National Basketball Association

5 NBA Teams That Will Regress In 2016-17

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:28 p.m. ET

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Heading into the 2016-17 NBA season, here’s a look at five teams that could be due for regression after relatively successful 2015-16 seasons.

Mar 4, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) competes for a loose ball against Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Trail Blazers 117-115. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA is a constant whirlpool, with ripple effects that spread far and wide throughout the league with every free agency signing, trade or new draft pick that sets a new wave in motion.

Unlike the NFL or even the MLB, the path to team success in the NBA is far more formulaic and predictable. Entering each new season, you pretty much know who the championship contenders are. You know who will be fighting for a playoff spot, you know who will be tanking for a high draft pick, and you can usually identify the teams that will be somewhere in the middle.

As much as that predictability went out the window with the Golden State Warriors’ 3-1 NBA Finals collapse in 2016, there are always teams that become trendy picks for breakout years entering each new season, just as there are candidates for regression.

Heading into the 2016-17 NBA season, Kevin Durant‘s free agency decision isn’t the only major transaction that will play a part in some teams’ rise and other teams’ fall in both conferences.

To try and make sense of what happened this summer — and what we can expect this upcoming season — here’s a look at five teams that could be due for some regression in 2016-17.

NOTE: We’re excluding the Oklahoma City Thunder from this list because duh. They lost Kevin Durant. Of course they’re going to regress!

Oct 8, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard (2) grabs a loose ball against the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

5. San Antonio Spurs

Ok, so maybe this one is a bit obvious. The San Antonio Spurs are coming off a franchise-record 67-win season, Tim Duncan retired and Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are another year older. But for years now, the Spurs have racked up regular season wins like it was their job. Death, taxes, Spurs winning at least 50 games.

In 2016-17, that will likely be the case again. Gregg Popovich is as sharp as ever, Danny Green should be more efficient this season, and Leonard is coming off a career year in which he finished second in MVP voting and repeated as the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year.

That being said, this aging team is still reeling from a second round upset at the hands of the Thunder, and as tantalizing as a Kawhi Leonard-LaMarcus Aldridge duo ushering in a post-Duncan era sounds, there are still a lot of question marks here.

The bench is as unproven as it was in last year’s playoffs, when all that regular season confidence transformed into inexperience and severely limited minutes.

At the forefront of these concerns, though, is the Pau Gasol addition. Gasol is still a tremendous asset at age 36, and averaged 16.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.0 blocks per game last season. His passing will be an idyllic fit within the Spurs’ intelligent offense, which specializes in always making the right play.

However, don’t let Gasol’s gaudy block numbers fool you; this is a definite downgrade on the defensive end of the floor. San Antonio should be fine on that end, but they won’t be the league leaders in defensive rating again in 2016-17. Sacrificing Boris Diaw‘s versatility to make room for Gasol was a risky move, and losing guys like Boban Marjanovic and David West stings a bit.

Make no mistake about it, the Spurs should be one of the top two or three seeds in the Western Conference. But the Los Angeles Clippers could very well pass them by in the standings, and with Parker and Ginobili looking increasingly unable to orchestrate the offense off the dribble, this team is a far cry from the Golden State Warriors juggernaut assembling in the Bay.

Sep 26, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Toronto Raptors guards DeMar DeRozan (10) and Kyle Lowry (7) pose for pictures during media day at BioSteel Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

4. Toronto Raptors

The Cleveland Cavaliers are the undisputed alphas in the East, and the Boston Celtics have rapidly become a trendy pick for that No. 2 spot after adding Al Horford. The Toronto Raptors, coming off a franchise-record 56 wins, probably aren’t getting the respect they deserve.

For starters, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan finally showed signs of exorcising their recurring playoff demons, leading the Raptors to the conference finals for the first time in franchise history. Jonas Valanciunas is due for his long-awaited breakout season, Norman Powell has a bright future and Toronto has something going for it that Boston doesn’t — continuity.

That being said, how much better can we expect the Raptors to get, realistically? They’re still searching for the right fit at power forward, and Jared Sullinger is not the answer. Losing Bismack Biyombo hurts the frontcourt depth, even for those high on Jakob Poeltl‘s potential.

With teams like the Celtics, Indiana Pacers, and Detroit Pistons all on the rise, the top of the East got a little tougher for the upcoming season. The margin for error will be slim, and 56 wins — not to mention concurring career years from 30-year-old Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan again in 2016-17 — feels unsustainable.

