National Basketball Association

Michael Carter-Williams for Ben McLemore? Who Should the Kings Take?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:04 p.m. ET

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Nov 25, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) during the game against the Sacramento Kings at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Sacramento won 129-118. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Reports suggest that the Milwaukee Bucks offered Michael Carter-Williams to the Sacramento Kings for Ben McLemore and the Kings declined.  Was that the correct move to make?

ESPN’s Marc Stein first reported that the Bucks called the Kings and offered up Michael Carter-Williams (MCW) in exchange for Ben McLemore.

Here is a highlight video of Michael Carter-Williams from last season to give you a glimpse into his on-court abilities.

This is an interesting trade offer on many levels.  Carter-Williams’ NBA credentials are more impressive having won Rookie of the Year in 2013-2014.  The Kings had the chance to take MCW in the 2013 NBA draft at pick seven and instead opted to take Ben McLemore.  Sacramento is needy at point guard and on defense two things Carter-Williams excels at.  Let us break down the players further to examine if the Kings made the correct decision in declining the Bucks offer.

Feb 11, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Ben McLemore (23) reacts after being fouled during the fourth quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Milwaukee won 111-103. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive Production

First, let us kick this off with saying that the two men play different positions, so the stats do not always compare apples to apples, but let us dive into their offensive production and see what we can learn.

Both players are historically bad shooters from the field in their early careers.  Carter-Williams’ shoots 41.2% for his career and McLemore is slightly better at 41.4%.  The difference truly lies in their three-point and free throw efficiency.  Carter-Williams’ sinks a poor 25.5% from three and 69.0% from the free throw line compared to McLemore’s 34.6% and 78.6% respectively.

For the traditional statistics let us view per 36 minutes to get a look at the players if they played the same number of minutes for their career.  Carter-Williams’ career per 36 minute averages is 0.6 threes, 1.2 offensive rebounds, 6.7 assists, 3.8 turnovers, and 16.0 points.  McLemore’s numbers rate out at 1.7 threes, 0.7 offensive rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.9 turnovers, and 12.8 points.  The clear statistical output edge goes to Carter-Williams, but the efficiency edge lies with McLemore.

Nov 25, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) chases the loose ball in front of Sacramento Kings center Kosta Koufos (41) during the first quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Production

Let us examine the per 36 minutes defensive stats to see how the players compare in that area.  Carter-Williams’ averages 4.9 defensive rebounds, 1.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 3.1 personal fouls per 36 minutes.  Compared to McLemore’s 2.9 defensive rebounds, 1.0 steal, 0.3 blocks, and 3.2 personal fouls.  Again, the statistical output edge lies with Carter-Williams, but let us examine how the players rate by the advanced metrics for a different look.

Dec 5, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Ben McLemore (23) dribbles against the Houston Rockets in the second half at Toyota Center. Rockets won 120-111. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Advanced Metric

The first advanced metric we will view is box score plus/minus and value over replacement player (VORP).  Carter-Williams has a career average negative 1.2 offensive box score plus/minus and positive 0.7 defensive.  McLemore’s career average offensive is negative 0.9 and negative 1.3 defensive.  Carter-Williams rates significantly better in VORP with a career total of positive 2.3 compared to McLemore’s negative 0.3.

For a different viewpoint let us examine win shares.  Carter-Williams cumulative offensive win shares for his career are negative 3.3, but he produced a positive 6.6 defensive win shares.  McLemore has created positive 1.2 offensive win shares and positive 2.4 defensive win shares for his career.  Win shares per 48 minutes (0.100 is league average) rates both players very similar with Carter-Williams at 0.025 and McLemore at 0.027.  All stats and advanced metrics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

The advanced metrics are very much a mixed bag.  VORP rates Carter-Williams significantly better, but win shares per 48 minutes rates McLemore as the slightly better player.

Nov 2, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Milwaukee Bucks point guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) grabs his ankle after an apparent injury against the Brooklyn Nets during the fourth quarter at Barclays Center. The Bucks defeated the Nets 103-96. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Injuries

I would be remiss if I did not mention the injury history of both players.  Michael Carter-Williams has had numerous injuries in his three-year NBA career.  According to Fox Sports, he had left hip surgery last March marking the eighth document injury in his career.  He played a career-high 70 games his rookie season and that number has decreased every year including playing just 54 games last season.

Ben McLemore had not missed an NBA game in his career until last season.  He had wrist, back, and finger injuries last season according to Fox Sports.  That depressed his games played to 68, almost matching MCW’s career high.

Michael Carter-Williams’ lengthy injury history has to be concerning for any team acquiring him.  He is young and he could put the injuries behind him, but it is hard to project more than 70 games for him in any season moving forward until he actually plays it.

Apr 2, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Ben McLemore (23) in the fourth quarter against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Summary and Conclusion

Let us review the nuggets we have picked up so far.  Ben McLemore is the more efficient offensive player, but Michael Carter-Williams produces more offensive statistics.  Carter-Williams defensive statistical production is greater as well.  The advanced metrics rate McLemore as the better offensive player and Carter-Williams as the better defensive player.  VORP, also, rates Carter-Williams as the better player, but win shares per 48 minutes prefers McLemore.  McLemore has a definite advantage in being healthier and staying on the court.

So, which side of the trade should the Kings want to own?

I believe the Kings made the correct choice in keeping Ben McLemore.  Carter-Williams is a year plus older, is a significantly worse offensive player, and that injury history scares me.  Ben McLemore is 23 years old and by no means a finished product.  If the Kings can improve his defense this season, he will improve his advanced metrics and rocket past Carter-Williams in that area.

There is a chance the Kings still make this trade and if they can get the Bucks to improve their offer it might be worth the Kings while, but straight up I would prefer to have Ben McLemore to Michael Carter-Williams if I am the Sacramento Kings.

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