Chicago Cubs: Which players could take a step back in 2017?
Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
The success of the Chicago Cubs in 2016 was a team effort and many players had great years. But, the team can’t count on everyone to perform as well in 2017.
There is a proverb that translates “it takes a village to raise a child.” While attributed to African cultures, the authenticity of the proverb is unknown. Regardless, the sentiment of the proverb is true. It was evident in the performance of the World Champion Chicago Cubs in 2016.
Every player on the Cubs stepped up in key moments. Even the struggling Jason Heyward pushed the team to a few wins last year with his bat. The grand slam of Miguel Montero in the playoffs. The game-winning home run on Mother’s Day off the pink bat of Javier Baez. The stellar defense of Addison Russell and pitching of the starting rotation. Everything worked together for the good of the team.
All of that, however, was in 2016. The team has changed. Key players from last year are no longer Cubs. New players arrive with the team this week to start Spring Training. And while we hope for good things, there are a few players that we may want to temper our expectations on in 2017.
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Jon Jay
For his career, new Chicago Cubs outfielder Jon Jay has performed well. With the exception of the 2015 season, Jay’s batting average is above .276, with three seasons of .300+. For his seven years in the majors, Jay’s split is .287/.352/.384. Very similar to the player Jay is replacing.
The last two seasons for Jay were shortened by injury. In 2016, a fastball from Washington Nationals’ pitcher Gio Gonzalez struck Jay in the forearm, fracturing his ulna. He missed much of 2015 due to wrist issues. The Cubs will need him to stay healthy in order to repeat last year’s success.
While Jay is a potential 2.5 or 3-WAR players and has 2,700 at bats, he is still an unknown. Before his 2016 season ended, he was batting .291. That would have been second on the Cubs, just behind Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo at .292. While his stat show consistent performance, the pressure to make a statement is real. Hopes are high, but do not expect him to take walks or score runs as did Dexter Fowler.
Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Willson Contreras
The flood of young prospects performing well in the Majors continued in 2016. Willson Contreras took the Chicago Cubs by storm. The 24-year old catcher hit a two-run homer when called to pinch hit for Kyle Hendricks against the Pirates. It was his first at-bat in the MLB. In his first 13 games, Contreras had a .325/.426/.600 slash line, and started 10 of those games.
Contreras finished his first season in the majors batting .282/.357/.488 with 12 home runs, 35 driven in, and scoring 33 runs. Additionally, he provided amazing defense, showing an ability to throw out would-be base stealers. The only true downside is that he allowed several pitches to get past him while catching.
He is a very aggressive player, taking chances when he thinks the time is right. However, his baseball instincts deceive him from time to time. While he started off hot, he cooled down tremendously because of aggressive swings and misses. In 2017, he will be taking on a larger catching role with the retirement of David Ross. With the focus on calling a game and being aware of defenses and runners, Contreras could struggle at the plate. Expect some valleys offensively for him.
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John Lackey
Fourteen-year veteran John Lackey had an above average year in 2016. He allowed a career low in hits (146) when starting more than 25 games (11 seasons). His 3.35 ERA was the third best in his career. And, he struck out 180 batters for the first time since 2006. All in all, it was a good year.
The Chicago Cubs were great in 2016, finishing with the top pitching staff and defense in all of baseball. No starting pitcher benefited from his defense more than Lackey. On the season, he left 76.2% of runners on base, 5% above his career average. However, he also allowed a higher number of hard hit balls (34.4%) than his average (27.8%). Simply put, Lackey needed great catches on line drives and fly balls in the gap to get out of jams. Furthermore, he gave up a home run on one out of every eight fly balls.
If the defense continues to shine and the offense gives Lackey leads, he could have another great year. That said, it is just as likely to be a year of struggles for him.
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Ben Zobrist
Ben Zobrist, in my opinion, what the key piece the Chicago Cubs needed. Solid player. A veteran coming off a World Series title. Patient switch-hitter than can play any parts of the field. He is a player the knows the game. And, if you read the book he co-wrote with his wife Julianna, you know that he is persistent and works hard.
In 2016, he proved his worth, finishing above career averages in runs, walks, batting average, and on-base percentage. He hit 18 home runs, something he had not done since 2012, and walked more than he struck out for the second time in his career. All of this, plus his experience over the years, lead to clutch plays and a World Series MVP.
It pains me to say this, but I am not sure he will keep the numbers up. Don’t get me wrong, I know he can and I hope he does. However, the last time he scored 94 runs was in 2011. And his 96 walks were just one short of a career-high. I know that he will contribute, but not to the same level as 2016. Why? Javier Baez made a statement in the postseason that he is ready to play every day. And Kyle Schwarber showed that his bat needs to be in the line-up. There just may not be enough plate appearances to go around. I trust Zobrist to perform well, but if his playing time is cut into, his rhythm may be out of sync.
What does 2017 hold?
These are simply “could happen” not “will happen” events. With the team that is in place, the offense that history potential, and the management willing to do what is needed, 2017 should be a fun year.
What are your thoughts? Are there other players that we should be concerned about seeing a down year? Let us know. And, be sure to check back for those players on the Chicago Cubs we think will have a breakout season.
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