MLB: National League's Most and Least Deserving of Each Key Award
With the MLB playoffs starting, it is a good time to predict the regular season awards, along with opposites of each award for least valuable player, manager, etc. We will start with a focus on the National League.
With the Cubs dominating the NL all season long, it can be assumed they will dominate the voting boxes similar to last season. While this could be true with superstars like Kris Bryant and Jon Lester hoping to take home an award, each player has a lot of competition for their respective MLB awards.
The MVP, Cy Young, Rookie, Manager, and Reliever awards are the basics. Also included are an opposite award for each. The Juan Castro award is for least valuable player, as the former infielder somehow played 17 years with a .229/.268/.327 slash.
The Jose Lima award is for the least valuable pitcher, as even with two good seasons, the righty pitched to a 5.26 ERA over 15 seasons.
Though eventually finding moderate success, Cristian Guzman was atrocious in his rookie season with a .226/.267/.276 slash, while getting caught stealing seven times with only nine successes. Due to that 1999 season, he gets the name of the worst rookie.
Manager was tough, but I gave the honor to Buddy Bell. The former player got three separate opportunities to manage and had a losing record with all three teams. Not a greatly successful managerial career.
Lastly, the worst reliever award was given to a man named Lewis. Yep, just Lewis. A pitcher for the Buffalo Bisons in 1890, stats show he only played in one game, giving up 20 runs in three innings. No one on this list was that bad, but maybe there is a reason Lewis changed his name and hid immediately after. (Just kidding that’s not what happened–at least I don’t think that’s what happened).
Format
I formatted this award after the baseball writers do theirs. Top ten for MVP, five for Cy Young, three for anything else. Without further adieu, let’s see who is worthy of the top awards in baseball, along with the even more prestigious worst awards.
*All stats courtesy of Fangraphs
NL MVP
The MVP race in the NL is an obvious choice, as Kris Bryant was the total package in the 2016 regular season. The second year player eclipsed 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), while hitting 39 home runs and achieving a 149 wRC+. The last National League players to do this were Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols back in 2009.
Corey Seager has been spectacular at short, while Murphy has surprisingly been possibly the best hitter in the NL. Arenado’s terrific fielding puts him in the four spot, and Anthony Rizzo’s all-around game puts him in the top five. If this was purely an award for hitting, Murphy could find himself first, and Seager could have fallen out of the top five entirely.
Votto, Segura, Turner, and Freeman have used huge second halves to put themselves on my ballot, and Yoenis Cespedes’ first half power got himself tenth. Look for Freeman to have a huge year for the Braves next year when their younger players improve and they move into a new ballpark. Votto has scuffled in the field, but has put together all-worldly offensive numbers since mid-May (.370/.469/.623 since May 24)
Juan Castro Award
Parra’s big free agent contract looked questionable at best over the winter, and looks even worse now. His .253/.271/.399 is bad, and gets even worse when accounting for his home field advantage of Coors Field. Alexei Ramirez seems to be done as an MLB player, after fizzling out with the Padres with an ugly .605 OPS and -21 DRS. Derek Norris was below the Mendoza line, with an atrocious hitting year, though his steady catcher helps his case a bit.
NL Cy Young
To be clear, this has nothing to do with the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, and is only focused on the baseball aspect. Fernandez joined Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez as the only starting pitchers in history to have a K/9 over 12, with a sub 3.00 ERA. Johnson did it a freaky four times, while Martinez only did it once. Johnson won the Cy Young in three of those four seasons, and Martinez won it in his lone year. Fernandez’s Fielding Independent Pitching score of 2.30 was just one point behind Noah Syndergaard for the MLB lead.
Scherzer had another terrific year with an impressive 34 starts. Lester was great all year, and especially stellar in the second half. ERA king Kyle Hendricks looked Greg Maddux-esque, but one has to wonder how much the Cubs top rated defense had to do with his good numbers. Of all qualified pitchers with an ERA below 3.50 (26 of them), only Lester and Hendricks had a difference between their FIP and ERA of .97 of greater. Syndergaard rounds out the list as he led the MLB in FIP, but is in the awkward position behind both Lester and Hendricks in ERA, and behind both Fernandez and Scherzer in K/9.
Jose Lima Minus Two Good Years Award
Simon was atrocious in 2016, giving up more than a run per inning in his 58 ⅔ frames. Simon became the first pitcher since Roy Halladay, TOR, and Sean Bergman, MIN, in 2000 to throw more than 50 innings with an ERA north of nine. Simon won’t rebound like Halladay and become a Cy Young award winner, but he could end up like Bergman, who never saw the big leagues again. If I do this award list next season I will be sure to name it after Simon.
