National Basketball Association

Iverson, Shaq, Yao, and penalty time since 1998

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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A few weeks ago, I introduced foul drawn percentages to help measure foul-drawing by players. This post will look at a metric to help with that part of the game for teams, with penalty time.

As a reminder, the penalty situation occurs when a team commits either four team fouls before two minutes remain in a quarter or, if that hasn’t happened, one team foul within the final two minutes. In overtimes, the four-foul limit drops to three. Once the penalty comes into play, any team foul leads to two free throws instead of just fouls on shot attempts. This felt necessary to explain because the penalty situation during the Olympics was slightly different under FIBA rules.

Some work was done last season related to the penalty, which can be found here. About one-fourth of all possessions occurred with the penalty in effect, and it boosted offensive rating by an average of 2.3 points per 100 possessions, from 108.0 to 110.3. But not all quarters were the same. Only 16 percent of first quarter possessions featured the penalty, 27 percent for second and third quarters, and about one-third of all fourth quarter possessions. First to third quarters saw a combined increase of 0.6 points per 100 possessions, but with late-game fouling there was a six-point improvement in fourth quarters. We also have a good idea of what the penalty does to free throw rate, increasing it by 25 percent.

Unfortunately, possession-related statistics back to the 1997-98 season have been a challenge to add up for several reasons. Penalty time was easier despite the offensive charging foul incorrectly counted as a team foul in play-by-play feeds. Regardless, we might not know how many possessions involved the penalty over the last couple of decades and how much of a difference it made in efficiency when fouling was more frequent, but we’ll at least know how much actual time teams spent scoring and defending with no fouls to give.

Check out the table below which includes penalty time, takes into account total minutes, compares it to league averages, and a bit more. One percent of a game spent in the penalty usually equaled about 28 seconds.

TABLEAU CODE HERE

So league averages have gone from nearly 30 percent of all playing time involving the penalty in 2000 to below 25 last season, or from 14 minutes of penalty time per game to 11, and it only took a couple less team fouls per 48 minutes to have that kind of effect. Team fouls helped explain one theory why the difference in efficiency wasn’t all that large last season. While free throw rates get boosted just by every team foul leading to free throws, maybe teams foul less as often once they have no fouls left to give?

Below is a look at team fouls per 48 minutes, subtracting the rate of fouls in the penalty situation by team fouls one through four.

With the help of late-game fouling, teams typically drew a couple more team fouls in the penalty per 48 minutes. Maybe the rare occasion when a team had a foul to give at the very end of a quarter helps lower efficiency while in the penalty, too? Regardless, last season’s Los Angeles Clippers stuck out because of DeAndre Jordan. They averaged 18.6 drawn team fouls per 48 minutes when not in the bonus, but 27.3 when in it for a net of +8.7, two fouls higher than the second-highest rate that belongs to the 1999 Detroit Pistons. If we filter out fourth quarters and overtimes, last season’s Hawks had the fifth worst mark at -2.8 and the Knicks were at -2.7, again, meaning they drew fouls at a lower rate when they had the penalty in their favor. Utah was one of the top teams to foul more when defending with no fouls to give, committing 3.8 more fouls per 48 minutes than when they were not defending in the penalty.

But while the Clippers have been noted, the Houston Rockets were the team with Hack-a-Shaq candidates to show up in games with the most amount of penalty time last season. It wasn’t as bad as previous eras, though. The late-1990s and early-2000s are commonly viewed as stale and other words meaning it was less exciting, partly because of the fouling and partly because of the Greg Ostertags and Jim McIlvaines committing the fouls, but the mid-2000s also stuck out. Below is a look at the longest amount of time a single team spent scoring in the penalty, and then a look at penalty time by both teams combined:

If we look at the combined penalty time from both teams in a single game, however, that’s when we go back to the late-1990s and early-2000s:

