Playoffs. Especially for this franchise. So that desire to be truly competitive is a real pressure on everyone.

Scott Skiles said toward the end of last season going from 25 to 35 wins is easy. Going from 35 to 45 wins is harder. And then 45 to 55 is even harder. The Magic definitely have a tough task ahead of them.

I have settled in at 40 wins as the mark for the Magic. And I do not think that would be a terrible season. Of course, the actual win total is not important. It is how that win total relates to the other teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Magic can finish with a sub-.500 record this year, so long as they are competing for a Playoff spot to the end of the season.

I think that is the measure. If the Magic make the Playoffs, all is well in the world. If the Magic miss the Playoffs in the last week, I think people are safe. If the Magic are out of it by the beginning of April . . .

Well then Rob Hennigan is surely gone, or under extreme pressure at least. I would imagine the players he drafted — like Payton especially — no longer have much guarantee of sticking around. And the Magic will be searching to do another rebuild or to settle on mediocrity.

This is a big season for the Magic organization. Or else they might be praying for Lottery luck again.

I have been on the Serge Ibaka train pretty hard since he joined the Orlando Magic. I think Ibaka could be in for a big season. Most of that is increased opportunity. Ibaka was a third option — if that — on offense. And he seemed disengaged some because the Oklahoma City Thunder ignored him on offense.

I suspect Ibaka will see his scoring average hover just less than 20 points per game with his rebounds increasing. His rim protection stats should remain relatively similar too.

Ibaka is the biggest potential star and the game-changing player on defense the Magic have been looking for since Dwight Howard departed.

As I have said before, so much has to go right for the Magic. Ibaka is just one piece to that puzzle. It would be nice for the Magic to see him take that step up, but he could be successful even producing at a notch above what he did last year in Oklahoma City.

The player the Magic probably need most to step up is Aaron Gordon though.

Gordon has spent the first two years of his career as a bundle of potential without much form. The Magic are switching his position and the third year is always an important point in the development of a rookie. It is essentially a contract year with those players becoming eligible for extensions the following year.

The Magic need to figure out what they have in Gordon before that point. So this is a big year for him to develop and turn into something. The Magic need to have a better idea of what Gordon can become before moving forward past this year.

And to make the Playoffs, Gordon has to become a reliable offensive player. He has shown he can fill some gaps particularly in transition. And his jumper is improving. He just has to keep defenses honest and hit somewhere near 15 points per game, showing that he can do more as he continues to grow.

From Everett Chew via e-mail:

On that note. . .

Gordon’s future is definitely a hot topic among Orlando Magic fans. As I noted in the previous question, I think his development is critical to the Magic’s success this year. He has to be able to contribute consistently and have his turn taking over games.

Certainly Gordon has to develop a more certain form this season.

So what is his ceiling? I have likened him more to Shawn Marion. He is somewhere between Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and that.

I do not think Gordon is ever going to be the one-on-one point generator. He is always going to be better in transition and as a slasher where he could use his athleticism. After two years, his development has been slow to say the least. Injuries have played a role in that.

It is still so incredibly difficult to say what Gordon is in his future. Which is why the Marion comparison seems so apt.

At his peak, Marion was a do-it-all offensive player and defensive player. He was the leading scorer on some mediocre Suns teams, but he was not really unleashed until he became a secondary piece. Someone who could defend at a high level on the perimeter, but also grab a ton of rebounds and bury a team when they left him open.

Gordon is seemingly the next evolution for a player like Marion.

Marion was a borderline All Star in his hey day. One of the best defenders in the league. This is the player the Magic need Gordon to become. If not more. And I think this is a pretty high ceiling for him to attain.

Mario Hezonja technically did not play any point guard last year. But the idea certainly took hold.

Mario Hezonja’s passing was a whole lot better than everyone expected and the idea of putting him on the ball more certainly seemed like an easy way to unlock his confidence again. Scott Skiles certainly was not going to do things that way though. Because, well…

Will Vogel play Hezonja at the point more? Not likely. He has D.J. Augustin and C.J. Watson to back up Elfrid Payton. And those are both solid point guard options.

