National Basketball Association

NBA: 5 Dark Horse MVP Candidates Early In 2016-17

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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We all know the big-name MVP candidates for the 2016-17 NBA season, but in a wide open race, can these five dark horses challenge them for the award?

Apr 3, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) drives for the basket as Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21) defends during the fourth quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Chicago won 102-98. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The 2016-17 NBA season is well underway, and unlike seasons past, it feels like the MVP race is still wide open nearly two months in.

Though the same heavy-hitters are as prevalent as ever, voter fatigue, superstar collaborations and a plethora of worthy candidates have led to the more prominent names like Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Kevin Durant taking something of a backseat.

King James still has the individual numbers and team success to win the award as a kind of default option, but he hasn’t quite separated himself from such a wide open field. The Golden State Warriors’ star duo is making waves, but their presence on the same roster will detract from each other’s vote totals unless one establishes himself as the unquestionable alpha dog.

The sexiest options at the moment are James Harden and Russell Westbrook, who are singlehandedly dominating the conversation as they put up eye-popping stat lines for teams that have been more successful than expected, but still need to launch their team’s record into a higher stratosphere to emerge as the MVP frontrunner.

Kawhi Leonard is another quality option in San Antonio, though his individual numbers still might not be grand enough to storm his way into the conversation. Anthony Davis is the inverse of Kawhi: tremendous individual numbers, but nowhere near enough team success to validate himself as a legitimate MVP option.

The big names have already been covered ad nauseam, but with so much up in the air, is there any chance for a sleeper candidate to break through and challenge LeBron, Harden, Westbrook, KD or the other big-name options?

Here are five super dark horse MVP candidates, with a look at why they should be in the conversation and what will hold them back from winning the award.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Paul, Isaiah Thomas, Kemba Walker

Dec 6, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Jimmy Butler (21) dunks the ball on a pass from guard Dwyane Wade (not pictured) against the Detroit Pistons in the first half at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

5. Jimmy Butler

Why He’s Close To The MVP Conversation:

When you’re the best player on a major market team like the Chicago Bulls, your exploits are going to be amplified — especially in the first season after the departure of a former franchise player like Derrick Rose, with Da Bulls off to a surprising 13-10 start.

That’s not to say he’s undeserving of being included in the conversation though. Averaging 25.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.7 steals per game, Butler is the catalyst behind the league’s 12th ranked offense and ninth ranked defense, and with Dwyane Wade joining the mix, they have the power of narrative on their side.

If the Bulls can somehow climb into the top three in the Eastern Conference standings and Butler strings together more 30- or 40-point performances, his two-way play should garner up some legitimate MVP chatter.

Why He Won’t Win It:

On the more realistic side, as surprising as the Bulls have been early on, they’re still only on pace for a 46-win season. Since 1985, only one player — Michael Jordan in 1988 — has won the MVP Award playing for a team that didn’t secure a top-two seed, and in that year, his team finished third.

The Bulls might not find enough team success to hoist Butler into the conversation, and as good as his 26-7-4 stat line is, it won’t be enough to separate him from the rest of the pack.

Stars playing for non-top-two seeds have to put up MASSIVE numbers to garner MVP talk, like Russell Westbrook averaging a triple-double or James Harden putting up a 28-12-8 stat line. Butler is a great two-way player for a surprisingly good team, but it’d take a lot to go right for him to legitimately challenge for the award.

Nov 16, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) celebrates after a three point basket in the second half of the game against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. Grizzlies won 111-107. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

4. Marc Gasol

Why He’s Close To The MVP Conversation:

The Memphis Grizzlies are somehow on a six-game win streak, including a 21-point win over the mighty Golden State Warriors, despite Mike Conley being out for their last seven contests. Everyone has had to step up, but Marc Gasol, who just won Western Conference Player of the Week honors, has clearly been the leader.

Though his numbers only sit at 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, Big Spain is averaging 25.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists during the team’s current win streak. The longer Conley is out and the Grizz continue to win against improbable odds, the less Gasol’s individual numbers matter.

Like Butler, Gasol and the Grizzlies have to insert themselves in that top-two or two-three range for him to even have a chance, and his numbers have to continue to climb into the 20-10-5 range too, but there’s no question he’s been one of the most valuable players for his respective team in the NBA this year.

Why He Won’t Win It:

Unfortunately for Gasol, his impact doesn’t quite pop off the stat sheet. Even with his recent uptick in production, he’s still only averaging a 20-6-4 stat line, and expecting A) Conley to miss substantial time and B) The Grizzlies to keep winning if that happens both feel unreasonable.

Memphis currently sits at fifth in the Western standings, which means Gasol’s MVP case depends on him managing the impossible: helping his team climb a few more spots while still benefitting from the narrative of Conley’s absence for an extended period of time.

Big Spain would definitely be in the running by the strictest interpretation of what it means to be the Most Valuable Player, but unless we’re still vastly underestimating the resolve of the Grizzlies, his team probably won’t win enough to put him in the conversation.