In both tables, we get a lot of the Utah Jazz when they were coached by Jerry Sloan. They’re probably the most noticeable team in the Tableau dashboard, for better or for worse. From 1998 to 2010, the worst the Jazz placed in penalty time on offense was sixth. They were ninth in 2011, but they dropped in the rankings over the final 28 games coached by Tyrone Corbin, after Sloan resigned, and the team dealt with a blockbuster trade involving Deron Williams. Unfortunately, Utah was also defending in the penalty a similar amount, and sometimes much longer than on offense. The Jazz have four of the eight best averages in penalty time on offense, relative to league averages, but five of the worst 11 on defense, and three of the ten longest penalty times in a game were allowed by the 2005 squad. Utah could count on Karl Malone, Andrei Kirilenko, and Deron Williams to draw fouls, but centers such as Greg Ostertag, Olden Polynice, and Jarron Collins frequently averaged over five fouls committed per 36 minutes.

Overall, though, the Jazz were above-average in penalty time in their favor 18 of the 19 seasons. The only team to finish that well more frequently was the San Antonio Spurs, but on defense.

We’ll see how this changes without Tim Duncan, but the San Antonio’s transition offensively is apparent here, going from a grind-it-out style to shifting more responsibility to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and then handing it to Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Looking at last season, both the Jazz and Spurs finished well on defense, but so did a poor defense like Brooklyn’s, which finished fourth in allowed penalty time and first in allowed free throw rate, but were one of the worst defenses because they allowed the highest effective field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns appeared three times in the most penalty time allowed in a game last season and allowed the most over the entire season. Like Brooklyn, Phoenix was one of the worst defenses, but it didn’t help that they also allowed a high effective field goal percentage and helped teams with all of their turnovers.

Penalty time doesn’t save an offense or defense from sputtering, but it does have a strong correlation with free throw rate, r^2s anywhere between .60 and .80 depending on what kind of quarter filter was used. There were no strong correlations when measuring fiddling with possession-related statistics from last season.

So those were some team examples. Let’s look at some more, but with the help of specific players, like three inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend.

Shaquille O’Neal

From 1998 to 2016, Shaq takes up six of the top 11 places in free throw attempts per 100 possessions and 10 of the top 50, minimum 1,000 minutes in a season. Unfortunately, foul drawn percentages and per-minute rates go from 2006 to last season. By 2006, Shaq was entering his mid-30s, yet still held foul-drawing marks near the top, and even those stats didn’t capture his prime. We can get something of an idea what it was like with penalty time. Opponents of the 1998 Lakers had no fouls to give an average of 35 percent of each game, the second-highest mark dating back to that season. Almost all of his teams were above league averages in penalty time for offense, and each team he joined during his best years saw an immediate spike.

Check out the chart below, showing the penalty time on offense from the Lakers, Heat, and Suns with bold lines marking when Shaq played for each team. Well, except for the marks for league averages.

Of course, those solid marks for the Lakers and increases elsewhere weren’t only because of Shaq. While he was with the Lakers, Kobe Bryant took a healthy number of free throws while the rest of his game evolved. After the Shaq trade, Los Angeles stayed at or above-average in penalty time with the help of Lamar Odom, Chris Mihm, Kwame Brown (seriously, those two), and later Pau Gasol. For the Heat, there was Dwyane Wade’s growth, attempting eight free throws per 100 possessions during his rookie year but never dipping that low again until 2014. For Phoenix, it looked like they were on the uptick in penalty time with or without Shaq thanks to Amar’e Stoudemire returning after he missed most of the 2006 season.

Still, Shaq was a beast. It’s easy to pick on his poor free throw shooting, but his high frequency of and-1s offset it. We can also look at the amount of penalty time he, along with players like Dwight Howard, helped give his teams as a reason to not make too much of a fuss about free throw percentages.

Allen Iverson

While penalty time goes back to only 1998, there’s reason to believe Iverson had an impact on the Sixers’ penalty time as soon as he arrived in the league. Philadelphia already had Jerry Stackhouse, another foul-drawing machine, but they went from 13th in free throws per game in 1996 to 1st during Iverson’s rookie year (with the help of a faster-paced team), and finished in the top 10 for most of his Sixers seasons. When it came to penalty time, Philadelphia was frequently in the top ten with Iverson, and sometimes in the top five.

