National Basketball Association

Milwaukee Bucks: Best and Worst Case Scenarios For Next Season

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 2:06 a.m. ET

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With the 2016-2017 NBA season approaching, what results could we see from the biggest issues facing the Milwaukee Bucks?

Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Just over a month remains until the Milwaukee Bucks tip off their regular season on October 26 against the Charlotte Hornets, and with the Bucks’ roster likely set going forward, it’s time to begin looking at the upcoming campaign.

Here at Behind the Buck Pass, we’ll have plenty of player-specific and team-wide previews in the coming weeks, so today we’ll be focusing on the different talking points that last season and this summer have created.

From three-point shooting concerns, to the continuation of the Point Giannis phenomenon, to an overload of big men, there are plenty of different storylines that could dictate how the Bucks’ season turns out.

It’s impossible at this time to say exactly what will happen in each case, but fans can begin to prepare themselves for any reality that may occur. In attempting to cover the entire spectrum of possibilities, we’ll look at both a best and worst-case scenario for the given situation, as well as the effect each would have.

It’s important to note that these are realistic scenarios, so although it may be tempting, we’ll stay away from projecting All-Star seasons for Tyler Ennis and Thon Maker.

Many of these storylines also interweave, meaning that one player’s performance may have far-reaching effects that influence the entire team.

Some of the following issues may even be resolved fairly simply, as we have virtually no idea at this point what rotations or even lineups coach Jason Kidd will utilize.

Others still may continue to inspire disagreement year-round, but either way it’s important that fans understand the issues possibilities facing their team in the coming year.

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Frontcourt Logjam

Just one year ago, the Bucks big man rotation seemed set for the future following the respective signing and extension of Greg Monroe and John Henson during the offseason. Monroe was meant to provide a much-needed offensive boost while Henson’s defensive skill-set figured to play a significant situational role.

However, just one year later, the Bucks’ center position is a hub of chaos, with Monroe, Henson, and former benchwarmer Miles Plumlee combining to earn $42 million this season.

Obviously this isn’t an ideal situation to find oneself in, but the best way to reverse the effects of the logjam created is to find the best configuration for the players at this position.

It may go without saying, but truly, the best way to “solve” the Bucks’ center position would most likely be a trade of Monroe, opening up space for both Plumlee and Henson to soak up minutes and possibly acquiring future assets. Sure, this move would leave the Bucks without a traditional post scorer, but the direction of the modern NBA may mean that this isn’t such a big deal.

However, the Bucks have presumably been shopping Monroe since before last year’s trade deadline, and the fact that a deal has still not yet been made tells us that the market for traditional post-scoring centers may be barren.

If we accept that Monroe must remain with the team for at least the next season, the best scenario for the Bucks is likely, as we’ve broken down, to start Plumlee and bring in Monroe off the bench as a scoring spark.

Even in this case, John Henson’s opportunities are being marginalized, which further underscores the problematic nature of the Bucks’ center position.

Plumlee was brought in to run the pick and roll, specifically with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and maximizing their minutes together is the most obvious way to improve the Bucks’ offense. Also, while not a great defender, Plumlee’s elements of verticality and energy do more on the point-preventing end than the ground-bound defense of Monroe.

Should Monroe start, the Bucks are entering dangerous territory; neither Plumlee nor Henson would be receiving playing time in accordance with their salary, and this would likely necessitate less opportunity for Point Giannis to work his magic (more on that later). All three of the Bucks’ centers are skilled in their own right, and the responsibility of maximizing production is one that will rest on the shoulders of the coaching staff.

Best Case: Plumlee starts, Monroe scores off the bench, Henson used situationally

Worst Case: Monroe starts, offense is cluttered, defense struggles, neither Henson nor Plumlee merit their contracts

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Point Giannis

For all the disappointment and strife the 2015-2016 season brought to Bucks fans, the latter half of the season provided optimism in the form of the Point Giannis phenomenon.

Beginning shortly after the All-Star break, Jason Kidd placed the reins of the offense in the hands of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the rest may just be history.

League pundits raved about the prospect of an athletic 7-footer with guard-like passing skills, and although the Bucks’ record was only 10-12 over the final 22 games of the season, the statistical effect the switch had on Giannis cannot be overstated.

All-Star Break	OffRtg	DefRtg	PPG	RPG	APG	USG	+/-
Pre	106	108	15.9	7.1	2.8	21.4	-4.0
Post	112	105	18.8	8.6	7.2	24.2	-1.1

via nbawowy

These trends, coupled with the lack of options at the position, led Jason Kidd to declare this summer that Antetokounmpo would be running the offense for the foreseeable future.

