Jul 24, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; A Cincinnati Reds hat on top of third base in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
The Cincinnati Reds traded away starter Dan Straily to the Miami Marlins. How did it affect their top 10 list?
An Introduction
Our minor league top 10 series is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call To The Pen.
He has poured over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. These lists are based out of those conversations.
Each system will have prospects from 10 to 1, and then finish with one newcomer to the system that is worth keeping an eye on that is not in the top 10 at this time.
Conversations are certainly encouraged in the comments section on each system as we go along!
Reds System Review
The Reds have competed as recently as 2013, but after stumbling through 2014, the team went full force into rebuild mode, losing 98 games in 2015 and 94 on 2016.
This has given the Reds significant draft pick and international bonus pool money, and they’ve been able to turn that into some substantial prospects and also done some exceptional scouting as well. We’ll talk about some of that in the final slide with their newcomer to watch, but they’ve caught guys off of the radar as well as the mainstream guys.
While the Reds haven’t gone full “scorched earth” like teams like the Braves and Padres did in their rebuilds, trading away anyone but young, controllable assets, they’ve still made significant progress in their minor league system. A system that was very top-heavy after that 2014 season now has much better depth.
They may not be done tearing down yet, either. There are significant rumors this offseason of the Reds looking to move Brandon Phillips, Zack Cozart, and even one or more of their “established” pitchers in Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani. Those deals could add even more depth to their system, and DeSclafani could bring back a significant return.
Let’s take a look at the top 10!
10. Antonio Santillan, RHP
Birthdate: 4/15/97 (19 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, low AStats in 2016: 69 1/3 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13.25 BB%, 27.81 K%
My first thought when seeing Santillan this summer for Dayton was “holy cow, that is a large man!” The second thought was hearing that he’d just thrown 97 the previous pitch and thinking that there was no way he generated 97 miles per hour so easily.
He is all of that, and still a teenager! Santillan was drafted out of high school in Texas in the 2nd round in 2015, and he made a big impression on scouts this summer with his easy, heavy velocity.
Santillan was a two-way player who still can handle the bat well when given the chance, but he does have his big heavy fastball that he gets on top of and gets late movement down in the zone when all is working right.
His primary off speed pitch is a hard curve that comes in at 83-86 MPH, a premium velocity for a curve ball. The snap he gets on the pitch is simply ridiculous, but it’s also the pitch he has the most difficulty with when he gets off in his delivery.
While he is a big man, Santillan is a fairly good athlete on the mound, and sometimes that comes to bite him. He tends to step a bit to the third base side as he strides toward home and throw across his body. When he can keep that just a tiny bit of cross-fire, he’s fine and dominates. However, when he gets a bit too far to the third base side, he has a habit of trying to use that athleticism to overcompensate and he gets underneath his fastball, letting it hang up in the zone and his curve gets much more loopy.
As he gets more instruction and comfortable in his delivery, his command and his change up will be much better. He seems to struggle with the change when he’s out of line, and that will be the determining factor as to whether he’s a starter or reliever down the road. Santillan’s raw stuff in the bullpen would quickly make him an elite power closer if he was moved into the relief role.
9. Nick Hanson, RHP
Birthdate: 6/10/98 (18 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookieStats in 2016: 16 2/3 IP, 9.18 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 17.24 BB%, 17.24 K%
I’ll be upfront with this one – I’m a fan of cold-weather pitchers. Hanson is from Minnesota, and that also allowed me to get more first-hand information on him than I had on a lot of people in the draft.
After a summer where he showed up very well in the showcase circuit, Hanson returned home to Minnesota, and the big 6’6 righty had an up and down spring, moving him from a possible back-end first round pick to where the Reds nabbed him in the 3rd round.
Hanson has a fastball that has excellent life, sitting at 91-94, reaching a peak during the summer of 97. His curve was a pitch he could bury off the plate and get swings due to the late break he got on the pitch. While his feel for his change would come and go, when it was on, it was a borderline plus pitch, but that was inconsistent to see at best.
Hanson struggled in his first exposure to pro ball, and that was to be expected, but he has the makings of an excellent mid-rotation starter or even a frontline guy if it all comes together. With three potential plus-level pitches, Hanson is the type of guy that will get every opportunity to start before having to be moved to the bullpen.
