Phillies Rumors: The 40-Man Roster Decisions
Mar 3, 2015; Clearwater, FL, USA; Buchanan (55) walks back to the dugout against the New York Yankees during a spring training baseball game at Bright House Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
With the Phillies 40-man now set, lets take a look at the decisions and how it affects the remainder of the offseason, the 2017 season, and beyond.
Friday was a big day for the Phillies future, believe it or not. Both good, and potentially bad.
The teams 40-man roster was at 32 before Fridays deadline. Once hopeful lefty reliever Elvis Aruajo was claimed by the Miami Marlins – putting the 40-man down to 31 – and then, everything happened.
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Starting pitcher David Buchanan (8-17, 5.01 ERA, in 35 career starts), and the Phils 25th highest rated prospect – reliever Jimmy Cordero (acquired in Ben Revere trade, 3.80 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 1.409 WHIP career in minors, steadily hit 100 MPH but never stayed healthy) – were both designated for assignment.
Top prospects Nick Williams (AAA), Andrew Knapp (AAA), Mark Appel (AAA before injury), Ben Lively (AAA), Nick Pivetta (AAA), Dylan Cozens (AA), Ricardo Pinto (AA), Alberto Tirado (A+), and Elniery Garcia (A+), were all added to the 40-man.
Big names such as Andrew Pullin, Malquin Canelo, Carlos Tocci, Jose Pujols, and Deivi Grullon amongst others, were left unprotected and are now eligible for the rule-5 draft. Check out who is and isn’t at risk of being selected in the rule-5 draft here.
Now, lets fully dive into the 40-man roster and everything that surrounds it:
October 17, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Howie Kendrick (47) during workouts before game three of the NLCS at Dodgers Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
If the season started today, what would the Phillies 25-man roster look like?
This is where things get interesting, and show a definite sign of more changes to come. The team maintained 40-man flexibility by keeping borderline players such as Cody Asche, Adam Morgan, Michael Mariot, Luis Garcia, Severino Gonzalez, and Phil Klein on the roster.
Those 6 spots could signal the changes. And after you look at how this 25-man roster (based off big league experience and health) currently stands, you’ll see why:
Rotation – Jeremy Hellickson, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher.
Bullpen – Hector Neris, Jeanmar Gomez, Edubray Ramos, Pat Neshek, Joely Rodriguez, Michael Mariot, Luis Garcia, Severino Gonzalez.
Catchers – Cameron Rupp, Jorge Alfaro.
Infielders – Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Cody Asche (let’s stick him here for now).
Outfielders – Odubel Herrera, Howie Kendrick, Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr, Tyler Goeddel.
This will not be the Phillies roster come opening day, no worries. It just goes to show how much more change is on the way.
Mar 13, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Nick Williams (79) at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The youngsters are on the rise to Philadelphia.
Let’s take a look at the remaining 15 players, where they stand, and when we should expect them to arrive to get a better idea of the changes to come:
Aaron Nola – (23, SP, rehabbing, locked in for MLB rotation if healthy)
Zach Eflin – (22, SP, rehabbing, competing for fifth MLB rotation spot if healthy)
Adam Morgan – (26, SP, competing for fifth MLB rotation spot)
Phil Klein – (27, SP, your guess is as good as mine, but likely cut bait)
Nick Williams – (22, OF, finished 2016 in AAA. Will have shot at MLB team in camp, but AAA start likely)
Mark Appel – (26, SP, started in AAA before injury. Likely to start in AAA, but could be converted into a reliever and rise to MLB quicker)
Andrew Knapp – (24, Catcher, finished 2016 in AAA. Likely to have best shot at MLB team in camp among top prospect)
Nick Pivetta – (23, SP, finished 2016 in AAA. Like Appel, Pivetta is likely to start in AAA but could be converted as well)
Ben Lively – (24, SP, finished 2016 in AAA. While Lively is unlikely to make the team out of camp, he’ll be first in line for the big league club in case of injury, trade, or struggles)
Jesmuel Valentin – (22, 2B, finished 2016 in AAA. Will have shot in camp, AAA start likely)
Dylan Cozens – (22, OF, finished 2016 in AA. Should be in camp. However, AAA is where he’ll be)
Ricardo Pinto – (22, SP, finished 2016 in AA. Could start in either AA or AAA, but MLB unlikely this season)
Drew Anderson – (22, RP, finished 2016 in high A. Live arm, will have shot in camp, AA or AAA if not on Phillies)
Alberto Tirado – (21, SP/RP, finished 2016 in high A. Electric stuff, will have shot in camp, AA start likely if he doesn’t stick in camp as reliever)
Elniery Garcia – (21, SP, finished 2016 in high A. One of just three left handed pitchers on 40-man, AA start likely)
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When you look at where all these guys currently stand in the organization, it’s pretty wild to think how far the organization has come. Almost every player on this list could see time in Philadelphia at some point (Cozens, Pinto, and Garcia being the current exceptions) in 2017.
However, is that the plan?
Aug 13, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco (7) points to the stands after hitting a three run home run during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Here’s one way of looking at the Phillies 40-man roster:
I’ve tried to breakdown the Phillies 40-man into five separate categories. Remember, this is just my opinion, but this is how I would personally look at things:
Again, this is just players on the 40-man. And again, this is me putting on my GM hat. But as I see things, Maikel Franco (arguably) has the clearest path to a long career in Philadelphia.
Who else other than Franco?
Well…
Jul 29, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez (28) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Players who have become or have had the chance to become regulars during the teams rebuild may soon be finding work elsewhere.
I know Herrera and Velasquez were subject to trade rumors, but with both being just 24-years-old and still having legitimate upside, I can’t see the team parting with them unless the return is very drastic.
Trading a reliever with upside (Ken Giles), is totally different from trading a potential ace and an already all-star center fielder.
The same goes for Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro in regards to trades. These are two of the finest prospects in baseball – and unless GM Matt Klentak totally shifts the course – they have a future set in front of themselves when they show they’re ready, and its going to be up to them to seize their eventual opportunities.
All the players I listed in “deserve opportunities to stick” could very well be moved to the trade candidates section. However, they’re all young (26 or younger), and all should have every opportunity to show (or continue to show) their future value to the team. While it wouldn’t sour my heart if they weren’t here, I’d bank on those players getting legitimate opportunities to be a part of this thing going forward.
You can see here, here, and here, for some reasons on why the team might want to trade players such as Hernandez, Rupp, and Neris.
The bubble players and other prospects listed are just that, bubble players and prospects. With however much high upside they may have, their futures are most definitely not set in stone, and have much more to prove to the organization.
I’m not saying I don’t see the bubble players and prospects having nice careers in Philadelphia, for some, I could. This is more so if the team felt the need to package prospects to get a star player via trade (unlikely at this time – but it’s not too far away either – especially with more prospects inching closer).
Just brace yourselves for changes people. In-house, trades, free agency, whatever. They’re coming.
Be sure to check out my 25-Man roster prediction later in the week right here on TBOH!
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