Mar 11, 2017; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox infielder Rafael Devers (74) throws to first base in the first inning of a spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at CenturyLink Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
With the season just around the corner, who are the top 10 third base prospects in MLB?
An Introduction
These lists will be coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our MLB contributors at Call To The Pen.
Ben reviewed each MLB organization's top 10 prospects in November and December, then also reviewed the top 125 prospects in the game in January. Throughout spring training, he's also been contributing scouting reports on players that are part of his top 25 prospects in the game.
Each slide will feature two players with a brief write up, then one final slide with a prospect who is not in the top 10, but very possibly could find his way into the top 5 with an impressive 2017 campaign due the player's high upside.
These rankings are based on dozens of conversations with multiple people around the game about different prospects, and certainly each list could be much longer, but for brevity, we'll stick to 10!
Let's get started with today's position group, the men who man the hot corner:
10. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Hayes is the son of former MLB third baseman Charlie Hayes, who played 14 MLB seasons for 7 different organizations, hitting .262/.316/.398 over his career.
Hayes was drafted in the first round by the Pirates in 2015, and they challenged Hayes with a promotion to full-season ball in his first full season.
He started his season on fire, hitting .343/.368/.457 in April, but he really struggled through May before starting to rebound in June before an injury ended his season. Originally thought to be something with his back, it came out this offseason that he actually had a rib fracture, so the injury should be nothing to worry about long-term.
Hayes is a big guy already at 6'1″, 210 pounds, and that listing could even be light for what he carries. He is really maxed out physically, so adding weight would come in the form of bad weight, so as long as he stays attentive to his conditioning, there's no reason he can't stay at third.
While Hayes is certainly a below-average runner, he has excellent feel for third base and tremendous hands that allow him to be a guy who could stick at the position long-term.
With his time at low-A being cut short in 2016, it will be something to watch to see if the Pirates move Hayes up to high-A this spring to open the year or have him open the year with low-A with an eye on a quick promotion as he shows well in a return to the level.
9. Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Riley had questions about his future position when he came out of high school, with a big arm on the mound and a feel for his secondary pitches that could translate to a career as a pitcher as well as raw power in the field.
The Braves drafted him in the supplemental first round, 41st overall, in the 2015 draft, and they chose to keep him as a hitter.
His 2015 season was impressive as he posted an OPS of .933 between two rookie league levels and flashed big-time power, though he also flashed big-time strikeout ability as well.
There were questions about his ability to handle third base, and the Braves worked hard with him on the defensive end in the spring. He showed some progress on that end to open the season, but the problem was that his bat then disappeared to open the year as he hit .246/.291/.372 through the first two months of the year, striking out 1/3 of the time.
Around Memorial Day, Riley made some notable adjustments to his hand placement on the bat and his placement in the batter's box. The results were notable as he was able to handle premium velocity and breaking stuff much better.
From June 1st through the end of the season, Riley looked the part of a legit power threat, hitting .285/.343/.542 with 25 doubles and 17 home runs, even drastically cutting his strikeout rate to 23.55%.
It was notable that Riley only had 13 plate appearances against pitchers younger than him in 2016, so he's been facing older competition all along and making adjustments at the plate.
The issue that came was that as his hitting improved, it seemed that Riley's defense backslid. He made 30 errors on the season at third base in 2016, and they seemed to pile up more and more as the year ran on, leaving legitimate concern to whether or not he could handle third base long-term.
If he does have to move, his excellent arm should allow for a transition to a corner outfield position, provided he keeps his big 6'3″ frame that has a listed 220 pounds on it right now, though it's probably closer to 235ish.
The Braves will open Riley at high-A in 2017.
8. Lucas Erceg, Milwaukee Brewers
After some academic issues caused Erceg to leave a bigger program to go to small Menlo College, there were questions about how to view his production in college.
The Brewers took the gamble on Erceg in the 2nd round of the 2016 draft, and they've been happy with that ever since.
Erceg looks the part at the plate, swinging from the left side, standing 6'3″ and 200 listed pounds, with a very pretty swing.
Erceg produced as well, hitting .327/.376/.518 over two levels with 9 home runs and 9 stolen bases.
Erceg has a big arm and athleticism that will play well at third or in a corner outfield if he needs to move off the position, and he should be a guy who can move up the system quickly.
Erceg will likely open with high-A in 2017, but it would not be surprising if he moves up another level with continued excellent performance.
7. Jeimer Candelario, Chicago Cubs
Candelario has been working his way up the Cubs system since signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2011. He was born in New York, but moved to the Dominican as a child.
