MLB: Top five American League Rookie of the Year candidates
Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
There is a month left in the MLB season, and the American League Rookie of the Year race is coming down to the season’s final month.
At this time last season there was a spirited discussion about who was more deserving of the American League Rookie of the Year Award. The Houston Astros had Carlos Correa, who put up dazzling numbers to go with his impeccable fashion sense. The Cleveland Indians countered with Francisco Lindor, who was a defensive virtuoso and put up a 126 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) for good measure.
Correa ended up winning the award. He earned it, but Lindor had just as strong of a case. That’s why Correa beat Lindor by just 15 points once the voting ballots were tallied. It was clearly a two-horse race, as the third place finisher, Minnesota Twins designated hitter Miguel Sano, was 89 points behind Lindor.
The AL has a long string of formidable Rookie of the Year winners. The last player to win the award and then bust was Bobby Crosby, the 2004 winner from the Oakland Athletics. He hit 22 home runs that season but never again hit more than 10 in a season. He played in more than 100 games just once after 2004.
In between Crosby and Correa, the AL ROYs all turned out to be salty ball players. In order, they are: Huston Street, Justin Verlander, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, Andrew Bailey, Neftali Feliz, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Trout, Wil Myers and Jose Abreu. Correa looks like he’s going to continue the streak.
This season, there aren’t any clear leaders but rather a collection of players who are productive but lack the lustrous patina of Correa or Lindor. That doesn’t mean there isn’t any future All-Stars among the group, just no prodigies.
(All stats entering play Tuesday.)
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Michael Fulmer, pitcher, Detroit Tigers
Fulmer is in the midst of a great rookie season. He is sixth overall among pitchers in Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement with 4.8 – only Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Cole Hamels and teammate Verlander are better. He has a 2.77 earned run average, 3.79 fielding independent pitching, 150 ERA+ and 3.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, quality numbers all. There’s an argument he’s worthy of Cy Young Cy Young consideration.
Among AL rookies, he leads the pack in Fan Graphs WAR (his 2.5 fWAR is 21st overall), bWAR, ERA and is second in FIP. The numbers don’t sparkle quite the same, but Fulmer resembles New York Mets phenom Noah Syndergaard in some interesting ways.
Fulmer’s impressive season got tethered to a looming innings limit in the middle of the season. That limit may come in to play if the Tigers stick around in the playoff hunt. And considering they are creeping in on the Indians, the Tigers may face a difficult decision in the coming weeks. The team has skipped multiple of Fulmer’s turns in the rotation in order to keep his innings down, which means the Tigers might have avoided a Stephen Strasburg of 2012 debacle.
Fulmer is the closest thing to a leading candidate in this race. He leads AL rookies in innings pitched, so he’s had an impressive season, not just an impressive two or three months. Strong performance over a full season should trump three strong months.
Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Tyler Naquin, outfielder, Cleveland Indians
The Indians missed out on a ROY winner last season but they have another quality candidate in 2016. Offensively, Naquin is arguably the best candidate. His .303/.363/.562/142 wRC+ line puts him at the top or near the top of every significant offensive category among AL rookies. Only New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez has a higher wRC+ among rookies with 100 plate appearances, but Naquin has more than double the playing time.
Naquin is putting up these impressive numbers despite the third highest strikeout rate (31.6%) among qualified rookies. The majors’ highest batting average on balls in play (.416) among hitters with at least 250 PAs certainly helps.
From a player value standpoint, Naquin’s stance among the AL’s best becomes more precarious. He is second to Gary Sanchez in fWAR (2.3 to 2.1), but is ninth in bWAR (0.7), mostly due to poor defensive play: he has negative-17 defensive runs saved according to FanGraphs. That’s one of the five worst among major league center fielders.
Naquin disappeared from the award watch radar during his brutal August in which he had a 56 adjusted on-base plus slugging (OPS+). He started to turn things around over the past week, so a strong September can bring him back into the mix.
Naquin is a role player on a very good team. While that should have no effect on his eligibility as a ROY candidate, he has the benefit of playing on a deep team and with one of the game’s best pitching staffs, both of which have been able to overcome his negative contributions.
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Blake Snell, pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
Snell is a promising young pitcher on a mediocre pitching staff that pitches for a bad team. He has a 3.39 ERA, 3.42 FIP and 120 ERA+, all of which point to him being an above-average pitcher both now and in the future. His 1.5 fWAR is third among all AL rookie pitchers but he falls precipitously in bWAR – more on that later.
Snell is a great candidate by most measures, but much of the damage to his ROY candidacy is self-inflicted. His astronomically high 5.1 walks per nine innings undercuts his strikeout arsenal and drags his K/BB down to 1.88. He is second among AL rookie starters in K/9 (9.57) and is first in FIP, but he would be even better is he didn’t walk so many batters.