Perhaps we’ll be wrong on this prediction. Perhaps the Raptors will find a way to set another franchise record for wins, make it to back-to-back conference finals and set about acquiring the star power forward that launches them into the legitimate title contender category. Having Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll healthy this time around could make a huge difference.

But Carroll struggled when he was healthy last year, so for the time being, it feels like 2015-16 may have been as good as it gets for “We The North.” Until they can upgrade that roster, the Raptors are still missing an essential piece compared to more complete teams like the Cavs and Celtics.

Oct 10, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Dwight Howard (8) looks to pass the ball as Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Jones (1) defends in the second quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

3. Atlanta Hawks

If Dwight Howard struggles with health problems as he has over the last few seasons — and even if he doesn’t — the Atlanta Hawks could be in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs in 2016-17.

Head coach Mike Budenholzer’s ability to create a functioning offense and a top-5 defense given his personnel shouldn’t be overlooked. Paul Millsap remains one of the NBA’s most underrated players, Howard will help what was one of the worst rebounding teams in the league last season, and Dennis Schroder seems primed for a breakout year.

However, Schroder is nowhere near the steady hand that Jeff Teague was at the point guard spot, and at age 31, Dwight Howard is not the rim protector he once was — nor is he the positional, versatile defender that Al Horford was. Gone are the days when the Hawks could swarm ball handlers in the pick and roll 25 feet away from the basket.

Horford’s developing three-point touch — or at the very least, his midrange efficiency — helped spread the floor for a wide open Hawks offense. Howard has been practicing his jumpers over the offseason, but he can hardly be expected to spread the floor in similar fashion.

Tiago Splitter is hurt again, Millsap is now 31, Schroder is expected to take his lumps as he adjusts to the starting role and for all the rebounds he’s going to pull down, Howard’s game is dependent on athleticism that’s starting to wane.

Schroder-Howard pick-and-rolls are going to be fun, and teams will have a hard time scoring inside against a Millsap-Howard frontcourt duo. The Hawks shouldn’t be written off as a lottery team just yet, but it seems like another season of regression will be in play in 2016-17.

May 11, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts (right) instructs guard C.J. McCollum (3) against the Golden State Warriors during the second quarter in game five of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

2. Portland Trail Blazers

After shocking the world by winning 44 games and reaching the second round of the playoffs, the Portland Trail Blazers proved they were far more than the tanking outfit most projected them to be. The depressing vibes from LaMarcus Aldridge’s departure were quickly replaced by optimism in Damian Lillard’s leadership, C.J. McCollum’s breakout year and the future of a budding core.

However, in a down year for the West, it was hard to buy too much into Portland’s feel-good season. They probably wouldn’t have made it to the second round without season-ending injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and if the West had been as strong as it was in 2013-14, when 48 games wasn’t enough for a postseason berth, Portland wouldn’t have been there at all.

General manager Neil Olshey didn’t seem to agree with the notion that Rip City’s success was a fluke, splurging in the offseason to keep the team’s young core intact while also adding Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli to the mix. Now the question is whether another year of internal development will be enough for Portland to take the next step forward.

Lillard and McCollum are locked in for the next five seasons, but $250 million is a hefty investment for a backcourt that can’t defend anyone. Turner brings playmaking and defensive versatility to the bench, but his lack of a three-point shot means he’s not particularly useful off the ball, especially since his midrange specialty might not jive with Portland’s three-point attack.

The Oklahoma City Thunder lost Kevin Durant, but they’ll still be in the playoff hunt. The Houston Rockets are going all in on a high-powered offense under Mike D’Antoni and the Utah Jazz got significantly better with their offseason additions.

Rick Carlisle is a warlock who always has the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs, the Los Angeles Clippers are healthy, the Memphis Grizzlies added Chandler Parsons, the New Orleans Pelicans still have Anthony Davis and even dark horses like the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets can’t be written off.

Portland’s ability to take the next step forward relies on younger players proving themselves as long-term complements to the Lillard-McCollum backcourt. Are youngsters like Meyers Leonard, Maurice Harkless, Allen Crabbe, Noah Vonleh and the oft-injured Ezeli ready for the challenge? For now, it seems like a tall task. The Blazers might not “regress,” but the rest of the West may have caught up.

Mar 17, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (tight) talks with Heat center Hassan Whiteside (left) during the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

1. Miami Heat

From a team morale standpoint, it’s been decades since it’s been this tough to be a Miami Heat fan.