MLB Free Agency: Why Edinson Volquez Is the Best Buy-Low Option
Starting pitching is certainly not a strength of this year’s MLB free agent class, but out of a group of uninspiring options, Edinson Volquez is the pitcher best positioned for a turnaround.
Every offseason, MLB teams look for players that could outperform their contract value and this year is no exception. Some of the best bargains come from the starting pitching market. But who’s going to be this year’s J.A. Happ from two years ago or Rich Hill from last winter (minus the blisters)?
What makes for a turnaround can be hard to determine. A good fit means a lot, but a pitcher needs to have the stuff in order come back from a down contract year. There are many candidates for this so-called low-risk, high-reward type pitcher this offseason. Charlie Morton who just inked a two-year deal with the Houston Astros, has been proclaimed by many as a fairly good value signing. Andrew Cashner has always had the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy and he only got a one-year deal from the Texas Rangers. What about Derek Holland or Jake Peavy? Both have track records that are much better than their 2016 performance. You can make a case for all of these hurlers, but the pitcher I would put my money on to turn it around next season is Edinson Volquez.
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Volquez, 33, will be going into his 13th season in the major leagues. He’s had a very solid career up to this point. He’s produced a combined 4.44 ERA since 2005. Starting out his career with the Cincinnati Reds, his early years were marred by inconsistency. Volquez showed the potential to be a front of the rotation pitcher at times, but also produced numbers that indicated that he really shouldn’t be in a starting rotation at all.
Some of his more recent campaigns have been his best. His most productive season came in 2014 when he pitched to a 3.04 ERA with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He followed up those numbers by throwing for a 3.55 ERA and a FIP of 3.85, which was actually better than what he put up in 2014.
However, this past year was undoubtedly one of his worst. The Royals were relying on Volquez to bring some steadiness to a shaky Royals rotation, but he did not come close to providing that. He finished the year with an ERA above 5.30 and allowed 3.6 walks per nine innings. His strikeout rate decreased from the year before as well (7.0 K/9 to 6.5 K/9). He also allowed over one home run per nine innings, which hadn’t happened since 2011. The one saving grace was that Volquez’s FIP of 4.57 was significantly lower than his ERA, even though it’s still nothing to write home about.
So why would the 33-year-old right-hander be an appealing low-risk, high reward free agent option? Well, one has to look deeper than at just the sheer numbers. Usually, bargain bin starting pitchers have a rather low ceiling, but that is not the case with Volquez. His career strikeout rate of 7.7 K/9 is very encouraging as it shows he has the ability to dominate hitters at times.
Also, his pure stuff has not declined that much from when he was in his prime. According to FanGraphs, Volquez still averaged above 93 mph on his fastball and his soft contact numbers were actually higher than the two seasons prior, when he was a legitimate middle-upper rotation starter. His ground ball percentage also increased from around 46 percent in 2015 to just over 51 percent this past year.
All of this indicated that Volquez was a much better pitcher than what his pure ERA showed at the end of 2016. The main issue for the 33-year-old was that his walks increased and his K rate decreased, which almost certainly will cause a dip in production. Still, there are encouraging signs that Volquez could give a team some solid production for the value of the contract that he is going to get on the open market.
He will most assuredly be looking for a one-year “prove it” deal that will probably be in the $10 million range that Andrew Cashner settled on with the Texas Rangers. Volquez is fairly similar to Cashner as they have flashed being a dominant starting pitcher because of their pure stuff, but have just been tough to figure out throughout their respective careers.
But Volquez will be coming into 2017 with something to prove and he has the stuff and some of the peripherals to signal that he could do so. The free agent starting pitching market is lacking and a team looking for a spark in their pitching staff would be wise to take a chance on the former Red, Padre, Pirate and Royal.
What do you think of Volquez’s chances to return to form next season? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.
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