Like Shaq, it wasn’t all on Iverson, though. Philadelphia was a team that shot from “close” range. Looking at Basketball-Reference’s shot data, they were frequently one of the worst teams in three-point rate, but also below-average to near the bottom in the league in attempted two-pointers outside 15 feet. That may have helped with getting to the free throw line, along with solid marks in offensive rebounding. Iverson also got scoring help in the form of free throws from Larry Hughes, Dikembe Mutombo, Marc Jackson, and Corliss Williamson, and the Sixers stayed afloat after Iverson was traded thanks to Iguodala’s increased usage, Lou Williams growing into that spark off the bench, and Reggie Evans being an all-around pest.

With Carmelo Anthony, Denver had similar penalty stats on offense as the Sixers, but it didn’t change much when they traded for Iverson. Below is a chart like Shaq’s but just showing the Sixers and Nuggets from 1998 to 2010:

On one hand, two players who can generate a ton of free throws sounds great, but there are only so many possessions in a game, drawing a foul typically takes time and effort rather than a simple catch-and-pump-fake sequence, and stretching the floor matters, too. When combining foul-drawing stats with shot tendencies, dribbles and time with the ball, and usage across an entire roster, maybe there’s just a certain point when free throw rate and penalty time peak and become toxic to an offense (and a fan’s eyes). Miami, with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, for example, were only in the top 10 in penalty time once (2011) but the eventual increase in threes worked out just fine. It’s only natural to compliment high-usage players like those two with floor spacing instead of players who eat it up while drawing the occasional foul.

Iverson was a terrific foul-drawer, though, probably at an unhealthy level for a player his size and minute load. His 2006 campaign, at age 30, is the most notable, drawing the highest amount of team fouls per 36 minutes by a guard over the last decade, .70 more than a much younger Russell Westbrook in 2015 and over a full foul more than James Harden’s rates the last two seasons.

Yao Ming

Yao’s impact here actually feels incomplete. He drew his fair share fouls, but below the rate of Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, and Shaq. The same goes for Tracy McGrady when compared to the likes of Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. Houston’s penalty time doesn’t look great during Yao and McGrady’s seasons there, though, because there weren’t many free throws coming from the Shane Battier types of role players and because the duo missed significant chunks of time after their 2005 campaign.

With Yao, Houston’s offense was never in the elite category, but they were great defensively and fine in penalty time allowed before he even played a minute. The Rockets finished 2002, their last before Yao’s arrival, with the lowest percentage of minutes defended in the penalty over the last couple of decades, relative to league averages, which matches the few free throws they allowed, but were the league’s worst defense. A player of Yao’s size and coordination patched things up pretty quickly, taking Houston from 29th in defense to 14th and frequently in the top five while their penalty time allowed fluctuated.

Among several other impacts on the game, Shaq, Iverson, and Yao all made a mark when it came to fouls and free throws, though Shaq’s feels like the largest and Yao’s not totally accounted for because of his health. Fouling and free throws obviously aren’t everything that goes into scoring or defending, though. Free throws are an efficient way to score and not allowing them is a deceptive way to improve a defense, but Shaq’s teams typically had a healthy amount of three-point shooting, took care of the ball, and cleaned up the defensive glass. Iverson and the Sixers drew a ton of fouls and were solid on the boards, but couldn’t overcome their poor outside shooting.

Houston’s penalty time allowed was up and down, fine overall, but Yao’s (and Dikembe Mutombo’s) consistent ability to rebound and prevent shots at the rim was huge. In the current NBA, Kevin Durant’s foul-drawing will be a nice addition to a Warriors team that was below-average last season in team fouls drawn and free throw rate, but his shooting range was one of a few more important reasons why it was just unfair for him to sign with Golden State.

Regardless, like foul drawn percentages and per-minute rates for players, hopefully penalty time and future posts about it add to the conversation of fouls rather than only looking at free throw attempts and rates.

One last note. Numbers from last season slightly differ from what was included in a previous post. Nine minutes off. Putting team fouls in every quarter of a game into something of a grid and making sure every third foul has a second team foul, for example, fixed up a few pesky errors. This had no effect on calculating foul drawn percentages, though, as the process for calculating each was very different.