Nov 27, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the second half at Amway Center. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Orlando Magic 104-96. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Why He’s Close To The MVP Conversation:

This designation seemed like a much better idea last week, before the Milwaukee Bucks decided to lose four of their last five games to fall out of the playoff field in the East. But if they can go back to looking like the team that won five of six games before their current 1-4 skid, there’s no question Giannis Antetokounmpo will be behind it.

For MVP purposes, the Greek Freak already has the power of narrative on his side. The Bucks rising toward the top of the East would be a tremendous story, especially since they’ve been mediocre or bad for so long, not to mention Khris Middleton being out for the entire season.

Statistically, Giannis leads his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals AND blocks per game, and no one in NBA history has averaged the 22-9-6-2-2 stat line he’s posting right now for an entire season. If the Bucks can somehow climb the standings, Antetokounmpo’s immense growth on both ends of the floor can’t be overlooked.

Why He Won’t Win It:

Unfortunately, Milwaukee’s 11-12 record has the Bucks sitting at 10th in the East, which isn’t even good enough for a playoff spot, let alone MVP consideration. The individual numbers are terrific, but the Greek Freak now has to carry his team back into the win column.

At age 22, that’s a tall task for a point forward playing without the team’s best perimeter threat and leading scorer from last season. The Bucks are staying afloat thanks to Giannis’ jaw-dropping two-way efforts, but he can’t be the only one rowing for this boat to start going somewhere.

It’s starting to look like an MVP Award could be in Antetokounmpo’s future, but expecting it to come this year would take some substantial improvement in the team’s win-loss record.

Dec 2, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) shoots and scores a basket against the Los Angeles Lakers at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Lakers 113-80. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

2. DeMar DeRozan

Why He’s Close To The MVP Conversation:

DeMar DeRozan probably has the best mix of team success and individual numbers of anyone on this list. Though he’s no longer leading the league in scoring like he was during his blistering start to the season, he’s still posting a career-best 27.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game.

He doesn’t have a serviceable three-point shot, but that might make his 47.4 percent shooting from the field even more impressive; DeRozan is a 1990s throwback out here operating and thriving in the midrange.

The Toronto Raptors are a safe bet to secure a top-two seed in the East, and could possibly even challenge the Cavs for the No. 1 spot in the conference if Cleveland slacks off. If he can assert himself as this team’s alpha dog, he’s got the numbers to insert himself into the MVP mix.

Why He Won’t Win It:

Unfortunately for DeRozan’s MVP case, this team has always been seen as Kyle Lowry‘s team, and even with DeMar beginning to establish himself as their best player, the Raptors are defined by their backcourt bromance.

That will matter to MVP voters, as will DeRozan’s less than satisfactory performance on the defensive end. Toronto may finish with a top-two record in the East again, but for DeRozan to conjure up some MVP buzz, the Raptors will have to feel like a legitimate threat to Cleveland’s Eastern Conference reign this season.

Toronto is a good team, but they’ve already lost their season series to the Cavaliers and nothing we’ve seen suggests they’ll be anything but second-best in the East come playoff time. DeRozan is having a stellar year, but the odds are stacked against him here.

November 19, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) controls the ball against the Chicago Bulls during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

1. Blake Griffin

Why He’s Close To The MVP Conversation:

You could put Blake Griffin or Chris Paul here as the Los Angeles Clippers‘ representative, but since Griffin is younger than the 31-year-old Paul, it feels reasonable to expect a higher gear out of him. Either way, the Clippers are one upswing away from looking more like the league-leading juggernaut they were at the start of the season, which would put either one into the MVP mix.

Griffin is averaging 21.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.1 steals per game at the moment, shooting 47 percent from the field and leading the Clippers in plus/minus at +10.9. CP3 has been as timeless as ever, but Blake is still the key for this team to finally break through and reach the conference finals.

Since their blistering 14-2 start that featured the league’s stingiest defense, the Clippers have backslid with a 4-5 skid. If they can turn things back around and start looking like the legitimate title contender they were early on, and if Griffin can bump up his scoring numbers as the alpha dog on a top-seeded team in the West, he’ll shoot out of nowhere into this MVP race.

Why He Won’t Win It:

How can we summarize his team’s recent skid other than “same ol’ Clippers”? Even though they are a legitimate contender and have been for years now, every time we get ready to play the part of Chicago Cubs fans and say “This is their year!” they go and trip all over themselves against elite competition.

Even if the Clippers turn around their current skid and secure a top-two seed in the West, how will voters be able to choose between Griffin and CP3 for their MVP? It’d be neck-and-neck unless Griffin drastically increased his numbers, and even then the overall balance of this Clippers roster might hold him back.

Griffin is the franchise player in Lob City, but he also has to raise his numbers and stay healthy to enter the MVP conversation. With the Flyin’ Lion currently dealing with knee soreness, there are probably more realistic options available.