8. Tyler Stephenson, C
Birthdate: 8/16/96 (20 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, low AStats in 2016: .220/.287/.340, 4 HR
Stephenson was the top-rated catcher in the 2015 draft, and it wasn’t particularly close in that regard. The Reds were feeling grateful to grab Stephenson at 11th overall, especially as he jumped forward all the way to the advanced rookie Pioneer League in his draft season.
Injuries rattled Stephenson’s season in 2016, and it will end up dropping him on many rankings. He still has a very solid ability at the plate, with a swing that indicates future big-time power. He also has a plus arm behind the plate.
The development of catching in general is a slower process than other prospects, but high school catching in particular takes extra time as they need to learn how to defend the position, instruct their pitching staff, and lead the field from behind the mask.
Stephenson has work to do especially on his lateral movement and reading runners on base, but he showed natural skills in pitch framing and game calling to this point behind the plate.
For most catchers, their development at the plate comes after their development behind it as far as organizational focus, and Stephenson is no different. He’s been pushed in his defense and seemingly just left alone on the offensive end for now, but his natural skills with the stick should keep him afloat as he moves along.
7. Luis Castillo, RHP
Birthdate: 12/12/92 (23 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: high A, AAStats in 2016: 131 2/3 IP, 2.26 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 4.81 BB%, 19.81 K%
Castillo was acquired from the Giants by the Marlins in the Casey McGehee deal, and he was nearly shipped out in the Colin Rea fiasco with the Padres this summer, so he’s been bounced around a bit, finally landing in Cincinnati now this offseason.
Castillo’s stuff, while raw, isn’t the type that you’d think to bounce around the way it has. He has a fastball that clears triple digits with ease and sits in the 94-96 range consistently.
He throws his slider like a power sinker, getting heavy late action on the pitch with a higher velocity than your average slider when he’s got a good feel for it. When he’s working both, he’s got a legitimate plus fastball and slider.
His change has been a work in progress, but he made big strides with at least sequencing the pitch this season, using it well against same-handed and opposite-handed hitters.
He does have much more control than command right now, but his stuff all works low in the zone, and creates a lot of weak contact, generally missing the barrel and allowing for him to have tremendous success with lower strikeout rates.
He profiles as a mid-rotation starter that should likely start 2017 in the upper minors, whether AA or AAA, and could push for a September call up. He could work as a power reliever as well if he doesn’t work out in the rotation.
6. Taylor Trammell, OF
Birthdate: 9/13/97 (19 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookieStats in 2016: .303/.374/.421, 2 HR, 24 SB
Considered one of the absolute elite athletes in the 2016 draft, Trammell was rumored in pre-draft mocks as high as top 12 in the entire draft, so for the Reds to get him at #35 overall in the draft has to have been considered a coup.
Trammell was a highly recruited football player, with multiple SEC offers coming out of high school, and he’s built like a wide receiver or a tall cornerback. He’s long and lean, but built with an incredible quick twitch in his body.
Trammell showed to be extremely raw in his baseball skills in his time with the Pioneer League, though he did have a solid walk rate on top of a big strikeout rate. He did exhibit that big athleticism, however, with 6 triples and 24 stolen bases.
Trammell has one tool that is concerning of all of his baseball tools, and that’s his arm from the outfield. That could lead to him playing left field in the long run, but he has shown already innate ability to track balls in the outfield, whether in center or a corner, so if the Reds could live with his arm in center, he’d do well there.
Trammell did jump straight to advanced rookie level in 2016, but it would not surprise if he takes a bit of time to develop due to how raw he still is. There is the level of athleticism here, however, that is raw in the game, and in a year, we could be looking at a consensus top 100 prospect.
Feb 24, 2016; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jesse Winker poses for a portrait during media day at the Reds training facility at Goodyear Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
5. Jesse Winker, OF
Birthdate: 8/17/93 (23 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, AAAStats in 2016: .308/.402/.402, 5 HR
When the Reds traded Jay Bruce in summer of 2016, many saw that as a clear sign of the opening of the door for Winker in 2017. Winker is never really going to be a guy who sets the world on fire with his speed, but outside of that, he very well could be the prototypical leadoff hitter.
