National Basketball Association

NBA Finals preview: Can Curry, Warriors stop LeBron from bringing crown to Cleveland?

Published Jun. 3, 2015 12:00 p.m. ET

Sam Gardner

After the NBA's conference finals turned out to be almost comically one-sided, the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers will meet in an NBA Finals that has felt like an inevitability for a while.

The Warriors, owners of the league's No. 2 offensive rating and No. 1 defensive rating, have been far and away the best team in the NBA for almost the entire season, and though the Cavs slogged through an adjustment period that's typical of create-a-contender super teams, they always appeared to be in a class of their own in the East.

So now, with the formalities -- and a weeklong break -- out of the way, we can finally see which long-suffering franchise is next to be fitted for rings. It's been 40 years for the Dubs and a lifetime for the Cavs, and unlike the last round, this championship bout is expected to be remembered as a classic, rather than for how quickly it ended in a knockout.

Matchup

West No. 1 seed Golden State Warriors (67-15, 12-3 postseason) vs. East No. 2 seed Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29, 12-2 postseason)

Schedule (all games on ABC)

Game 1: Thursday, June 4 at Golden State, 9 p.m. ET

Game 2: Sunday, June 7 at Golden State, 8 p.m. ET

Game 3: Tuesday, June 9 at Cleveland, 9 p.m. ET

Game 4: Thursday, June 11 at Cleveland, 9 p.m. ET

Game 5: Sunday, June 14 at Golden State, 8 p.m. ET*

Game 6: Tuesday, June 16 at Cleveland, 9 p.m. ET*

Game 7: Friday, June 19 at Golden State, 9 p.m. ET*

*If necessary

Season series

Warriors won 112-94 on Jan. 9 in Oakland; Cavs won 110-99 Feb. 26 in Cleveland

Coaches

There's been a sea change in Oakland this season as the Warriors have made the rapid rise from good to great over the past several months, and there's certainly something to the idea that Steve Kerr is the catalyst for much of it. In his debut season, Kerr finished second in the league's Coach of the Year voting, and his X's and O's smarts are well-documented. But his biggest impact with Golden State may be the way he has transformed the team's culture behind closed doors, where Kerr and his staff have embraced the idea that basketball should be fun -- something that's often overlooked among coaches in today's NBA.

Meanwhile, Cavaliers coach David Blatt actually has Kerr to thank for the fact that he's the head coach in Cleveland. A longtime coach overseas, Blatt had originally agreed to be an assistant with Golden State, and it was Kerr who gave Blatt permission to interview with Cleveland after the Cavs came calling. Throughout the season, Blatt faced his share of growing pains in his first NBA go-around, and to a degree that should be expected, especially on a team with such high expectations for success. But ultimately, Blatt has handled every issue that has come his way, and he has Cleveland where everyone expected it would be when the season started, which is about all you can ask of him.

So now the question is: Which of these first-time NBA coaches is better prepared to lead his team onto the sport's biggest stage? Blatt has coached under pressure and won multiple championships abroad, including last year's Euroleague title with Maccabi Tel Aviv, but the prevailing thought with these Cavs is that it's ultimately LeBron James' team, and James, as something of a player-coach at times, would receive far more flack for Cleveland's shortcomings than Blatt. On the other hand, Kerr will be able to draw on the experienced accumulated during five NBA titles as a player, and on a team without so much of a second of NBA Finals experience among the players, a coach who knows firsthand what it takes to win should prove valuable.

X-Factors

In my Eastern Conference Finals preview, I wrote that James would be the Cavaliers' "X-factor" against the Atlanta Hawks, and that statement still holds true, just as it will for every team James plays on for the rest of his life. After a rash of injuries, Cleveland is not all that different from the Cavs team that lost to the Spurs in the 2007 Finals or the Magic in the 2009 conference finals in that virtually all of its hopes rest on LeBron's ability to be LeBron. But if there's a secondary player on whom the Cavs' chances rest, it'll be J.R. Smith, Cleveland's enigmatic swingman and potential Warriors-killer.

After bumbling through the Cavs' first-round sweep of the Celtics -- and ultimately getting suspended for the first two games of the conference semifinals against Chicago after smashing his fist into Jae Crowder's face -- Smith returned as a different player against the Bulls and discovered a 3-point touch that will be crucial in the series against Golden State. Smith's talents were especially evident in Game 1 against Atlanta, when the Knicks castoff made eight of his 12 attempts from 3-point range, and the fact is, no one believes more in Smith than Smith, who is as capable of taking over a game as anyone on the floor.

For Golden State, you're obviously going to keep an eye on league MVP Steph Curry and maybe put a hand in his face when you can, especially if he's in the left corner, where he's made 12 of 13 3s this postseason. But Cleveland would also be wise not to overlook Draymond Green, who will not only be tasked at times with defending one-time Twitter target LeBron James but who will also need to be a major presence on the glass against a Cavs team that has been pulling down offensive rebounds at a better rate than any other team in the playoffs.

Ideally, Green will do both of those things well, and if he does, the Warriors' path to the franchise's first championship since the Rick Barry days becomes a lot easier. (It would also not hurt him to hit a 3 or two, something he has struggled with this postseason and was unable to do in 10 attempts against Cleveland during the regular season.) If he falters, however, the Cavs have plenty of weapons in James, Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov who will be more than happy to take advantage.

Breakdown:

Though most will agree that a week-long layoff between the end of the conference finals and the start of the NBA Finals is far too long, one would imagine that both the Warriors and Cavs are thrilled with the break. Golden State and Cleveland are dealing with injuries to stars Klay Thompson and Kyrie Irving, respectively, and every day that each of those cogs has to get closer to 100 percent will be crucial. And Cleveland, especially, will need Irving to look like his usual self, or else Curry will make the series appear a lot more one-sided than it really is.

Fortunately, the Cavs will be able to combat Curry's excellence with James, who was outstanding in the conference finals, averaging nearly a triple-double, but who has still left some feeling as though there's room for improvement. Certainly, LeBron has not been the model of efficiency, despite his eye-popping numbers, and the fact that he has the potential to be better has got to be terrifying to the entire Bay Area. LeBron didn't play in the Warriors' win over the Cavs in January, and when he did play in the Cavs' win in February, he scored 42 points, including 38 in the first three quarters. If he can even come close to duplicating that in his fifth straight Finals appearance, James will leave voters wishing they’d made him the MVP.

Still, the fact is, the Warriors are simply too good for LeBron to beat all by himself, and even if Irving plays to his pre-injury potential and the rest of the supporting cast does its job, one instance of LeBron being left on an island by his teammates could swing the entire series. It's hard to see either team losing a potential clinching game at home, so the Cavs better hope they split Games 1 and 2 at Oracle, or else James will have to wait at least another year to deliver that title to Cleveland.

Prediction: Warriors in seven games

You can follow Sam Gardner on Twitter or email him at samgardnerfox@gmail.com.