National Basketball Association

Orlando Magic: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

The Orlando Magic enter a second straight season with a new head coach and a series of moves has left the roster improved on paper. But will it translate to Orlando’s first postseason appearance since the Dwight Howard era?

Aaron Gordon (00) could be set for a third-season breakout and the Orlando Magic thought highly enough of Evan Fournier (10) to re-sign him to a five-year, $85 million deal. But will all the new pieces fit together enough to get Orlando back to the playoffs for the first time in five years? Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Orlando Magic entered 2015-16 with massive amounts of optimism.

The young players assembled by general manager Rob Hennigan were ready, it seemed, to make the leap from potential to production.

New coach Scott Skiles, a fan favorite as a member of the original Magic squad, was on board to mold the kids into a playoff team, a trick he turned in his second seasons with both the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks.

But it all came apart in a hurry. After Orlando reached a season-high six games above .500 with a win over the Brooklyn Nets on Dec. 30, the turn of the calendar meant a major turn in the fortunes of the Magic.

The club staggered to a 16-34 mark in calendar year 2016 and Skiles stunned the club by resigning in mid-May.

Along the way, Hennigan dealt young power forward Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons for what turned out to be two-month rentals of Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova.

On draft night, the Magic swapped former No. 2 overall pick Victor Oladipo along with Ilyasova and the rights to 11th overall pick Domantas Sabonis to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Serge Ibaka, who is on an expiring contract.

That makes four coaches in three seasons for Orlando–and for youngsters Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon, it means a third straight season of adjusting to a new system.

The Magic did commit to Evan Fournier, signing the French wing to a five-year, $85 million deal as a restricted free agent. But they made a similar commitment to Harris last summer (four years, $64 million) and bailed on that deal seven months later.

Orlando added a defensive-minded center in Bismack Biyombo, signing the Toronto Raptors’ postseason breakout star to a four-year, $70 million contract.

Where he fits with offensive standout Nikola Vucevic, who plays the same position, is something Vogel will have to work out, as well as how to work Ibaka into the lineup without stunting the development of the uber-athletic Gordon.

Payton, meanwhile, now has veteran D.J. Augustin behind him for now and Orlando can only hope that Payton’s shooting ability can progress the way another point guard with the same last name–Hall of Famer Gary Payton–was able to grow.

So as the Orlando Magic embark on the 2016-17 season, there are a host of moving parts and many questions.

2015-16 Vitals

35-47, 5th in Southeast Division, 11th in Eastern Conference
102.1 PPG (18th)/103.7 OPPG (18th)
105.1 Offensive Rating (21st)/106.8 Defensive Rating (16th)

Team Leaders (minimum 42 games)
Scoring: Nikola Vucevic 18.2 PPG
Rebounding: Nikola Vucevic 8.9 RPG
Assists: Elfrid Payton 6.4 APG
Steals: Victor Oladipo 1.6 SPG
Blocks: Nikola Vucevic 1.1 BPG

Honors
None

Nikola Vucevic, acquired in the 2012 trade that sent Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers, once again led the Orlando Magic in scoring and rebounding. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Cliff Alexander, F
D.J. Augustin, G
Bismack Biyombo, C-F
Branden Dawson, F
Evan Fournier, G-F
Aaron Gordon, F
Jeff Green, F
Mario Hezonja, G-F
Serge Ibaka, F
Nick Johnson, G
Jodie Meeks, G
Kevin Murphy, G
Arinze Onuaku, F-C
Elfrid Payton, G
Damjan Rudez, F
Nikola Vucevic, C
C.J. Watson, G
C.J. Wilcox, G
Stephen Zimmerman, C

Offseason Additions

Offseason Departures

Quick Thoughts

The quiet acquisition of backup point guard D.J. Augustin may wind up paying big dividends for the Orlando Magic.

Augustin is coming in to caddy for third-year man Elfrid Payton, signing a four-year deal in July. Given that Augustin has played for seven teams in the last four seasons, some stability might be good for him.

But he’s a professional point guard, putting up 11.6 points and 4.7 assists in 23.5 minutes a game for the Denver Nuggets after being acquired in a trade deadline deal in February, shooting .445/.411/.819 in 28 appearances.

The biggest question will be the presumptive move of young Aaron Gordon to the small forward spot. New coach Frank Vogel said that was the expectation going in, accor5ding to RealGM.com.

“With Serge (Ibaka) probably starting at the 4, he’ll probably start at the 3. But with the way the league plays in today’s NBA, you have to have the ability to play a guy like Aaron at the 4. A guy as versatile as Aaron is, what position he plays is predicated on the players around him. Serge Ibaka’s not here, he’s a 4 for us. Serge Ibaka is here, he’s going to play the 3 and we’re going to be really long, and that’s exciting.”

Then there is the center position, where Nikola Vucevic has been entrenched since being acquired in the Dwight Howard trade in 2012.

Bismack Biyombo was signed to a big free-agent deal and even in today’s NBA, $17 million is a hefty price tag for a backup. Vucevic, meanwhile, is entering the second year of a four-year, $48 million extension he signed in 2014 and is on the books for $11.75 million in 2016-17.

