St. Louis Cardinals Top Five Offseason Priorities
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What moves could the St. Louis Cardinals make to help them get back in the playoffs next year? Here are five items they should put on their offseason to-do list.
Earlier today we looked back on the St. Louis Cardinals‘ 2016 season, examining both the good and not-so-good aspects of their campaign. The thing Cards fans will probably remember most about this year is that for the first time since 2010 the team missed the postseason. The Chicago Cubs took control of the division early and never let go, relegating the Cardinals to the unfamiliar position of being overshadowed.
That’s not to say the season was an all-out disaster, however. The Redbirds finished one game out of a Wild Card spot. While that’s an agonizingly close margin by which to fall short, it’s also somewhat remarkable considering all the injuries and underwhelming performances the team had to deal with this year. If certain things break right next season, they stand a good chance of being right back in the October mix.
General manager John Mozeliak will try to set the stage for a return to the playoffs over the offseason. There are a variety of areas he should look to address, from a suspect starting rotation to a troublesome defense. There’s not a whole lot out there on the free agent market, so he’ll likely have to get a bit creative.
The Cubs aren’t going anywhere, but the Cards can quickly re-assert themselves as a competitor in the NL Central. Here are five moves they can make in the coming months to springboard themselves toward better results in 2017.
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Acquire a Center Fielder
Perhaps the most pressing and intriguing question for the St. Louis Cardinals to answer this offseason is what to do with the outfield. They have already announced they will not be picking up their option on Matt Holliday, effectively ending the aging veteran’s tenure with the franchise. Brandon Moss will also be a free agent, and though he finished second on the team with 28 home runs this year, he doesn’t bring much else to the table (.225/.300/.484 slash) and at 33 years old, he isn’t the youngest guy anymore either.
The Cards seem likely to move Randal Grichuk out of center field and into left, replacing him with either a plus defender or bat (or preferably some combination of the two). The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold has pegged the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon and White Sox’s Adam Eaton as potential trade acquisition candidates.
Grichuk showed some pop at the plate this season with 24 homers, but his defense in center wasn’t particularly noteworthy (1.0 UZR/150). While Eaton rates as one of the best defensive right fielders in the league (25.5 UZR/150), he doesn’t rate nearly as good in center (-0.3 UZR/15). Neither does Blackmon (-11.9 UZR/150). Blackmon, however, is coming off a career year at the plate, slashing .324/.381/.552 with 29 home runs and 82 RBI. And don’t dismiss those numbers as inflated by Coors Field either: his OPS was only .013 points lower on the road, and he actually hit five more home runs as a visitor.
If the Cards could pry Blackmon away from Colorado (easier said than done – they won’t lack for suitors), he should provide them a major boost in offense over what they got this year from Holliday, and probably Moss as well.
All defensive statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.com.
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Keep Oh as Closer
Trevor Rosenthal had a great run as St. Louis Cardinals closer in 2014 and 2015, racking up a combined 93 saves between those seasons. But he struggled noticeably in 2016, and it got bad enough that the club decided to remove him from the closer’s role in July. By the time he went down with a shoulder injury later in the month, he owned a 5.13 ERA and had blown four saves.
Given his past track record, the Cards might be tempted to give Rosenthal a chance to reclaim his old job next spring. But Seung-hwan Oh performed so admirably as his replacement that St. Louis is probably better off not messing with a good thing.
The Korean reliever was somewhat of a wild card when St. Louis signed him last offseason, but he eventually became the lead man in the Cards’ pen. The 34-year-old posted a 1.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 5.72 K/BB ratio over 79.2 innings while converting 19 of 23 save opportunities.
With Oh’s 2017 option already kicked in for a bargain-bin $2.75 million, the Cardinals should maximize that value by letting him remain in the ninth inning. They could be tempted to splurge on a brand-name closer on the free agent market, but it would probably be better to spend elsewhere or save.
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Pick Up Garcia’s Option
The starting rotation was one of the more underwhelming components of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2016 campaign. GM John Mozeliak will have to spend some time thinking about ways to set the staff up for a better performance next year. One decision he’ll definitely need to make is whether to pick up the $12 million option on left-hander Jaime Garcia for 2017.
Garcia had a year to forget, putting up a 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 2.63 K/BB over 171.2 frames. He made 30 starts and two relief appearances. Those numbers don’t exactly paint the picture of a player you’d fall over yourself to keep, especially at a figure of $12 million. However, there is reason to believe that picking up the option could pay off next season.