Miller’s struggles were well documented, and if he cannot improve in 2017, the trade that the Diamondbacks made to acquire him could go down as one of the worst of all time depending on the promising futures of Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte in Atlanta. It is nearly impossible to find optimism with Miller as his BB/9 climbed up, and his K/9 fell. If anything, his FIP of 4.87 being much smaller than his ERA of 6.15 can be a sign of good things to come, though his league-high WHIP of 1.67 (min 100 innings) disagree.
I am still mystified as to how Jackson continues to get MLB jobs as a starter, but hey, more power to him and his 5.65 ERA as a starter over the last four years.
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
NL Rookie of the Year
Seager takes home this award easily as his 7.5 WAR was fifth in all of baseball amongst position players. The last rookie to do this was Mike Trout in 2012 when he incredibly led all of baseball by a 2.6 WAR margin.
Turner gets the second spot rather easily, even though he has only played in 73 games.
His incredible slashline of .342/.370/.567 with 33 steals and 13 home runs could have garnered him serious MVP consideration if maintained over a full season (about 80 steals and 36 long balls).
The third spot in the rookie race is wide open, not that it matters. Gray takes it for me, as his ERA does not dazzle, but the rest of his game is impressive. He also added a 16 strikeout performance towards the end of the year at Coors, a feat that had never been accomplished. His 3.60 FIP and 9.9 K/9 are eerily similar to those of AL Cy Young hopeful Justin Verlander (3.48 FIP, 10.0 K/9). With 168 strong innings in 2016, Rockies fans can finally be excited about a pitching prospect.
Cristian Guzman Award
Before we start with this, let me just note that a bad rookie season does not decide a player’s future by any means. Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson slashed an awful .232/.281/.313 over his first 700 career PA with only six home runs. That being said, Tyler Goeddel got 234 plate appearances for Philadelphia, but no one can be too sure why. With only 10 XBH and a .192 AVG, there was never any signs of productivity for the young outfielder.
Ramon Flores got 294 PA with Milwaukee and amassed a .555 OPS with more double plays hit into than XBH (11 to 10).
Aaron Blair was supposed to emerge as a part of the Braves future rotation, but instead pitched to a 7.59 ERA over 70 innings while seeing a miniscule 1.5 difference between his BB/9 and K/9.
NL Manager of the Year
Maddon’s use of the Cubs versatile players earn him his third Manager of the Year award. Sure there was a lot of established talent on his team, but nearly everyone had a career year with the exceptions of Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist.
Terry Collins managed a team riddled with injuries, and somehow led them to a Wild Card berth. The team has continuously outplayed their talent level, and part of that should be a credit to Collins.
In his first year as a manager, Roberts had to deal with a team that broke the MLB record for disabled list visits. Even with superstar Clayton Kershaw injured for a couple of months, the team easily won the division with the Giants falling apart in the second half.
The Buddy Bell Award
Hale was fired this Monday, and rightfully so. His team included a talent pool of Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke surrounded by Jean Segura, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and Robbie Ray amongst others. Though budding star A.J. Pollock missed most of the year, the team still should have remained competitive.
Matheny dealt with a variety of injuries, but also saw many players see a decrease in production. Jhonny Peralta, Jaime Garcia, Kolten Wong, Trevor Rosenthal, and Matt Holliday all saw dips in production in 2016, hurting the Cardinals playoff chances all season.
As a former pitching coach, Price should be doing a better job with Cincinnati’s young hurlers. Instead, the majority of the team’s pitching prospects floundered in their first big league action.
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Trevor Hoffman Rolaids Relievers Award
With a 3.2 WAR to lead all MLB relievers, Jansen’s 13.63 K/9 coupled with a 1.44 BB/9 led the strong righty to a 1.83 ERA and 47 saves. Only seven bullpen pitchers had a higher K/9, but out of the seven, only Andrew Miller also had a better BB/9.
Seung Hwan Oh led all NL relief pitchers with 2.19 win probability added. With an impressive 76 appearances and 79 ⅔ innings, Oh achieved a sub 1.00 WHIP and sub 2.00 ERA for the entire season.
Mark Melancon continued his consistent excellent work at the back of the pen for the Pirates and then Nationals in 2016. Melancon’s 297 games since 2013 out of the bullpen are second only to Bryan Shaw, and his 290 innings are second only to former teammate Tony Watson. With a 1.80 ERA over the past four years, Melancon is the only pitcher in all of baseball to pitch more than 242 innings with a sub 2.00 ERA.
Lewis Award
Similar to E-Jax, it is not clear how Carlos Villanueva continues to get MLB work. I am convinced they created a secret formula while pitching together in the Cubs bullpen back in 2014. The Dominican righty actually did have a solid year in St. Louis in 2015, but there was no reason for him to continue taking innings from Padres youngsters with his 5.96 ERA in 2016.
Former starter Tony Cingrani struggled throughout the year as a part-time closer, and it seems 2017 could be his last shot at remaining in the team’s plans. Teammate Josh Smith was equally bad, with a 5.29 FIP in 32 games.
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