So the Magic enter the season with a lot of moving parts, to be sure.

Serge Ibaka brings declining numbers and an expiring contract to the Orlando Magic. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. The French Connection

The Orlando Magic pulled off a stunning trade on draft night, sending former No. 2 overall pick Victor Oladipo, power forward Ersan Ilyasova and the rights 11th overall pick Domantas Sabonis to the Oklahoma City Thunder to get power forward Serge Ibaka.

Ibaka ostensibly brings another rim protector to Orlando. But it’s been steadily diminishing returns for Ibaka since he led the league in blocks in 2011-12 and 2012-13.

He put up 3.7 swats a night for the Thunder club that reached the NBA Finals in 2011-12. That number dropped to 3.0 (still good for the league lead) the following season. In the last three seasons, Ibaka’s blocks per game average has dipped to 2.7, 2.4 and last year’s 1.9 mark.

More from Hoops Habit

It’s not attributable to a decline in playing time, either. His per-36 minutes block numbers since 2011-12: 4.8, 3.5, 3.0, 2.6 and 2.1. His block percentage mirrors that: 9.8, 7.4, 6.7, 5.8 and 4.5.

Coupled with that has been an ever-increasing defensive rating, from a sterling 98 points per 100 possessions in 2011-12 going up to 101, 102, 104 and last year’s 105, per Basketball-Reference.com.

And then there’s the other shoe, waiting to drop: Ibaka is in the final year of a four-year extension he signed with Oklahoma City in 2012 and can become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Should he walk away from the Magic, general manager Rob Hennigan may have some explaining to do, because at the end of the day, he will have turned Oladipo and promising forward Tobias Harris into two-month rentals of Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings and a single season of Ibaka.

Those are the sorts of deals that turn GMs into former GMs.

Ibaka wrote in a blog for The Cauldron at SI.com that he feels like a rookie again with the trade to the Magic.

“I’m thrilled to be in Orlando. I know that might sound crazy to some people, that I’m excited to go from a contender like the Thunder to a rebuilding team, one that hasn’t made the playoffs in four years, but playing now for Frank Vogel, a coach who prides himself on defense, is very exciting for me. We have a core of like-minded, young, athletic players, which is going to be very fun. We are an old-school, smashmouth team, and I can’t wait to don a Magic uniform on opening night.”

Ibaka began adding a long-range shot to his repertoire in 2012-13, when he was 20-for-57 (35.1 percent) from three-point range, and increased that to 23-for-60 (38.3 percent) the following season.

He was outstanding in 2014-15, upping his attempts to 3.2 per game and converting 37.6 percent, but last season he slipped to 32.6 percent on 2.4 attempts a night, sliding from 14.3 points per game to 12.6 in the process.

Ibaka turns 27 on Sept. 18 and brings loads of playoff experience to a young group that has none of that. If he can revive his game, he can make the Magic a formidable force in the East, particularly if he can provide the rim protection center Nikola Vucevic cannot.

But it’s a high-stakes gamble for Hennigan, who could be left holding the bag if Ibaka bolts 10 months from now.

Bismack Biyombo parlayed a big playoff performance into a $70 million deal. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. The Odd Couple

In Nikola Vucevic, the Orlando Magic have had one of the top offensive centers in the NBA the last four seasons.

Vucevic has averaged 16.2 points and 10.7 rebounds a game since coming to the Magic in 2012, shooting 51.6 percent from the floor and a very serviceable 74.2 percent at the foul line.

But there have been two significant issues with Vucevic as it relates to the growth of the Magic.

magic

Nothin' But Nets 3wNBA: Preseason Ranking for the Eastern Conference

More headlines around FanSided:

3w - Evan Fournier is the Orlando Magic's most underappreciated player 3w - NBA: Power Ranking Every Team's Bench Unit Entering 2016-17 3w - Next on the schedule for Orlando Magic with Olympics ending 3w - Pressure Index: Five Orlando Magic players under the most pressure 3w - Anfernee Hardaway to Magic DriveTime: 'I am Orlando'More News at Orlando Magic Daily

One is simply that Vucevic has not been able to stay consistently healthy. He missed 25 games in 2013-14 due to a sprained ankle, a concussion and a sore Achilles and last year, he appeared in only 65 as he dealt with a sprained knee and a strained groin.

The other is that he’s not anything close to being considered a defensive force. Last season’s 1.1 blocks per game was a career-high.

As an isolation defender, Vucevic is somewhat akin to being stranded on a desert island. According to NBA.com’s play type stats, he ranks in just the 35th percentile among NBA players as an isolation defender, allowing 0.91 points per possession.

Enter Bismack Biyombo.

With the Toronto Raptors last season, Orlando’s new free agent big man was in the 69th percentile in isolation situations, allowing 0.75 points per possession.

In fairness to Vuc, however, only 7.3 percent of his isolation efforts wound up with free throws for the opposition. That number swells to 13.2 percent for Biyombo.

Biyombo signed a one-year prove it deal with the Raptors last season and wound up starting 22 games at center while Jonas Valanciunas was out. He put up 5.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 22.0 minutes a game.

