Major League Baseball

Sellers have the edge at trade deadline

Published Jul. 26, 2011 1:00 a.m. ET

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Warning about baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline: Buyer, beware.

Oh, there are home runs to be hit, like Texas did a year ago when it hauled in Cliff Lee from Seattle for a package that’s value is tied directly to whatever Jason Smoak accomplishes, or like Philadelphia did in 2009 with the addition of Cliff Lee (there’s that name again).

Sellers, however, control the market. And in hindsight, it’s the seller who has the overall edge at deadline time.

Understand, this is a time where teams are grasping, looking for that player to put them over the hump, and they hit the jackpot (see Lee in Philadelphia and Texas).

There is a time when there is a push and the contender gets its desired instant impact but the seller benefits over the long run (see Detroit sending AA prospect John Smoltz to Atlanta for veteran Doyle Alexander).

More often than not, however, well …

Let’s put it this way. Good thing the deal to make the movie "Moneyball" was inked a few years back. Moneyball has gone bankrupt.

In the last three Julys, Moneyball's team, the A’s, have dealt right-handers Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Ryan Webb and Chad Gaudin; corner infielder Jack Hannahan, shortstop Orlando Cabrera and outfielder Matt Holliday.

And what do the A’s have to show for the wheeling and dealing?

Well, they have left-hander Josh Outman — who came as part of the package from the Cubs in the 2008 deal for Harden and Gaudin — and, in a roundabout way, third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, who was an offseason addition in 2009 from San Diego in exchange for Scott Hairston. The previous July, the A’s acquired Kouzmanoff from the Padres for Webb and Aaron Cunningham.

Bottom line? It is a seller’s market, and always has been.

The team that is selling is the one with nothing to lose. It’s the team that is going nowhere in a hurry, looking to reload, that can move a veteran player to create hope for the future.

Proof from the recent past that buyers need to beware this July:

• Atlanta was looking for a run-producing first baseman, and took a stab at Mark Teixeira, a Georgia Tech product in 2007. He was shipped to the Los Angeles Angels the following July. Texas, meanwhile, didn’t hit on their No. 1 target in that deal, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but the three "other players" in the deal have been hits: shortstop Elvis Andrus, closer Neftali Feliz and left-hander Matt Harrison.

• Running the Mets in 2004, Omar Minaya went looking for a veteran arm. This time he opted for Victor Zambrano from Tampa Bay. Zambrano battled arm problems, and went 10-14 in 39 games (35 starts), with the Mets. Meanwhile, left-handed prospect Scott Kazmir became a two-time All-Star in Tampa Bay.

• The Chicago White Sox acquired injury-slowed Jake Peavy in 2009 from San Diego. The Padres found financial relief, unloading the $52 million guaranteed over the ensuing three years. They filled a rotation void with left-handed starter Clayton Richard and were able to acquire shortstop Jason Bartlett from Tampa Bay for a package of players that included former White Sox pitching prospect Adam Russell.

• A year ago, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams, again looking for a quick fix, put Daniel Hudson in a deal to Arizona for veteran Edwin Jackson. While Jackson has been a .500 pitcher for the White Sox, Hudson has emerged as the one of the rising stars in the National League, becoming a key reason why the Diamondbacks find themselves in the NL West race a year later.

• Oakland dealt Carlos Gonzalez, who has emerged as an All-Star caliber player, and closer Huston Street, along with left-hander Greg Smith to Colorado in November of 2008 for outfielder Matt Holliday. By the next July, Holliday was on the move again, landing in St. Louis for a package built around Brett Wallace, who, in turn, was dealt by the A’s to Toronto. He was then sent to Houston, where he has advanced to the big leagues, which is more to say for any of the players the A’s received in return.

• In the final years of the Montreal Expos, Minaya, appointed by Major League baseball to be the team’s general manager, was looking to make a splash. In 2002, he acquired Bartolo Colon from the Cleveland Indians in a deal that underscored how the Expos talent base was decimated before the franchise moved to the nation's capital. Yes, Colon was 10-4 in 17 starts, but the Expos were 42-43 after the addition, and what would that Nationals team look like today if it had Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips, the keys to the Indians making that trade?

• Montreal made a similar go-for-it bid under the leadership of Dave Dombrowski when the Expos made a late-May trade in 1999 to acquire Mark Langston from Seattle. The Expos finished the season .500, Langston left as a free agent at season’s end and, well, in addition to the right-handed arms of Brian Holman and Gene Harris, the Mariners picked up erratic lefthander Randy Johnson.

• Texas found an All-Star, and a clubhouse force, when it was able to pick up infielder prospect Michael Young, who became the face of the Rangers franchise, from Toronto in 2000 for right-handed headache Esteban Loaiza, who bounced around with eight different franchises over a 14-season stretch.

• Three years ago, the Yankees acquired the veteran arm of Damaso Marte and veteran bat of Xavier Nady from a downtrodden Pittsburgh team, which this year is the surprise team of the NL. Two key arms for the current Pirates team belong to Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, both part of the package the Pirates attained from the Yankees for Marte and Nady.

• Houston couldn’t ask for more than Randy Johnson delivered when he was acquired from Seattle in 1998, but was it really worth it? Johnson was 10-1 in the final two months of the season, but despite allowing only three earned runs in two NL Division Series starts against San Diego, the Astros lost both, and Johnson left town that winter as a free agent. Meanwhile, right-hander Freddy Garcia, infielder Carlos Guillen and lefty John Halama filled voids for a Mariners team that was reloading in advance of what became the most successful time in the franchise’s history.

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