The idea of putting Hezonja on the ball more is certainly an intriguing one. The way that would work best is in transition. The Magic are trying to get out on the break more so and that should give Hezonja more opportunities to run the show.

Hezonja though will be the master of his own playing time. He alone will determine just how long he plays. And just how long he stays on the ball.

One of the big areas Hezonja struggled in the preseason was with turnovers. It is going to be hard to rely on Hezonja as a passer or a playmaker if he is turning the ball over a lot. Hezonja had 2.3 turnovers per game during the preseason. That was the second most on the team.

It is just preseason. So there is not a ton of worry. But Hezonja did not exactly look confident. It is hard to know if he will be more than just a spot-up shooter for the Magic.

So I would not expect to see Hezonja have at on of on-ball responsibility. His role will be to spread the floor with his shooting. In transition though, the Magic will want to use Hezonja for everything he’s got.

With the preseason in the books, I guess we can hand out preseason accolades now and say who looked really good and who did not.

Jeff Green was the player I was most impressed with. He came into camp ready to play and looked like a guy ready to hit the floor running. It was no wonder some Magic fans were already clamoring for him to get into the starting lineup. He played that well.

But Green should not have that role. What Green did though was make everyone feel more comfortable that the Magic had their Sixth Man set. His veteran leadership will be extremely valuable without doubt, but the Magic need production off the bench too.

Green proved more than capable to do that against second units. Asking him to do anything more would probably be getting into more dangerous territory.

Serge Ibaka also impressed me a lot.

I was particularly high on his ability to take on a larger role within the offense. And he showed signs he is capable of being a bigger part of the Magic’s offense. And his defense certainly will play a factor for the Magic as they forge their identity.

Ibaka was solid throughout the preseason despite his early camp injury. He seems like he will be able to deliver what the Magic wnat.

As far as disappointments, Mario Hezonja is the first place to start.

His run with Croatia this summer and the loss of Scott Skiles on the bench should help free him up and give him more opportunity. Certainly a little more freedom to make mistakes.

But Hezonja struggled to do the things he was supposed to be good at. He averaged just 6.0 points per game and shot worse than 30 percent from the floor. This was not encouraging at all for Hezonja. He did not look like a confident and comfortable player.

And that went double on defense.

He had his moments, but the struggles overshadowed them.

I was also somewhat disappointed by Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic’s defense was much improved. His positioning and anticipation were, as promised, much better. But he still was someone opponents attacked with gusto.

Vucevic though was largely passive on offense. He shot 33.9 percent from the floor. He was not particularly looking for his own shot though. There is plenty of reason to believe he will put himself into form when the games start.

Still, his fit is a big question this season. Vucevic seems like he will fit, but he did not put forth an encouraging set of games this month.

From Evan Caulfield via e-mail:

I do not think anyone on the roster is exempt from trade talk at this point. The Orlando Magic really are not married to anybody. Nor should they be. Who on this roster can you truly build around?

Like with the Magic for the last four years, they are going to have to be opportunistic. If a chance for a deal comes around — like the Serge Ibaka deal this summer — the Magic will certainly explore it and take it.

Here is the problem though with the Magic and any trade asset they might have: their best trade assets are still largely based on their potential. Outside of the expiring contracts of Serge Ibaka and Jeff Green, the Magic’s most valuable players are unknowns and get sold on potential.

And everyone wants to see how a player like Aaron Gordon finally develops into something. That makes trading him hard at this point.

So if Gordon struggles this year, sure teams will be interested, but the net return will not be great. There is always a reason to get rid of a player.

For the Magic to make an upgrade, as opposed to a straight restart, they would trade a player that is playing well to get an upgrade in a veteran rather than trading a player who is struggling. That would only net more uncertain players.

Thanks everyone for the mailbag questions this month. We will be back once the season starts to open up the mailbag once again. Be sure to check out our mini mailbag each week on Locked On Magic!

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