It was a disappointing showing considering the strong results Garcia generated the year before. In 2015 he worked a 2.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.32 K/BB, albeit in only 20 outings as he worked his way back from thoracic outlet syndrome. Garcia has an injury history, having undergone Tommy John surgery in 2008 and being limited to just 16 appearances between 2013 and 2014.
However, when Garcia has been able to take the mound throughout his eight-year career, he’s generally been above average. Between 2010 and 2015, he managed a 3.25 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 116 starts. Though he turned 30 in July, the Cards can make a bet that he bounces back in 2017.
Given the various question marks in the St. Louis rotation (Adam Wainwright‘s future, Lance Lynn‘s return from TJS, whether Michael Wacha will rebound, etc.), it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep Garcia around as insurance. The free agent options aren’t much better and will certainly demand commitments greater than one year at $12 million.
The barren pitching landscape could also work to the Cardinals’ advantage if they pick up Garcia’s option and then look to trade him sometime before or during the season.
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Find a Viable Backup Catcher
Yadier Molina had something of a resurgence at the plate this year, slashing .307/.360/.427 in 147 games. His .787 OPS was a big uptick from last season’s .660 and his highest since 2013 (.836). While that’s a welcome sign to the St. Louis Cardinals and their fans, Yadi is still 34 years old. His defense has also slipped from once-elite territory. He posted -1 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) this year after averaging 13.5 DRS from 2012 to 2015. It’s become increasingly important for the Redbirds to have a solid backup behind Molina on the depth chart.
While Molina gave the Cards plenty of innings behind the dish this year, they would probably like to lessen his workload over the next couple seasons. A veritable carousel of catchers performed backup duties in 2016, including Brayan Pena, Eric Fryer, Alberto Rosario and Carson Kelly. The only one who you could say separated himself was Fryer, who slashed .368/.415/.421 in 24 contests before being traded to the Pirates. Pena played in only nine games due to a left knee injury.
Nevertheless, St. Louis should try to settle on one main backup for 2017. The free agent pool isn’t particularly enticing, but they have a couple in-house options. Pena is under contract next year at $2.5 million, and with 12 seasons in the league under his belt, he’s an experienced candidate. However, the more intriguing choice could be 22-year-old Carson Kelly.
Kelly is the Cardinals’ 11th-ranked prospect as per MLB Pipeline. He went just 2-for-13 this season after making his major league debut in September, but scouts have praised his potential. A converted third baseman, MLB.com says his strong arm plays well behind the plate and while he has struggled to find consistency with the bat, he could be a power hitter at the big league level.
Adam Felder of Today’s Knuckleball argues that learning every day from Molina and manager (and former catcher) Mike Matheny is the next logical step for Kelly. Without many other alluring alternatives, it might make the most sense to go with the youth and upside.
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Improve the Defense
Lackluster defense was a real thorn in the side of the St. Louis Cardinals this season. They ranked 13th in baseball with 4 DRS, 24th with a -4.9 UZR/150 and 24th in Fangraph’s Defense Rating with -32.8.
It’s not too hard to understand why. Jason Heyward was responsible for 24 DRS in the outfield last year. In 2016, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss accounted for 7 DRS combined. As previously mentioned, it would behoove the Cards to introduce a center fielder into the mix with some defensive talent.
In the infield, St. Louis will need to shuffle their pieces around to find the best arrangement. Matt Carpenter is likely a better defensive option at first base over Matt Adams (4.0 UZR/150 vs. 1.3 this year). He’s also much more of a threat with the stick.
The opposite corner of the diamond is another interesting spot. Jedd Gyorko did a much better job at third base than Jhonny Peralta, posting an 8.4 UZR/150 to Peralta’s -19.7. He also put up 2 DRS to Peralta’s -7. The veteran Peralta is a shortstop by trade, but Aledmys Diaz has that position on lock. Peralta is under contract for another season, but he will be 35 next year and it might make sense to start phasing him out. He put up a .715 OPS in 82 games this season (torn thumb ligament), and Gyorko’s team-leading 30 homers makes it easier to make the full-time switch.
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Poor defense took its toll on the Cards’ underachieving rotation. Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake and Michael Wacha all experienced sizable disparities between their ERAs and FIPs this year. A tighter defense could lead to them all having substantially improved results in 2017.
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