Washington's Markelle Fultz, Duke's Jayson Tatum lead top projected freshmen scorers
Sports Illustrated’s College Basketball Projection System is a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs that produces our 1-351 team rankings, conference predictions and player statistical forecasts. For a deeper look at how the system works, read this explainer.
We simulated the season 10,000 times and generated median stats for every player in the top eight conferences (AAC, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) as well as our other forecasted at-large bid candidates (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, Wichita State, San Diego State and Princeton). Today we’re unveiling our projected top 50 freshman scorers, according to raw points per game, from that set of teams.
| Rank | Player | Team | Pos. | PPG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| 1 | Markelle Fultz | Washington | PG | 18.2 | 114.6 | 27% | 81% |
| 2 | Jayson Tatum | Duke | SF | 16.8 | 117.7 | 25% | 79% |
| 3 | Malik Monk | Kentucky | SG | 16.0 | 117.1 | 25% | 77% |
| 4 | Josh Jackson | Kansas | SF | 15.7 | 119.0 | 23% | 79% |
| 5 | Dennis Smith Jr. | North Carolina St. | PG | 15.4 | 120.1 | 22% | 87% |
It’ll be an upset if Washington’s Markelle Fultz (No. 1) isn’t the top freshman scorer. He’s in an optimal situation for big numbers: The Huskies play fast—they get nine more possessions per game than a D-I average team—and he’ll be relied on to carry their offense as a lead guard. His fluid scoring and playmaking ability will be reminiscent of recent Ohio State product D’Angelo Russell, and Fultz’s projected stat line (18.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.2 apg) is similar to what Russell did in his one-and-done college season (19.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.0 apg).
| Rank | Player | Team | Pos. | PPG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| 6 | Lonzo Ball | UCLA | PG | 13.8 | 116.9 | 22% | 77% |
| 7 | De'Aaron Fox | Kentucky | PG | 12.9 | 117.6 | 21% | 77% |
| 8 | Jonathan Isaac | Florida St. | SF | 12.8 | 116.7 | 21% | 69% |
| 9 | Bam Adebayo | Kentucky | C | 12.5 | 116.3 | 24% | 63% |
| 10 | Miles Bridges | Michigan St. | SF | 12.5 | 104.9 | 25% | 68% |
| Rank | Player | Team | Pos. | PPG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| 11 | Harry Giles | Duke | PF | 12.0 | 120.7 | 22% | 63% |
| 12 | Marcus LoVett | St. John's | PG | 10.9 | 101.4 | 19% | 82% |
| 13 | T.J. Leaf | UCLA | PF | 10.5 | 111.5 | 20% | 63% |
| 14 | TJ Haws | BYU | SG | 10.3 | 117.5 | 17% | 66% |
| 15 | Josh Langford | Michigan St. | SG | 10.2 | 109.8 | 21% | 62% |
| 16 | Quinton Rose | Temple | SG | 10.2 | 99.4 | 21% | 70% |
| 17 | Jarrett Allen | Texas | C | 9.9 | 108.8 | 21% | 61% |
| 18 | Lauri Markkanen | Arizona | PF | 9.8 | 109.8 | 21% | 60% |
| 19 | Mustapha Heron | Auburn | SG | 9.8 | 109.3 | 22% | 55% |
| 20 | Tyree Crump | Georgia | SG | 9.7 | 101.4 | 19% | 69% |
St. John’s point guard Marcus LoVett (No. 12) is the first redshirt freshman in the top 50. He had to sit out 2015–16 after being deemed a partial academic qualifier by the NCAA but is ready to assume a starting role for the rebuilding Red Storm.
| Rank | Player | Team | Pos. | PPG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| 21 | Tyson Carter | Mississippi St. | PG | 9.7 | 102.6 | 19% | 73% |
| 22 | Amir Coffey | Minnesota | SG/SF | 9.7 | 113.4 | 17% | 72% |
| 23 | Tyus Battle | Syracuse | SG | 9.7 | 106.4 | 18% | 71% |
| 24 | DeJon Jarreau | Massachusetts | PG | 9.6 | 101.6 | 19% | 72% |
| 25 | Tony Carr | Penn St. | PG | 9.4 | 107.8 | 19% | 70% |
| 26 | Bruce Brown | Miami FL | SG | 9.4 | 106.5 | 21% | 61% |
| 27 | Lamonte Turner | Tennessee | PG | 9.2 | 103.5 | 18% | 72% |
| 28 | Omer Yurtseven | North Carolina St. | C | 9.1 | 111.2 | 20% | 56% |
| 29 | Mario Kegler | Mississippi St. | SF | 8.7 | 105.2 | 20% | 56% |
| 30 | Andrew Jones | Texas | PG/SG | 8.6 | 106.7 | 20% | 63% |
| Rank | Player | Team | Pos. | PPG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| 31 | Danjel Purifoy | Auburn | SF | 8.5 | 102.4 | 19% | 58% |
| 32 | Rawle Alkins | Arizona | GF | 8.5 | 105.5 | 19% | 58% |
| 33 | Sam Cunliffe | Arizona St. | SG | 8.3 | 106.5 | 19% | 57% |
| 34 | De'Riante Jenkins | VCU | SF/SG | 8.2 | 106.3 | 20% | 52% |
| 35 | Jarron Cumberland | Cincinnati | SG | 8.0 | 105.7 | 20% | 53% |
| 36 | Isaiah Roby | Nebraska | SF | 8.0 | 110.3 | 19% | 55% |
| 37 | De'Ron Davis | Indiana | PF | 8.0 | 109.2 | 19% | 53% |
| 38 | Dewan Huell | Miami FL | FC | 8.0 | 106.1 | 19% | 55% |
| 39 | Zach Collins | Gonzaga | C | 7.8 | 111.7 | 18% | 54% |
| 40 | Cassius Winston | Michigan St. | PG | 7.7 | 106.6 | 21% | 53% |
| Rank | Player | Team | Pos. | PPG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| 41 | Justin Jackson | Maryland | SF | 7.7 | 101.7 | 21% | 51% |
| 42 | Tony Bradley | North Carolina | C | 7.6 | 118.4 | 16% | 55% |
| 43 | Eric Vila | Texas A&M | SF | 7.6 | 95.8 | 19% | 58% |
| 44 | Temple Gibbs | Notre Dame | PG | 7.4 | 104.4 | 21% | 52% |
| 45 | Schnider Herard | Mississippi St. | C | 7.4 | 103.1 | 19% | 51% |
| 46 | Jethro Tshisumpa | Arizona St. | C | 7.4 | 103.8 | 18% | 55% |
| 47 | Mike Watkins | Penn St. | PF | 7.3 | 102.0 | 18% | 55% |
| 48 | Kristian Doolittle | Oklahoma | SF | 7.3 | 105.4 | 17% | 55% |
| 49 | Kevin Huerter | Maryland | SG | 7.2 | 104.3 | 18% | 53% |
| 50 | Shamorie Ponds | St. John's | PG | 7.2 | 105.4 | 20% | 48% |
Eric Vila (No. 43) is an unheralded recruit out of Spain who could earn minutes as an oversized wing for a Texas A&M team with a talented frontcourt. The Big 12’s biggest sleeper freshman, meanwhile, might be Kristian Doolittle (No. 48), who projects to be a key role player on a new-look Oklahoma team in Year 1 after Buddy Hield.
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