And then the playoffs–and another Valanciunas injury–happened.

Biyombo started Toronto’s final 10 playoff games–their last four in a second-round victory over the Miami Heat and all six against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conferencde Finals, averaging 8.2 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.1 blocks in 33.1 minutes a game over that span.

Included in there was a 26-rebound, four-block masterpiece in Game 3 against Cleveland with the Raptors facing a 2-0 deficit.

There are two ways this could be perfect for Orlando, neither one realistic of course, but still.

Short of that, the two will co-exist in the middle and Vogel’s history indicates he’s going to lean more and more toward Biyombo.

He had a premier rim protector with the Indiana Pacers in Roy Hibbert (at least until the acquistion of Andrew Bynum in 2014 robbed him of his mojo, lunch money, confidence and game) and when Hibbert was dealt to the Los Angeles Lakers, Ian Mahinmi–a player very similar to Biyombo–was the go-to guy in the middle.

Expect to see more Biyombo and less Vucevic, who could be very tradeable with an affordable deal (in the new NBA world, particularly) and two years left after 2016-17.

Frank Vogel becomes the Orlando Magic’s fourth head coach in three seasons. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. A New Boss … Again

The Orlando Magic certainly didn’t think they would have to set up the press room for yet another head coach introduction in 2016.

But there they were in May, introducing former Indiana Pacers coach Frank Vogel as the new man in the lead chair on the bench after the resignation of Scott Skiles, who applied the one-and-done rule to coaching.

Orlando could have done much, much worse than Vogel, whose Pacers teams were known for their gritty defense.

Vogel only missed the postseason once in parts of six seasons in Indiana, in 2014-15 when franchise player Paul George was recovering from a gruesome leg injury sustained in training with USA Basketball.

He put up a record of 250-181 with the Pacers and was 31-30 in the playoffs with two straight trips to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2013 and 2014.

Last year, Indiana finished seventh in the East with a 45-37 mark and pushed the Toronto Raptors to the limit in the first round before falling in seven games.

Vogel is intrigued by his team’s makeup, telling the Orlando Sentinel something has emerged as he studies film and plans for the start of training camp.

“I’ve never had a team that’s had this type of versatility.”

His style won’t change moving from the Heartland to Florida, either. Vogel told NBA.com his formula will be a familiar one.

“We’re going to be a great defensive team and a team that likes to run the floor. And we’re going to be a team that plays an exciting brand of offensive basketball. But at the end we’re also going to be a team that’s going to be really tough to score on.”

Get the FanSided App

But as Gordon and point guard Elfrid Payton enter their third seasons, they will be learning a new system for the third straight year.

Jacque Vaughn and James Borrego oversaw the 2013-14 season, followed by Skiles last year. Now there is a new boss and a new voice in Vogel.

That can be tough on young players. On the other hand, if they ever questioned whether it’s a business at this level, the revolving door on the coach’s office should confirm it is.

Vogel is confident, though, that the Magic have the right stuff to move out of the lottery.

“As they get in here, we’ll spend enough time together throughout the year. But we’ll talk about building chemistry and togetherness every day throughout training camp and the entire year. To me, it’s a vital ingredient to building a winner and we’ll achieve that here.”

His track record indicates he knows what he’s talking about.

Is this the year Elfrid Payton adds a consistent jumper to his game? Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case Scenario

The Orlando Magic come together under coach Frank Vogel to grab their first playoff berth since 2012, with point guard Elfrid Payton making the leap from ballhandling defender to being an able–and willing–shooter.

Aaron Gordon showcases his athleticism at the 3, with his length making him a defensive nightmare and his athleticism creating opportunities for him to put on some devastating aerial shows.

Serge Ibaka stays healthy and finds his old form, both at the rim as a defender and with his mid-range and three-point shooting, and Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo form a dynamic offense/defense combination in the middle.

Evan Fournier takes the next step and emerges as the go-to scorer on the wing and Orlando stays in the hunt for a top-four seed before sliding into the playoffs at No. 6 in the East.

Worst Case Scenario

The roster GM Rob Hennigan asssembled doesn’t coalesce … at all. Vucevic, unhappy about a diminishing role, struggles to find a rhythm, while Biyombo provides defense — and no offense — in the middle.

Payton’s shooting woes haven’t been cured by another offseason of jumpers galore and the Magic offense struggles to find spacing with point guards able to sag at will against them.

Fournier does what young guys getting their first big contract can do sometimes. Pressing and trying to do too much to prove he’s worth $85 million, Fournier becomes another problem at the offensive end for Orlando. Gordon struggles to defend smaller players on the wing.

All of that adds up to the Magic remaining not just lottery-bound, but taking a significant step back from their 35-win total of 2015-16.

D.J. Augustin (12) could prove to be one of the underrated signings of 2016. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

The Orlando Magic will be better in 2016-17 than they were in 2015-16 … just not, you know, a lot.

The Magic, on paper, appear to have depth and athleticism galore. What they don’t have, however, are enough shooters to really be competitive in the pace-and-space era.