Winker was the Reds first round selection in 2012, and he’s been working his way up ever since. He’s got a solid amount of power off the bat, but his power is strongly gap power rather than over-the-fence power. He has an exceptional eye as evidenced by his nearly even BB/K ratio in his minor league career (292/339) with an excellent 13.96 BB% and a very respectable 16.21 K%.
Winker isn’t going to win any Gold Gloves for his play in the outfield. His range is average, and his arm is below-average, but he does make a catch on everything he gets to, seemingly.
Winker has a significant amount of raw power that he could tap into with an adjustment to his swing, but he would possibly lose some of the control of the zone he has with his quick swing by altering his swing path. As it stands, Winker could take over in left field, allowing Adam Duvall to move to right field, and he would be ideal leading off or hitting second with Billy Hamilton at the top of the lineup in Cincinnati for a long time to come.
Apr 7, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Robert Stephenson throws against the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
4. Robert Stephenson, RHP
Birthdate: 2/24/93 (23 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA/MLBStats in 2016: 136 2/3 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 12.01 BB%, 20.3 K% (minor league stats only)
Seeing Stephenson fall off in the eyes of many scouts has to feel like prospect fatigue for many as he’s just 23 and still owns a monster fastball.
However, watching Stephenson in the last year has shown some major concerns. That fastball is a legit 70-80 grade on the 20-80 scale, but for a guy who was able to work well with that fastball low in the zone and command it fairly well. The big question with Stephenson previously was always about his ability to control his off-speed stuff.
Stephenson is a guy who can bump triple digits with his fastball without a whole lot of effort. He tried in 2015 to take a couple ticks off the fastball for better control, but it also took movement off of his excellent curve ball.
He reached the majors this year, but his control became an issue, and attempting to overcome that control led to flattening of his fastball and change, which led to them both getting hit hard, leading to 9 home runs allowed in just 37 major league innings.
With his high-end pitches, Stephenson likely has another year or two working as a starter before they force him into a relief role. I believe he would be an elite reliever with his big fastball, excellent change, and power curve, but there’s still enough chance that he could be a late bloomer as a starter to leave him this high.
3. Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP
Birthdate: 9/18/95 (21 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: noneStats in 2016: Did not play in 2016
When Gutierrez left Cuba after the 2014-2015 season, he was considered very possibly the best arm to leave Cuba since Aroldis Chapman. Some said that the last Reds pitching signing from Cuba, Raisel Iglesias, was a better comparison.
In my view of video on Gutierrez, I’d agree he’s more a spitting image of Iglesias, though he may actually have a better starter’s repertoire than Iglesias. He sits with a fastball that works into the mid-90s with easy velocity and an incredible curve. His change is also an above-average pitch. On top of all that he has tremendous control of all three pitches, especially to the lower-half of the zone.
Gutierrez is listed at 6’1 and 170ish pounds, and from video, that’s probably not terribly far off. He’s a very lean guy, but he’s got a lean frame as well, so I’m not terribly worried about him putting on more weight.
While he’ll likely rank behind fellow Cuban Yadier Alvarez, who was also signed within the last year by the Dodgers, I have a higher floor for Gutierrez just because of his organization. The Reds have done solid work with Cuban pitchers, and they have a sterling reputation in the industry in that regard.
If Gutierrez only ends up a reliever in the veins of previous Cuban pitchers in the Reds system, he’d be an elite one, much like Chapman has been and Iglesias will be if left in that role. Gutierrez will likely start out in A-ball, but expect him to be on a fast track, especially if the Reds leave him in the bullpen.
Jul 10, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; USA pitcher Amir Garrett throws a pitch in the second inning during the All Star Game futures baseball game at PetCo Park. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
2. Amir Garrett, LHP
Birthdate: 5/3/92 (24 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: AA/AAAStats in 2016: 144 2/3 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.09 BB%, 22.56 K%
Some reading this list will see the oldest guy on the list being the #2 prospect and wonder if I’ve perhaps lost my bearings. Garrett, however, is not your typical prospect. The big lefty was drafted by the Reds and given big money as the Reds allowed him to play college basketball in the school year and baseball in the summer.
