College Basketball

2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Florida Still a No. 1 Seed? Miami (OH) In or Out?

Updated Mar. 15, 2026 1:17 p.m. ET

The most anticipated — and nerve-racking — day on the college basketball calendar has arrived.

Once the final five conference tournaments crown their champions, the attention turns to the unveiling of the 68-team field for this year’s NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

In his latest bracket projections, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy has Duke, Florida, Michigan and Arizona as No. 1 seeds. Michigan, Duke and Arizona have separated themselves from the pack over the course of the season and appear firmly positioned to remain on the top line, while Florida is projected to hold onto the final No. 1 seed despite an unexpected loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament semifinal round.

While those four programs won’t be sweating when the bracket is revealed, the same can’t be said for Miami (OH). The RedHawks finished the regular season with a perfect 31-0 record but suffered a stunning upset to UMass in their first game of the MAC Tournament.

Now the question looming over Selection Sunday: Will Miami (OH)’s remarkable season be enough to earn an at-large bid to the Big Dance?

With that, DeCourcy shares his latest NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament projections:

EAST REGION

SOUTH REGION

MIDWEST REGION

WEST REGION

As for the bubble, Miami (OH), Missouri, SMU and Texas are the last four teams in the tournament, according to DeCourcy's latest projections, while San Diego State, Auburn, Oklahoma and New Mexico are the first four out.

As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams, while the Big Ten has nine teams. The ACC and the Big 12 each have eight teams in DeCourcy's latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the A-10 and MAC have two teams.