St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals: Lefty Replacements for Zach Duke in AFL

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

The St. Louis Cardinals will lack their lefty powerhouse from 2016 in 2017 thanks to surgery. The Cardinals’ internal sleeper options are on display in the Arizona Fall League.

The St. Louis Cardinals must decide how to move forward in the wake of the Zach Duke news. Should they go outside for a replacement? My recommendation would be that the club would be wise to use an internal option and, lucky for Mozeliak, two of these options are on display in the AFL.

Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales are considered internal options to replace Duke. Neither of these two names are pitching in the AFL. Before digging into the AFL stats of the younger candidates, let’s take a moment to look at these two arms.

While Lyons has contributed to the club in the past four seasons, Gonzales was sidelined in 2016 due to injury. Before his injury though, Gonzales was an arm on the rise. Can he return to form in the Zach Duke role? Will Lyons transition from a long relief arm to a shut-down arm in the Duke role?

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Let’s look at the numbers for a glimpse of hope. First up, Lyons:

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP	WHIP
2013	25	STL	2	4	4.75	12	53.0	49	28	5	16	43	3.73	1.226
2014	26	STL	0	4	4.42	11	36.2	33	18	4	11	36	3.65	1.200
2015	27	STL	3	1	3.75	17	60.0	59	25	12	15	60	4.53	1.233
2016	28	STL	2	0	3.38	30	48.0	35	18	9	14	46	4.54	1.021
4 Yrs	7	9	4.05	70	197.2	176	89	30	56	185	4.16	1.174
162 Game Avg.	5	7	4.05	53	149	133	67	23	42	140	4.16	1.174

Lyons is a great left-handed pitcher for the Cardinals and has shown wonderful improvement over the course of his St. Louis Cardinals career. His ERA is becoming better each season. His strikeout numbers are good and his surrendered-run counts are becoming solid.

As was mentioned above, Lyons has been used in long relief of late even taking over games when the likes of Jaime Garcia has faltered. Lyons could well be a starter on a different team. Will he be a better solution in the Duke slot? Can he use his stuff to come in and shut down lefties and righties alike?

Have a quick look at Lyons’ splits:

Split	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
vs RHB	26	107	16	25	7	7	9	32	.234	.293	.495	.788	.265
vs LHB	27	64	4	10	0	2	5	14	.156	.214	.250	.464	.163
vs RHB as LHP	26	107	16	25	7	7	9	32	.234	.293	.495	.788	.265
vs LHB as LHP	27	64	4	10	0	2	5	14	.156	.214	.250	.464	.163

Remember these numbers as we will examine them with the others too. Batters hitting in the .150-.240 range excites me and makes me think that Lyons certainly affords the team the chance to NOT shop the market for a Zach Duke replacement.

How about Marco Gonzales? It will be great to have Gonzales return in 2017 but will he be back to form or will he need a season to re-season his arm? Let’s look at his performance before his injury:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP	WHIP
2013	21	STL-min	A+,Rk	0	0	2.70	8	23.1	18	7	1	8	23		1.114
2014	22	STL-min	AAA,AA,A+	9	5	2.43	21	122.0	110	33	10	27	117		1.123
2014	22	STL	NL	4	2	4.15	10	34.2	32	16	4	21	31	4.75	1.529
2015	23	STL-min	AAA,AA,A+	1	5	4.69	18	80.2	102	42	10	24	61		1.562
2015	23	STL	NL	0	0	13.50	1	2.2	7	4	1	1	1	8.38	3.000
2 Yrs	4	2	4.82	11	37.1	39	20	5	22	32	5.01	1.634
162 Game Avg.	16	8	4.82	44	149	156	80	20	88	128	5.01	1.634

Marco is a great pitcher so we would be wise to ignore the singe game blow-up that occurred in 2015 especially in light of the fact that this game indicated the first warning signs of injury. Move past that and you see a pitcher who was beginning to dominate the minor leagues.

How about his splits? While the sample size is relatively small, we can see that Gonzales has a bright future but might need more exposure before the organization can make decisions.

Split	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
vs RHB	1	14	3	7	1	1	0	1	.500	.500	.786	1.286	.500
vs LHB	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0		.500			.000
vs RHB as LHP	1	14	3	7	1	1	0	1	.500	.500	.786	1.286	.500
vs LHB as LHP	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0		.500			.000

The questions surrounding Marco is whether he is better suited for the Duke role or better suited for AAA play for a full season to replace Jaime Garcia beyond 2017 (should the St. Louis Cardinals pick up Garcia’s option). I personally feel that Marco gives greater worth as a starter than as a relief role.

Two pitchers in the St. Louis Cardinals system are interesting options that Derrick Goold calls the Cardinals’ sleeper options: Corey Littrell and Ryan Sherriff. Both Littrell and Sherriff are playing in the Arizona Fall League. Let’s look in on them.

First up, Littrell. Littrell will turn 25 at the start of the 2017 campaign and thus far in his career has climbed to the AAA level. How has he fared in the AFL? In four games, he has a record of 0-1 with a 2.57 ERA. He has allowed four hits over seven innings while striking out seven batters and allowing two earned runs and one home run.

In AFL play, Littrell has a 0.00 ERA when facing lefties and a 4.15 ERA against righties. Against lefties, he has struck out four batters and against righties has struck out three. These are promising numbers to consider if he would replace the Duke spot.

How about Ryan Sherriff? Sherriff will turn 27 after the start of the 2017 campaign and thus far in his career has- like Littrell above- climbed to the AAA level. In AFL play, he has appeared in four games and has an 0-1 record with a 8.31 ERA. Ouch, right? Nine hits, four earned runs, one home run, and seven strike outs across 4.1 innings. Ouch.

Sherriff performed much better in Memphis, however, and showed great promise there. Have a look here:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
2016	26	Memphis	AAA	7	1	2.84	49	3	66.2	66	21	4	23	55	1.335
All Levels (6 Seasons)		29	20	3.01	169	5	427.1	409	143	27	110	287	1.215

AAA (3 seasons)	Minors	7	1	2.96	56	3	76.0	78	25	6	27	61	1.382

Should we judge off of his Memphis time or the AFL time? What do you think? I believe that Sherriff could spell many things for the St. Louis Cardinals including serving as a replacement for Duke.

Of the options, I like the idea of Sherriff the most if the Cardinals would like to find an internal solution. I simply think that Littrell needs more time, Gonzales is a better option to start, and Lyons is a better long man. I’d rather have the team focus on using Sherriff.