He has moved to baseball full time, but that athleticism has been ever-present in his baseball career. Garrett has an exceptional fastball, sitting in the 92-96 range and touching 98-99. He gets excellent plane on the ball with his delivery, leveraging his long arms and long legs to get on top of the ball well.
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Garrett’s slider is a plus offering when it’s on, and an above-average one when it’s not, so it’s a solid pitch overall. His change made the biggest progress in 2016, going from an average pitch to a pitch that he consistently used as a plus pitch.
Garrett’s last hurdle is consistency in his delivery. He has long arms and legs, and he tends to get a touch off track in his long limbs within his delivery, and that affects his command of his pitches.
Garrett projects as a solid #2 starter at his peak or he could be an absolutely elite reliever if moved to the bullpen. Either way, he’s going to be a fun one to watch for Reds fans.
1. Nick Senzel, 3B
Birthdate: 6/29/95 (21 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: AA/AAAStats in 2016: .305/.398/.514, 7 HR, 18 SB
Widely considered the top college hitter in the 2016 draft, Senzel built off a strong Cape Cod League last summer to have a big year with Tennessee and build toward the Reds taking him at #2 overall in June. His signing bonus ended up being just short of the record bonus given in the modern draft slotting system.
Senzel does not have any physical projection left in his frame, but he’s also a very good athlete at his current build. After playing around the infield some in college, he’s still picking up the instincts of third base, but he does have the above-average arm and good glove work to make it work.
Senzel has a very explosive stroke, but it’s not without flaws. He pounds the gaps, as evidenced by his 24 doubles in just 243 minor league at bats. He’s already shown solid pitch recognition as well.
My cautionary tale with Senzel would be Alex Gordon who could have been the spitting image of Senzel, but with even more athleticism. All kinds of hitting ability, power, defense at third base, and a fast track to the majors.
Gordon made it to the majors quickly without seeing much resistance in the minor leagues, but he found the major leagues different sledding. Senzel strikes me as a guy who profiles as a solid regular, not a star-type, but he should reach the major leagues and hit that level of regular play fairly quick.
Newcomer To Keep An Eye On: T.J. Friedl, OF
Birthdate: 8/14/95 (21 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookieStats in 2016: .347/.423/.545, 3 HR, 7 SB
If you’ve followed my stuff here at CTTP, you’ll know this is the third time I’ve spotlighted Friedl, and with good reason. He may be the scouting job of the year.
Friedl was a redshirt sophomore, which would make him eligible for the 2016 draft, but even though scouts came to visit his school and even drafted some of his Nevada-Reno teammates and opponents, somehow it was missed all along that he was draft-eligible. The Reds found this later in the summer, and Friedl received a call while with Team USA offering him a contract as an undrafted free agent.
Friedl’s bonus was equal to a late 3rd round pick, and scouts I talk with say that’s about the range he likely would have been drafted had teams even been aware he was eligible.
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While he was fairly exhausted already from playing non-stop since February, Friedl was assigned to the advanced rookie level Pioneer League, and he simply hit once there, putting up an offensive line that could only be described by one scout as “awesome”.
Friedl is a guy whose defense will usually be the first thing to catch your eye. He’s got elite-level speed, borderline plus-plus, and he pairs that with exceptional instincts to track down nearly everything hit to the middle of the outfield. His arm is slightly above average, but he is quite accurate with his arm, allowing it to play up.
Friedl’s future is most likely as a high-end leadoff hitter with an above-average swing that creates gap power and shows good bat control through the zone along with excellent pitch recognition. He also has very good instincts on the basepaths, making the move from first to third on an ordinary single to the center fielder due to the break he got on the ball, per one report on him.
Friedl was a guy I had trouble leaving off the list, but he’s also a good example of the depth that the Reds have started to accumulate in their recent draft classes. When players like he, Chris Okey, and Alex Blandino cannot crack a top ten in an organization, that shows the depth of solid players the Reds are putting together.
Agree? Disagree? Someone you have a question about from the system? Leave a comment down below!