Playing Giannis at point guard does more than simply put the ball in the hands of the Bucks most explosive and dynamic playmaker, which in itself may be reason enough to make the switch. This alignment also mitigates one of the Bucks biggest issues, which I’ll get to later – three-point shooting.

It’s clear that the front office is building around Giannis, and the expectation that comes with that trust likely assumes at least another year of growth in terms of play. At still only 21 years old, it’s certainly not unrealistic for Giannis to further his skills as a ball-handler and develop an outside jump shot.

There is certainly a defined path to stardom for Giannis, what with his focused weaknesses and potential max contract extension, but what may not be as pleasant to think about is the other side of the issue.

It could be that the success of the Point Giannis phenomenon was nothing more than a fluke that defenses will soon have an answer for. Perhaps neither Giannis nor Jabari Parker develops a jump shot and offensive spacing becomes irreversibly clogged. Maybe the embattled Greg Monroe will refuse to mesh play-styles with the offense’s new direction.

As is to be expected with an unprecedented tactical move such as this, the possibilities are endless, but Bucks fans would do well to have faith in their cornerstone.

Best Case: continues to grow, improves teammates, merits max contract

Worst Case: Point Giannis was a fluke, growth stagnates, doesn’t play nice with Monroe and others

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Jabari Parker

In returning from ACL surgery, Jabari Parker began turning heads leaguewide last year with a much-improved second half of the season, showing glimpses of the elite scoring machine he was projected to be pre-draft. Parker averaged 18.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game after last season’s All-Star Break, a large uptick from first-half averages of 11.3 points, 4.7 boards, and 1.4 dimes.

As we’ve broken down before, many fans and pundits alike expect Jabari’s trajectory to continue upwards, but it’s important to note that Parker is far from a star as it now stands. As I mentioned previously, Jabari hasn’t yet become weaponized in any particular direction of offensive repertoire.

Despite what his numbers may seem to convey, Parker doesn’t yet have an aspect of his game that would be considered elite or polished besides his athleticism … Parker is almost limitlessly malleable at this point.

Jabari has up until this point made his impact offensively via off-ball cuts and the occasional dribble-drive. Developing a reliable jump shot, the likes of which he flashed towards the end of last year, should be near the top of his to-do list in terms of growth.

Much has also been made of Jabari’s lack of defensive acumen; his awareness on an NBA level is simply not all there and his pairing last year with Greg Monroe was a large reason why the Bucks’ defensive rating of 108.7 ranked 23rd in the league.

Jabari is certainly skilled enough to score and excel on his own in due time, but his fit with the Bucks is thrown into an entirely different plane when one considers his play with Giannis.

It’s no coincidence that Jabari’s uptick in performance coincides with the genesis of the Point Giannis revolution, and the numbers bear out exactly what effect the Greek Freak has had on Parker’s play.

Jabari Parker – since 2/2216
With Giannis	Without Giannis
TS%	55.4	TS%	49.7
OffRTG	110	OffRTG	101
3PA	23	3PA	4

Obviously, it is vitally important that Jabari share the court with Giannis as much as possible, regardless of the potential problems posed by their consolidated shooting woes.

Jabari has all the tools and facilitators necessary to continue his growth upwards into one of the league’s best young scorers, and if he fails to reach that point, it will be through no fault of the Bucks’ front office.

Best Case: Jabari continues his growth and becomes an elite scorer, defense becomes passable

Worst Case: Jabari becomes one-dimensional, growth stagnates

Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Point Guard

It’s already clear from our look at Antetokounmpo that the Bucks’ point guard position is not at all typical of an NBA team.

Michael Carter-Williams came into last season as the presumptive starter, but the former Rookie of the Year’s lack of shooting ability and propensity toward turnovers were some of the main causes behind his own benching and the inception of Point Giannis.

To pair with Antetokounmpo, it would seem that the Bucks would function best with a low-usage, defensive-minded floor spacer at the nominal point guard position. Matthew Dellavedova, brought in this offseason as a free agent, fits all these qualifications, but his arrival means the Bucks have a large decision on their hands.

Do they start Delly and risk alienating MCW on the bench? Do they remain with Carter-Williams at the starter, a configuration that has already proved troublesome?

Personal feelings aside, it’s clear that Dellavedova should be starting to begin the season; on paper his fit is perfect, and Bucks fans should only be encouraged from what they saw from him during the Olympics.