If anyone was surprised by the Boston Red Sox being swept by the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS, just look at their record down the stretch to know why it happened.
Let’s be honest: Is anyone that shocked by the sweep in the American League Division Series? The Red Sox looked to be limping into the playoffs, winning the A.L. East but peaking too early. After winning 18 out of 23 games, the Red Sox lost five out of the last six remaining matches of the regular season.
Did Boston’s highly-paid pitching staff make the games at least close? They actually allowed a combined 25 runs to the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays, while the Red Sox offence scored a combined 17 runs for a -8 run differential. If the Red Sox did not have the lead that they had in the division, and if the Blue Jays would not have lost 16 out of 27 games in September, Boston would not have even made it to the ALDS to lose to Cleveland.
If anything, the series looked much more like the 2015 season. The Red Sox were losing games like a sinking ship takes on water; there seemed to be no way of stopping the tide. Boston was 25th in the majors with a 4.31 team ERA and an opposing batting average of .264. They gave up the seventh most home runs (178) and the sixth most earned runs allowed (694).
The Red Sox still bled runs in 2016, allowing 640 runs; however, 22 other MLB teams did that much worse this season. The trend was the same for home runs. While the Red Sox gave up only two home runs fewer than last year, 22 teams gave up that much more. Boston was also able to lower their opposing batting average to .246, good enough for seventh best in the majors.
These results, combined with the success that the bats had in both seasons, explain why the Red Sox went from worst to first in the A.L. East. Yet, the numbers also demonstrate why they were set for a great fall in the ALDS.
Cleveland had some good bats of their own, hitting a team batting average of .262, good enough for sixth place in the majors. They also earned 777 runs, putting them second to the Red Sox in the American League in that offensive category. Even with a depleted pitching staff, due to injuries, Cleveland had enough arms to prove why they had a team ERA of 3.84. They were able to handle the slumping Red Sox offense while hitting against Boston’s regular pitching staff that posted a 4.00 ERA.
As Red Sox manager John Farrell tinkered with his lineup, switching Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts in the order, Cleveland was on cruise control at the end of the regular season. Their hitters and young pitchers built up some consistency, as they easily won the A.L. Central division weeks before. In the same span, the Red Sox were experimenting, putting Andrew Benintendi and Brock Holt at the top of the lineup and changing the starting rotation to fit with their plans.
Sometimes, a team needs to experiment with new tactics to boost a part of their game; however, nothing beats consistent experience in the same roles over a greater span of time. Cleveland just kept winning, including all three games in the ALDS. It’s not a bad thing that Boston tried to change their fate, but the lack of experience in their young players combined with the lack of consistency at the end of the season just spelled trouble in the playoffs. It was unfortunate for the Red Sox, but it was definitely not surprising.
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