Major League Baseball

MLB Hitters Have Chance to Break 15-Year Old Home Run Record

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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MLB players have hit 5,068 home runs this season, which is already 8th most of all time. Will they break the record set in 2000?

The year 2000 was the peak of the steroid era. The funny thing is, the MLB leader in homers that season was Sammy Sosa with only 50. Yet, that year, the league-wide single season home run record was broken as 5,692 home runs were hit. This was right after Mark McGwire’s hit 70 and 65 and right before Barry Bonds’ hit 73. Still, the league hit more dingers that year than any other.

Behind Sosa were sluggers like Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Troy Glaus, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jason Giambi. While not all were (or have been proven to be) on steroids, they were all mainstays in the MLB during that time. If you like home runs, this was the era for you. But what about now?

The current MLB players are on pace to hit 5,686 home runs this season. That is only six behind the record. With the pace Brian Dozier is going at, he can probably catch up to the record on his own!

All kidding aside, this year’s crop of talent has a decent chance at breaking the 15-year old record. And more impressively, all without steroids (as far as we know).

Since the home run explosion of the 90’s, the MLB has been on a slight decline in long balls. 2014 was the low point, but then the number skyrocketed back up to almost 5,000 last year. Along with total home runs, players with 30+ home runs followed the same trends. This time, even more dramatically. In 2014, only 11 players hit 30 or more round trippers. This year, 25 players have already reached that mark.

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When taking into account the players close to 30 (4 w/29, 3 w/28, 6 w/27, 4 w/26, 3 w/25, 9 w/24), the 2014 figure could easily be tripled. In a span of three years, power numbers have exploded again. How does this happen?

Are hitters juicing again? While there is no way to know for sure, it seems that the MLB has caught up with modern technology and has modern ways of testing for performance enhancing products.

It could be that pitchers are throwing harder. Each team now has at least one guy in the bullpen capable of throwing at 95 on a regular basis. If a batter is able to square up a harder pitch, it will fly a long way if hit in the air. It’s just basic physics.

It could be that hitters are stronger. With the growing emphasis on weight training, players are bigger than ever. As Bleacher Report chronicled, athletes are much bigger than they used to be. With this greater strength, the HR/FB (flyball) ratio is 13.0% this year. Meaning, out of 100 fly balls, 13 are home runs. From 2002-2015, it was never greater than 11.5%.

Most likely out of all possibilities is that the home run increase is due to a variety of factors. Hitters are better and bigger, pitchers are throwing harder, and coaches are putting more emphasis on the long ball. And who knows what some players are doing behind the scenes to give themselves an edge.

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