Snell debuted in April, was sent to the minors for a month and a half and has pitched regularly in the majors since mid-June. He won’t end up with nearly as many innings pitched as Fulmer, but the difference won’t be enough to disqualify Snell from consideration. And even if he doesn’t win, he still gave Rays fans a glimpse of what could be a promising future. As a potential No. 2 starter he and Chris Archer could form a formidable 1-2 punch, assuming Archer isn’t traded.
Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
There are several candidates from this pool, which features an assortment of players from Chris Devenski of the Houston Astros to Edwin Diaz of the Seattle Mariners to Mychal Givens of the Baltimore Orioles. And that list wasn’t exhaustive. Remember how I mentioned Snell’s ranking fell in bWAR? Well, most of the pitchers who jumped him were relievers.
The two best candidates are Diaz and Devenski. Each has spent at least half the season in the majors and each is consistently among the league leaders in key statistical categories.
We’ll start with Devenski. His 2.2 fWAR is second among AL rookies with at least 30 innings pitched. Among relievers, he leads AL rookies in ERA (1.51) and is second in FIP (2.45) and K/BB (5.82). In terms of FanGraphs’ Win Probability Added, Devenski is third among AL rookies at 1.32. (Note: Devenski has started five games this season, so his performance in those games doesn’t factor in to the aforementioned statistics.)
Diaz matches Devenski punch for punch. Among AL rookies he is first in FIP (2.28), second in WPA (1.51), fourth in K/BB (4.67) and fWAR (1.2) and seventh in ERA (2.54).
Beyond those two, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy, Givens, the Rangers’ Matt Bush, the Oakland Athletics’ Ryan Dull and a host of other arms are worthy of consideration. Relievers are more valuable now than at any point in the game’s history, so it’s no surprise they’re garnering serious consideration.
Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Gary Sanchez, catcher, New York Yankees; Alex Bregman, infielder, Houston Astros
These two are the Yoenis Cespedes candidates because considering them for AL Rookie of the Year is similar to last season’s homilies that Cespedes was worthy of NL MVP consideration. Those arguments were based on the bloodbath he left in his wake after being traded to the New York Mets at the trade deadline. Cespedes only spent two months in the NL, and likewise, Sanchez and Bregman will only spend around two months in the majors.
Sanchez exploded onto the scene in August. From August 3-27 he hit .421/.488/.947 with 11 home runs and made history. Teammates said opposing pitchers should walk him to get to Babe Ruth. Is there higher praise for a baseball player than that?
Since that incredible stretch he’s come back to earth. He is hitting .226/.333/.290 with 11 strikeouts in his last 36 plate appearances.
Cumulatively, Sanchez has been very valuable. His 204 wRC+ and 200 OPS+ point to just how good he was during that stretch of games. He’s played barely a month and he leads AL rookies in fWAR and wRC+ and is second in bWAR. Plus, he’s been solid defensively, throwing out 45 percent of stolen base attempts and saving 2.8 runs through pitch framing.
Bregman has gotten better as the season has progressed. He had a .119 OPS through his first eight games, a .711 OPS through the next 11 and since August 16 has a 1.113 OPS. The latest stretch and his cumulative .266/.324/.475 line make you wonder where he would be if the Astros had called him up earlier.
Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Max Kepler, outfielder, Minnesota Twins; Tim Anderson, shortstop, Chicago White Sox; Nomar Mazara, outfielder, Texas Rangers.
These three are first, third and fourth in plate appearances among AL rookies, but none of them stand out as ROY front-runners. None has more than 2.0 fWAR and none has a wRC+ higher than 105.
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Kepler struggled through the season’s first month but was productive during June and July. He had an OPS higher than .770 in both months and hit 11 home runs, including eight in July, in which he had an .898 OPS. Unfortunately, August looked a lot like April: he’s slashed .207/.272/.279 since August 5.
Mazara was scalding the ball early. He homered in his first major league game and had an .861 OPS through June 11. He’s had a .650 OPS since then.
Anderson’s season is a roller coaster. He slashed .308/.314/.519 through July 4; struggled to a .216/.224/.268 slash line from July 5 to August 3; now he’s white hot again, slashing .330/.362/.495 since August 4.
Interestingly, Anderson stands out defensively among these three. While he was in the minors there were doubts he would be able to play a big league shortstop, but according to FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Saved, he has saved the White Sox five runs, fourth among AL shortstops who have played at least 50 innings. Kepler has saved two runs for the Twins while Mazara has cost the Rangers seven runs.
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