He was regarded for his switch hitting bat that had present high contact skills when he was signed with a solid frame that many thought would lead to more power.
While over-the-fence power has never really developed, Candelario has developed into a hitter with excellent gap power and bat control along with solid third base defense.
In 2016, Candelario hit .283/.376/.464 between AA and AAA before making his major league debut during a September call up. He hit 39 doubles, 4 triples, and 13 home runs in the minor leagues in 2016 with a 12.66% walk rate and a 17.9% strikeout rate.
The problem for Candelario is that he's in the wrong organization, frankly. He's not a guy like Ian Happ or some of the other prospects coming up in the organization that could fit the positional flexibility model that Joe Maddon prefers in Chicago, being really restricted to corner infield as he doesn't have the speed to handle corner outfield spots.
The Cubs just happen to have two of the best in the National League at their respective corner infield positions in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, so Candelario will have a rough road to find his way to Chicago for playing time, making him more likely a prime trade candidate.
Candelario will likely open in AAA unless the Cubs find a way to use him in a blockbuster deal, likely for pitching that's controlled for significant time.
6. Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
When you're talking about a guy who has hit 59 home runs over 215 games in the last two seasons of minor league baseball, it's rare that the thing that puts him in contention for the top 5 at his position is actually his defense.
I'm not alone in thinking that Chapman has the best glove at third base in the entire minor leagues, with tremendous range and a great arm.
Chapman has light-tower power, and it's not just based on being in hitting leagues the last few years. While he's got a significant issue with strikeouts and contact, he also is willing to take a walk, and that level of power is absolutely elite.
With his glove, the path of Chapman should be fairly quick as the other third basemen in the Athletics system are primarily bat-first guys.
He's also a rare guy whose power could actually out-hit Oakland's cavernous home park, so there's plenty for A's fans to like here.
Chapman will likely open 2017 in AAA, but he could make a push early in the season for major league time.
5. Christian Arroyo, San Francisco Giants
A surprise first-round selection in the 2013 draft at 25th overall, Arroyo was a high school shortstop that was regarded as more of a 3rd round pick.
The Giants saw something in him and immediately saw returns when he slashed .326/.388/.511 in rookie ball his draft year. He played his way to full-season ball in 2014, continuing good contact skills, but seemingly seeing much of the rest of his offensive profile flatten out.
Arroyo had a solid hitting year in the Cal League in 2015 and really showed well in the Arizona Fall League after the season. In 2016, the Giants began the process of moving Arroyo from shortstop to third base as he hit in AA.
Arroyo is likely not to be a guy who clubs 20 home runs in his career, but he has good gap power, and many have compared his skillset positively to former Giant Matt Duffy, who was a shortstop by trade that moved to third base for the major league club.
In 2016, Arroyo hit .274/.316/.373 in AA with 36 doubles and 3 home runs. He's got smooth hands and a very good arm that work well at third, though he showed inexperience in his instincts in 2016, but that should come quickly as he's received a reputation as a hard worker.
Arroyo should open 2017 with the Giants' AAA affiliate, and he could see some major league time in 2017.
4. Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals
Seemingly continuing a theme after Arroyo, Dozier was also a surprising pick in the first round at #8 overall. While Dozier was considered a possible first round talent, he was not figured as a top-10 talent in the 2013 draft, however the Royals intended to use his selection to help them sign a later pick, which became pitcher Sean Manaea.
As a college pick, Dozier was expected to move quickly through the system, and he did move quickly to AA, spending half of the season there in 2014, his first full season.
However, Dozier stalled at AA, struggling in his first exposure in 2014 and also in a full season there in 2015.
In 2016, Dozier returned to AA to start the season, and he absolutely raked, slugging .642 to earn a promotion to AAA Omaha. All he did after his promotion was play well enough to be given the Omaha player of the year award.
After that excellent minor league season, Dozier made hiw way to the major leagues for a September call-up, and while he didn't exactly set the world on fire in that time, he showed that he was ready to be in a major league clubhouse, getting good marks from Royals people about how he handled a pennant race with the Royals fighting for a wild card.
Dozier has been played some in the outfield simply due to the presence of Mike Moustakas at third for the Royals currently, though Moustakas is a free agent after the 2017 season, so there could be an opening at the position if the Royals are unable to resign Moustakas.
3. Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds
Senzel was the #2 draft pick in the 2016 draft after an impressive season at Tennessee.
