The Miami Marlins have been players in free agency this winter, reportedly making a big offer to Kenley Jansen, then settling on Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa to bolster then bullpen. Their one big hole at the moment seems to be their rotation, and there are arms on the market that represent upgrades for them–like Jason Hammel.
The Miami Marlins have the look of a team that will be attempting to make a postseason run in 2017. Whether you believe that they have enough parts is in the eye of the beholder. A.J. Ramos is a solid closer, locking down 40 games last season while boasting a 2.81 ERA and a 10.27 K/9 rate. He tends to lose the strike zone a bit as his 4.92 BB/9 rate can attest, but the addition of Ziegler should help to solidify the latter innings one way or another. Add in the impressive (if not astounding) strikeout rate of Kyle Barraclough at 14.00 per nine, and there are no fewer than three reliable late inning arms for the Fish.
The Marlins have done a good job of shortening games this winter, and could be looking to emulate the Royals path to the World Series by having an alright starting rotation bolstered by a solid bullpen. Oh, and they signed former Royal Edinson Volquez to start games for them. Along with Volquez, who Miami is hoping will bounce back from his 10-11, 5.37 ERA performance from a year ago, the Marlins will have a rotation with Adam Conley (3.85), Tom Koehler (4.33), Wei-Yin Chen 4.96), and either Jeff Locke (5.44), Jose Urena (6.13) or Justin Nicolino (4.99). There is some upside here, but all it takes is one to falter or not rebound for the whole ship to sink.
There are reports out there that teams have been unwilling to give free agent starter Jason Hammel more than a one year deal. The Chicago Cubs, Hammel’s most recent employer, declined his $12M option this winter, letting him hit the market. At 34, scouts believe that Hammel’s stuff is declining after he was left off the Cubs postseason roster, according to John Perrotto of FanRag Sports. The market is down on Hammel, who only saw his ERA go from 3.74 to 3.83 from 2015 to 2016, but his FIP indicated that the defense behind him was bailing him out a bit more as it rose from 3.68 to 4.48.
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On the bright side for Hammel, he was still worth a 1.5 fWAR, which in terms of market value would amount to roughly $12M for one season. The obvious downside of that is the belief that his stuff isn’t as good and that that fWAR figure could continue to go down. Both his FIP and fWAR indicate that Hammel may be slightly below the average big league pitcher at this point in his career (2.0 WAR being an average Major Leaguer).
With all that said, Hammel could still provide value to a team like the Marlins. While they have options to fill that fifth starter role, adding a veteran like Hammel to the rotation would take some of the pressure off of the younger guys and bump some of the other average pitchers down a spot in the rotation.
Hammel could be penciled in for roughly 170 innings a season and could be had at a fairly reasonable price point. If not the $12M that he should be worth on the market, then somewhere in the $9-11M range. The Marlins could offer him a two year deal worth $20M to add some stability to their rotation and to give Hammel a little piece of mind to put themselves ahead of the pack. There figures to be some competition for Hammel’s services from teams like the Rangers, Yankees, Angels and Mariners who could all use some depth in their rotations, but the American League is also known for scoring, therefore allowing, more runs. Pitching in the AL East doesn’t sound like it’s going to be any fun in 2017, and having to face the Astros 19 times isn’t going to be a day on the beach either.
A National League team that resides in the NL East where three of the bottom six teams in runs scored last season reside (Miami is in the bottom six as well) is an intriguing option to consider, even if Hammel isn’t quite the same pitcher that he once was.
