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KC Royals: 5 Reasons KC WILL Make The 2016 Playoffs

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (left) has champagne dumped on his head as he holds the American League championship trophy in the clubhouse after defeating the Toronto Blue Jays in game six of the ALCS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The KC Royals have thrilled their fans by forcing their way back into the American League playoff picture. Their post-season chances have gone from remote to significant in the last three weeks in which they’ve reeled off 18 wins in 22 games. I now believe they will make the playoffs.

Yes, I’ve become a full-fledged believer. I’ve guzzled down the Kool-Aid and I’m All In on the belief that the Kansas City Royals will play in the post-season for their third consecutive season. That would be the first time since 1976-79 that the KC Royals have pulled off the feat.

The hope that the Royals will seize their second World Series title hangs on the fuzzy edge of my daydreams.

Have I gone insane? Am I just in full fan-boy mode? Would I be wise to lock up my bank accounts and avoid sports betting venues? Probably. But, I’d like to think that my burgeoning belief is based on at least a modicum of rational analysis.

Of course, man is a rationalizing animal capable of producing a myriad of factual reasons to justify decisions based on emotion or gut instinct. Those of us who like to think we are reason-driven individuals are even more prone to such ex-post facto rationalizations.

So, I’m going to list my reasons and I’ll let my readers decide. Am I rational? Or have I lost myself in the joy of watching the KC Royals latest winning streak?

Aug 29, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) asks for time after stealing third base against the New York Yankees in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

5. The Royals Are Once Again Forcing The Action On The Basepaths

Sunday night in Boston, Lorenzo Cain scored from first on a single. While he pulled that same trick twice in the 2015 playoffs, we’ve rarely seen it this season. Raul Mondesi Jr. also scored a run by beating out a fielder’s choice at home plate. His speed played a big role in that Cheslor Cuthbert‘s tapper only dribbled about a dozen feet from home plate.

Then on Monday night, the KC Royals stole two bases in the first inning and got caught stealing once. That’s three steal attempts in the opening frame. 

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In short, the Kansas City Royals are once again forcing the action with aggressive base-running after looking passive for much of the season.

The numbers do show a significant increase. The KC Royals stole 14 bases in July. Although that total was 11th in MLB, it was a far cry from Milwaukee’s 38 thefts in the same month. In August, the Royals have swiped 20 bases, with two more games to play in the month.

Of course, running the bases is about more than stolen bases. Going from first to third, taking the extra base, and pushing runs across the plate are just as important as steals. In August, the KC Royals have ramped up every aspect of their running game.

Part of the reason is inserting Raul Mondesi Jr. at second base in favor of Whit Merrifield. Though not exactly slow himself, Merrifield simply doesn’t possess Mondesi’s raw speed. Also, Mondesi’s weak bat and outstanding bunting skills have led him to put down the ball far more often than Merrifield.

Not All About Mondesi

However, it’s not just about Mondesi. Lorenzo Cain’s return to full-time duty has also helped. Outstanding pitching has also played a role. The Kansas City Royals’ outstanding 2.56 team ERA in August has allowed them to play from ahead most games. As a result, the Royals have unleashed their running because giving away a free out isn’t such a disaster as when you’re facing a large deficit.

Note that KC Royals pitchers posted a horrendous 5.27 ERA in July. The freedom to attack has brought back Royals Baseball in August.

Jul 27, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Wade Davis (17) checks a runner at first base in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 7-5. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

4. Wade Davis Is Poised To Return

Wade Davis pitched at AAA Omaha on Monday, suggesting that his return to Kansas City won’t come for at least a few more days. However, he’s on the mend and should return to the KC Royals soon. The front office will likely hold off on bringing him back until after September 1 just to avoid sending someone down just before rosters expand. When you option a player to the minors, you have to wait 10 days before recalling him unless the team suffers an injury.

Davis will return to a bullpen that is just dominating opponents in August. Even after the bullpen give up four runs to the Yankees Monday night, they still have held opponents to a 1.59 ERA for the month.

That’s insane.

So, on one hand, you could say the KC Royals don’t really need Wade Davis. But, that’s getting way too caught up in numbers. Davis has been historically dominant the last three seasons. Getting that guy back can’t hurt.

Return Of The Three-Headed Monster

Indeed, Davis’ return just might revive the famous Three-Headed Monster approach that has carried the Kansas City Royals to two straight AL pennants. With Wade Davis back in the closer role, Kelvin Herrera can move back to set-up, and rookie Matt Strahm is then the favorite to become the seventh inning guy.

Joakim Soria then becomes the staff “fireman”. Middle-relievers Peter Moyan and Brian Flynn become the righty and lefty match-up options out of the pen, with Chris Young and Chien-Ming Wang in long-relief.

Shut down those games!

