Favorites and Sleepers: Arlington

Note: INDYCAR.com’s Eric Smith takes a fun look before each NTT INDYCAR SERIES race at drivers entering the weekend with an inside line to Victory Lane and others who could surprise with a strong result.

Coverage of Sunday’s Java House Grand Prix of Arlington begins at 12:30 p.m. ET on FOX, FOX One, the FOX Sports app, FOX Deportes and INDYCAR Radio powered by OnlyBulls.

This primer sets the scene with five favorites and five additional drivers to watch in the inaugural race, which could reward drivers who excel on street circuits.

Honda has won 14 of the last 16 street-course races dating to Toronto in 2022, with all those victories coming from Chip Ganassi Racing or Andretti Global drivers. Pato O’Ward is the lone Chevrolet driver to reach Victory Lane in that stretch, winning at St. Petersburg in 2024 and Toronto last season.

Favorites

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Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 DEX Team Penske Chevrolet)

McLaughlin cut his street-course average finish in half between 2024 and 2025, dropping from 24.33 to 12.0. If that trend continues, multiple podiums -- or even a win -- could follow. Why not Arlington? McLaughlin earned the NTT P1 Award for the season-opening Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg and finished second. He enters the weekend fifth in points after finishing second and eighth in the opening two races.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Street courses continue to suit Dixon. In his last 20 starts on temporary circuits, he has four wins (Toronto 2022, Nashville 2023, Long Beach 2024, Detroit 2024) and 13 top-six finishes, including 10 results of fifth or better. Dixon admitted following his seventh-place finish last Saturday at Phoenix Raceway that must be his worst finish the rest of the season if he wants to remain in the championship race. Watch out for Dixon this weekend.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Street circuits have become one of Palou’s strengths. He has just three finishes worse than eighth in his last 20 street races, producing 10 podiums and 15 top-six results in that span. That stretch includes his March 1 victory at St. Petersburg. Palou also has won two of the last three inaugural INDYCAR SERIES races: 2023 Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix presented by Lear on the Streets of Detroit and the 2025 The Thermal Club Grand Prix.

Will Power (No. 26 TMG AI Honda)

This entry started on the front row in all four street races last season under the control of Colton Herta. Power also has five top-six finishes in his last nine street-course starts. While he has crashed in both qualifying sessions this season, the speed appears to be there on race day. Power drove from last to first last weekend at Phoenix Raceway before a Lap 207 crash with Christian Rasmussen while battling for the lead.

Kyle Kirkwood (No. 27 JM Bullion/ Gold.com Honda)

Few drivers thrive on street circuits like Kirkwood. He has four career wins on temporary courses, including victories last season at Long Beach and Detroit. He also produced a series-best 3.25 average finish in four street races last year. Kirkwood finished fourth at St. Petersburg and enters the weekend second in the standings, with two top-five finishes in as many races.

Sleepers

Pato O’Ward (No. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

O’Ward closed the 2025 season strong on street circuits with a seventh-place finish in Detroit and a victory in Toronto. He has produced an eighth-place average finish on street courses in each of the past two seasons. O’Ward qualified eighth and finished fifth in the season opener at St. Petersburg before qualifying seventh and finishing fourth last weekend at Phoenix Raceway.

Christian Lundgaard (No. 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

Lundgaard produced an eighth-place average finish on street circuits in his first season with Arrow McLaren last year. He qualified 12th at St. Petersburg this season, but the team quickly identified the issue and improved the car for race day, resulting in a third-place finish.

Kyffin Simpson (No. 8 Sunoco Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Simpson (photo, top) showed speed on street circuits last season with three top-10 finishes in four races, including a fifth-place finish in Detroit and a podium in Toronto. He finished 15th in the season opener at St. Petersburg but improved to 10th last weekend at Phoenix.

Marcus Ericsson (No. 28 InPwr Honda)

Ericsson is a three-time NTT INDYCAR SERIES winner on street circuits. Last season he finished sixth, 12th, 13th and fifth in four street races. The Swede began 2026 with a front-row start at St. Petersburg and finished sixth.

Felix Rosenqvist (No. 60 SiriusXM/Texas A&M Honda)

Rosenqvist has been consistent on street circuits. He recorded a 7.33 average finish in four street races in 2024 and eight top-10 finishes in his last 13 street-course starts overall.