He was considered either the top or 2nd-best available college bat in the 2016 draft, and his previous ability at second base in college led to trust that any concerns about his third base defense would be smoothed quickly due to his athleticism.
Senzel's swing is such that he really looks to be more of a heavy doubles, 15-25 home run sort of guy, and the Reds aggressively moved his bat in 2016 to low-A Dayton, though he showed no issue with handling the quick jump.
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Senzel put up a .305/.398/.514 line on the 2016 minor league season with 24 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 home runs. He also stole 18 bases and posted a 13.01% walk rate and 18.49% strikeout rate.
His bat is certainly advanced, and there is every reason to think he could advance quickly to the minor leagues. His offensive skill set reminds me of another former college 3B, Anthony Rendon, who has become a solid hitter at the major league level, with a career slash line of .274/.345/.433 with a per-162 game average of 39 doubles and 18 home runs.
However, one name that was floated to me this fall when I was calling around about Reds prospects and talking about Senzel was Alex Gordon. Gordon was a guy who had all sorts of hype out of college, put together an incredible season in AA his first year out of college, and he was in the majors his second year after college, but he struggled to establish himself until moving to the outfield, and he's never quite been the superstar that many thought he would become.
Senzel should end up in the high minors in 2017, though he may open the season in high-A with a quick look toward AA once he shows well in high-A.
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Rated the #1 prospect by Baseball America in the 2015 July 2nd international free agent class, Guerrero signed for $3.9M.
While he had an impressive set of skills as an amateur, Vlad Junior stories became legendary last summer as the 17 year old held his own (and then some at times) in the advanced rookie Appalachian League, typically a league with high schoolers in their second year after being drafted or college players in their draft year.
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Listed at 6'1″ and 200 pounds, that weight is certainly low, and one scout told me this offseason that one look at Vlad Junior's butt would tell you that he's 225+!
The incredible part is that, while his dad was a freakish athlete, Junior is able to hold his own athletically and use high baseball smarts to play up the below-average speed that he possesses.
Vlad's calling card as he matures will certainly be his power, and unlike his father, he really shows advanced strike zone recognition. In 62 games in 2016, he hit .271/.359/.449 with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 8 home runs, 15 stolen bases, a 11.96% walk rate, and a 12.68% strikeout rate.
He'll very likely spend his year in a full-season league this year, which is incredible to consider as he just turned 18 this month. He may eventually outgrow 3B, but the upside here is incredible.
1. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Devers has been followed since being the jewel of the Red Sox's 2013 international free agent signing class, bringing in a $1.5M bonus.
Devers was considered an advanced left-handed bat, and in his first professional year, he hit .322/.404/.506 across two rookie league levels.
The Red Sox felt comfortable pushing him all the way to full-season ball in 2015, and he held his own as an 18 year-old, hitting .288/.329/.443 with 38 doubles and 11 home runs.
At the start of this season, you'd think the Red Sox may have a dud in Devers. One week ahead of Memorial Day he was hitting .180/.268/.293 with just 10 extra base hits in 168 plate appearances for high-A Salem.
From that day forward, Devers was tremendous, hitting .326/.365/.507 with 26 doubles, 7 triples, and 8 home runs. The impressive part is that he had the moxie to have this turn around at just 19 years old.
The big question on Devers coming into 2016 was his defense. Many who had scouting Devers in 2014-2015 had worries that he may need to move across the diamond to first base.
Instead, Devers showed excellent instincts and range at third on the season, though his added range allowed him to get to more balls, leading to more errors than the previous season, but in watching him, he was a much better defender, along the lines of a borderline plus defender on the season.
Devers very likely will be at AA in 2017 at age 20, and it's very feasible that he could make a bid for the 3B job in Boston in 2019 when Hanley Ramirez could be gone and Pablo Sandoval may move to 1B or DH at that point.
Joshua Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Lowe came into draft season with a dual profile as a power pitcher from the right hand side that didn't really have feel for a third pitch but had a power fastball/breaking ball combo, or a third baseman with a lot of juice in his bat.
Lowe has some definite swing and miss to his offensive game, but he is an elite athlete overall, grading out as a plus runner to go with his elite arm and raw power.
Lowe had a solid pro debut, playing in two rookie levels, hitting .249/.374/.405 with 5 home runs.
Lowe has a 6'4″ frame that is currently lean, but he has the wide shoulders and hips that could support more muscle on his frame without losing the high-end athleticism that made him the Rays 1st round selection in the 2016 draft at 13th overall.
Lowe could open in full-season ball in 2017, which would be an impressive challenge to his athleticism.
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