Aug 29, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) drives in a run with a single against the New York Yankees in the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won 8-5. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

3. The Keep The Line Moving Offense Is Back

In the last two days, the Kansas City Royals have scored eight runs in an inning, three runs in an inning, and five runs in an inning. The long hit barrage rallies are back for the KC Royals, after going AWOL for most of the 2016 season.

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A big part of the problem has been injuries. With Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon missing close to a month apiece, and spotty effectiveness out of the second base position, the KC Royals just haven’t had enough solid bats in the lineup to string together a lot of hits in an inning.

That’s changed in August. Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon have both been hot this month. Gordon, in particular, has turned his season around after four lost months. After ending July slashing .202/.313/.335 for the year. In August, Gordon has mashed his way to a .284/.358/.547 line with 7 home runs.

Add in a good month from shortstop Alcides Escobar after Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost dropped him to the no. 8 spot in the order from leadoff. With Escobar hitting a scorching .307/.352/.475 in August, the Royals now have eight effective hitters in the lineup. That’s enough to Keep The Line Moving.

Even Mondesi Contributes

While rookie second baseman Raul Mondesi Jr. is only hitting .191/.232/.298, he at least brings outstanding bunting skills combined with great speed. He can keep rallies going simply by moving base-runners and shows decent pop when he does manage to make contact (1 2B, 3 3B, and 1HR in 94 at bats).

If the KC Royals continue to Keep The Line Moving they’ll find themselves playing in October.

Aug 26, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Ian Kennedy (31) throws a pitch against the Boston Red Sox in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Royals starting pitchers spent the first four months of 2016 stinking up major-league baseball. In the first half, opponents lit up Kansas City starters for a 4.99 ERA (25th in MLB). The Royals starting pitchers also gave up 87 home runs, which trailed only the CIncinnati Reds who gave up 88.

Pretty much any way you cut it, the KC Royals staring pitchers were awful.

But, flip the calendar forward to August, and the Kansas City rotation starts taking over games. They rank second in major league baseball with a 3.02 ERA in August, trailing only the Cubs at 2.27. Consider, also, that the Royals play in the American League where they face designated hitters instead of pitchers. By the way, those numbers are after the Red Sox hung seven runs on KC Royals ace Danny Duffy on Saturday, and four runs on in 4.1 innings on Yordano Ventura on Sunday.

Even with the seven run debacle, Danny Duffy sports a cool 2.51 ERA in August and a 2.90 ERA in the second half. Yordano Ventura numbers are 2.93 ERA for the second half and 2.03 for August. Ian Kenendy checks in at 2.83 and an outrageous 1.11 ERA this last month. Even no. 5 starter Dillon Gee joined the party with a 3.69 ERA in August.

The Exception

Edinson Volquez has been the exception, with a 4.96 ERA in the second half and getting lit up for a disappointing 5.81 ERA over the last month.

Even so, four rolling starters has been enough to fuel a long winning streak in which the KC Royals have won 18 of their last 22.  While there’s no guarantee that the strong starting pitching will continue, a number of things indicate that it’s not just a hot streak. For one, the Kansas City Royals starters are giving up a lot less home runs. To me that suggests that the Royals have adjusted to the homer-happy scoring environment in 2016 after getting beat over the head the first half of the season.

In August, those dingers have declined to 20. That’s the ninth-best total for starting staffs in major-league baseball, which is a big improvement from second worst.

Aug 29, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) dumps the water cooler on shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) and TV broadcaster Joel Goldberg after the game against the New York Yankees at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won 8-5. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

1. Favorable Schedule

The biggest reason I see the Kansas City Royals making the 2016 playoffs is a favorable finishing schedule.

Of their final 31 games, the KC Royals play 17 games against the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, and Oakland A’s. Cleveland plays the White Sox and Twins 12 more times, but don’t have any more games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Tigers play 15 games against teams with a losing record and 12 against the Twins and White Sox.

The Royals also have ample opportunity to make up the 5.5 games they trail the Indians and the 1.0 game they need to make up on the Tigers. Kansas City has six remaining games with both teams, with one home and one away series against both rivals. The Kansas City Royals also finish the season with a three-game set against current AL Central leader Cleveland at Kauffman Stadium.

That’s not all the Scheduling Gods have gifted to our KC Royals. Nineteen of their final 31 games are at Kauffman Stadium where the Royals have gone 41-21.  The Tigers play 16 of their final 31 at home and the Indians get 18 of their final 32 at Jacobs Field. But remember that the Indians play 20 games against winning teams down the stretch.

Another nice bonus for Kansas City is that the Orioles, who currently hold the second AL wild card position by a mere 2.0 games over the Royals, play 21 winning teams in their last 31 games.

Throw in the fact that the AL East wild card contenders Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, and Red Sox will spend the next month beating up each other due to the unbalanced schedules, and the KC Royals are well positioned to emerge from September with a post-season bid.

So, what do you guys think? Am I a fanboy, or do I have good reasons to believe in the Kansas City Royals? You can tell me your opinion in comments below or vote in my Twitter poll:

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