Cleveland Indians: At Risk of Losing Players to Rule 5 Draft?
Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Could the Cleveland Indians be at risk for losing any unprotected players in the Rule 5 Draft?
The Cleveland Indians recently made some changes to their 40-man roster, adding a trio of players ahead of the Rule 5 Draft Roster deadline. Interesting though was that only one of the three players added, Francisco Mejia, was already a member of the Cleveland Indians organization. The other two, Tim Cooney and Edwin Escobar, were claimed off waivers from the St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks, respectively.
This means the Indians have left a couple of Rule 5 Draft eligible players exposed to the draft. The question is, are any of these players at risk to be taken in the draft? Or did the Indians make the right call rostering just Mejia?
In years past, the Cleveland Indians have typically rostered around four or five players ahead of the Major League Baseball Rule 5 Draft. In fact, in each of the previous two years, they added five players, including the likes of Tyler Naquin, Mike Clevinger, Cody Anderson, and Ryan Merritt among others. This year though was a relatively weak Rule 5 Draft class for the Indians.
So while I did expect a couple more to be added, it was not a huge surprise to see only Mejia protected. That doesn’t mean no one will be taken when the Rule 5 Draft takes place on December 8.
The first player that will likely jump out at fans is Nellie Rodriguez. The right-handed slugger hit 26 home runs for Double-A Akron last year and drove in 85 runs for the third straight season. Rodriguez continues to be one of the better power threats in the Tribe’s system.
He also improved his walk rate again, raising it to 13 percent. All of this would bode well for a guy to get taken in the draft. However, Rodriguez is strictly a first baseman and lacks versatility that teams look for. He also struck out 32 percent of the time in 2016, raising serious questions about how his bat will play at the next level.
May 16, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Cleveland Indians baseball hat and glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Indians at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Indians defeated the Rangers 10-8. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Odds to be taken: Less than 25 percent
Maybe the best prospect not protected was Anthony Santander. The outfielder enjoyed a breakout 2016 season that saw him healthy all year and hitting 20 home runs while adding 10 stolen bases. He also hit .290 with a .368 on-base percentage while walking nearly 10 percent of the time and striking out just 20 percent.
Statistically, he put up numbers teams would drool over. However, he did all this at just Advanced-A Lynchburg. He also is not the best defensive outfielder and while he showed some versatility in playing first base, isn’t going to be a guy teams can easily stash on their bench all year.
Odds to be taken: Less than 10 percent
One of the better pitchers the Cleveland Indians left unprotected was left-hander Luis Lugo. A borderline top-30 prospect, Lugo has yet to put up big time numbers but has been pretty consistent throwing 136 innings this year, topping 125 for the third straight year. He spent the season at Advanced-A Lynchburg for the second year a row, posting a respectable 4.04 ERA.
He stands 6-foot-5 and has the build to be a successful starter; however, the strikeouts have dropped for two straight seasons, down to just 7.5 K/9 from 10.4 K/9 in 2014. While teams can never have enough lefties in the bullpen, it would be a big surprise to see him in an organization other than Cleveland this year.
February 22, 2012; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Cleveland Indians general manager Chris Antonetti watches a bullpen session during spring training at the Cleveland Indians Player Development Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Odds to be taken: Less than 5 percent
Catcher and first baseman Jeremy Lucas is another longshot to be taken though I would not completely rule him out. He hit 12 home runs at Double-A Akron and eventually found his way to Triple-A Columbus for a short time. A good offensive player that can catch is something teams love. He can play some first base as well so could find a home as an extra bench player with some teams. Defensively he’s not the best catcher though.
There are a few others that could maybe pique the interest of teams. Last year, the Indians lost reliever Josh Martin in the Rule 5 Draft, only to get him back when he didn’t make the San Diego Padres roster out of spring training. He had another solid season, this time at Triple-A Columbus.
He posted a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. However, the right-hander saw his strikeout rate drop from 10.2 K/9 in 2015 to 8.2 in 2016. Still good, but not the kind of eye-popping number teams would go for.
The catching pair of Eric Haase and Sicnarf Loopstok are longshots but each can hit and catch, which makes them potential targets. Mitch Brown is an interesting option as well to a team that believes he can be converted to a reliever in quick order.
Jeff Johnson, Ronny Rodriguez, Michael Peoples, and Trevor Franks are a few others who some team maybe takes a flyer on but don’t expect any of them to be taken either.
Odds to be taken: Less than 1 percent
In the last decade, the only player of any significance the Cleveland Indians have lost in the Rule 5 Draft was reliever Hector Rondon, who ended up with the Chicago Cubs several years ago. Rondon was always an elite talent who simply suffered too many injuries to stick with Cleveland.
I don’t see any player on this list that holds up to the likes of a Rondon, though one never knows for sure when it comes to the Rule 5 Draft. Last year many thought Jeff Johnson would be drafted but he was not. Instead, Josh Martin was taken due to his ability to go multiple innings. Different teams look for different traits and skills in players.
While I would be a bit surprised if anyone was drafted (let alone stick with a team), it’s definitely a possibility though not one that any Tribe fan should be worried about. None of these players are top-10 prospects and only Santander may be a top-15. So rest assured Tribe fans, the Indians made the right call in rostering only Francisco Mejia. Any potential losses would be minimal.
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