Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Solid Finish, Bradley, Instructional League Roster
It is rare that a baseball team might wish the regular season would continue beyond 162 games. The Atlanta Braves might be one of those the exceptions.
Anybody actually want to have the Atlanta Braves on the schedule now? This is actually fun to watch the Braves play baseball right now. The pitching is coming around a bit, and the hitting is shockingly good.
Here’s some numbers to ponder:
These represent the Won-Loss record of the Braves after July 15th in 2014, 2015, and 2016 – followed by the run-scoring in each year.
Right now the run-scoring ranks third in the NL since that date, and it’s even better since the trade deadline. This is a whole lot better than the swoons of the past two years, but there’s one more number – a bad one – that should actually give rise to some optimism for the future:
321
That’s the number of runs allowed over that same period (since July 15). It’s the third worst in the NL. Imagine the team’s record in the second half had that been reduced by an average of one run per game (to 230). While this would rank in the league’s top two, it is still roughly asking for a 5 ERA to drop to a 4… which historically isn’t out of the norm for this franchise.
That’s the kind of pitching we normally expect from the Braves – and the promise of that kind of ‘normal’ is on the horizon.
A +61 run differential can definitely do some damage to opponents over a 60 game stretch. There’s another team that has that kind of run differential for the second half (+87 in their case). It’s the Cubs… sporting a 42-20 record since July 15.
I don’t expect that hitting like this can be sustained… probably not at this pace, at least… but get something close to that plus quality pitching, and that’s a formula for success.
Sep 7, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) celebrates with center fielder Ender Inciarte (11) after hitting a solo home run against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Remember how bad the Braves were? They’re not so bad now
MARK BRADLEY / AJC.COM (SEPT 20)
More from Tomahawk Take
Dansby Swanson has played 27 big-league games. Per Baseball-Reference, he has a WAR value of 0.6. Extrapolated over 162 games, that’s a WAR of 3.6, which wouldn’t quite be All-Star caliber but wouldn’t be far off. (I know, I know. Almost nobody plays all 162 games. Hear me out.)
Ender Inciarte has a WAR of 3.4, which is third among Atlanta Braves behind Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran. That puts Inciarte in the “solid starter” classification of WAR, and there’s your Shelby Miller trade right there — a starting shortstop, a starting center fielder and Aaron Blair, who won his first MLB game last night.
Swanson is 23. Inciarte is 25. Blair is 24. I guess it’s possible to make a better trade, but realistically I don’t see how.
We knew when it happened this had the potential to be a coup of coups, but nobody had any idea Miller would have such a year. (He has returned to the majors after a demotion to Class AAA but has gotten no better. He has an ERA of 6.90 and a WAR of minus-1.3.) And nobody knew if Inciarte would ever hit here after a damp squib of a start, and nobody could say for sure that Swanson wouldn’t struggle on arrival. But here they are.
The Braves, who weren’t really trying to win, have won 59 games. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who fancied themselves a playoff contender, have won 63. Three of their past four Round 1 picks — Swanson, Blair and Touki Toussaint — now work for the Braves. Which organization would you rather be?
…[snip – more at link above]…
[ Ed note: TomahawkTake welcomes Mark Bradley to the bandwagon party. I know hell would probably freeze over if the AJC’s Jeff Schultz also acknowledges just how much better this club has been and how bright a future it has, but we’ve left a seat open for him, just in case. At least Mark seems to have been more open-minded along the way.
(In Schultz’s most recent column about the Braves, his premise is that John Coppolella is good on twitter. For him, maybe that’s a start. )
Bradley wrote a bunch more on this topic at the link above – so feel free to click over there and enjoy the view. ]
Mar 19, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; A view of the Florida spring training logo patch during the game between the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Yankees defeat the Braves 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Braves Instructional League Roster
I will admit it. I have never looked for, nor looked at an Instructional League roster before. Over the last year or two, nothing really caught my interest in checking for such a list, and in the years before that, it was really hard to get that information.
So as I confess that, a glance at the list of players that the Braves have assembled for some extra seasoning is … okay, jaw-dropping. It’s a crazy-deep list of the prospects from AA and down… including many of the 16-year-olds just signed from the International market… yes, including Kevin Maitan.
The Braves’ contingent might normally be getting a bit more press, but it’s probably okay that Tim Tebow is sucking all of the media’s attention over toward Port St. Lucie, so everybody else can actually get some work done.
The league does play some games, and those run from next week through mid-October.
Here’s the basic list – there’s more data on each player over at the baseballamerica.com link above:
Pitchers (21)
Catchers (6)
Infielders (10)
Outfielders (6)
We will definitely be looking forward to the reports out of Florida about this crew… whenever they play the Mets, I guess.
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