Illinois vs. Xavier Prediction, Odds, Picks - NCAA Tournament First Round

Updated Mar. 21, 2025 8:29 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) will try to defeat the No. 11 seed Xavier Musketeers (22-11) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at Fiserv Forum. This matchup tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET.

The Fighting Illini take the court as 4.5-point favorites against the Musketeers. The game's over/under is set at 161.5.

Keep scrolling to get all the information before wagering on the Illinois-Xavier clash.

Illinois vs. Xavier Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, March 21, 2025 at 9:45 p.m. ET
Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
How to watch on TV: CBS
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Fighting Illini vs Musketeers Betting Information
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline
Fighting Illini	-4.5	-108	-112	161.5	-110	-110	-192	+160

Illinois vs. Xavier Prediction

Pick ATS: Xavier (+4.5)
Pick OU: Under (161.5)
Prediction: Illinois 79, Xavier 75

Learn more about the Illinois Fighting Illini vs. the Xavier Musketeers game on FOX Sports!

Illinois vs. Xavier Betting Insights

Betting Line Implied Predictions

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Fighting Illini 83, Musketeers 78.
The Fighting Illini have a 65.8% chance to win this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability.
The Musketeers sit with a 38.5% implied probability to win.

Key Spread Facts

Illinois has put together a 16-15-0 record against the spread this season.
Xavier has covered 19 times in 33 games with a spread this season.
Illinois has an ATS record of 12-9 when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites this season.
Xavier has been an underdog by 4.5 points or more six times this season, and covered the spread in four of those matchups.

Key Total Facts

The Fighting Illini games have had more than 161.5 points scored on 13 occasions this year.
Musketeers games have had over 161.5 points nine times this year.
The Fighting Illini and Musketeers combine to average 162.1 points per contest, which is 0.6 more than the total for this game.

Key Moneyline Facts

Illinois has been the moneyline favorite 22 times this season. They've gone 16-6 in those games.
Xavier has entered the game as underdogs 12 times this season and won once.
Illinois has gone 14-5 when it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -192 or shorter (winning 73.7%).
This season, Xavier has won one of its five games when it is the underdog by at least +160 on the moneyline.

Illinois vs. Xavier: 2024-25 Stats Comparison

	Illinois	Xavier
Points Scored Per Game (Rank)	83.8 (9)	78.3 (72)
Points Allowed (Rank)	74.6 (259)	71.2 (154)
Rebounds (Rank)	11.8 (16)	6.1 (347)
3pt Made (Rank)	9.4 (46)	8.4 (101)
Assists (Rank)	15 (79)	16.9 (16)
Turnovers (Rank)	11.3 (199)	10.5 (117)

Illinois 2024-25 Key Players

Fighting Illini Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
Kasparas Jakucionis	31	15	5.6	4.6	0.9	0.3	1.6
Tomislav Ivisic	30	12.5	7.7	2.3	0.6	1	1.5
Will Riley	33	12.5	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.2	1.3
Kylan Boswell	33	11.9	4.9	3.4	1.2	0.3	0.9
Tre White	29	11	5.6	0.8	0.4	0.4	0.8

Xavier 2024-25 Key Players

Musketeers Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
Zach Freemantle	30	17.2	7	2.1	1	0.8	1
Ryan Conwell	33	16.7	2.8	2.5	1.3	0.2	3
Dailyn Swain	33	10.5	5.4	2.6	1.5	0.6	0.1
Dayvion McKnight	33	9.5	2.6	4.3	1.4	0.2	0.6
Marcus Foster	33	8	4.9	2	1	0.2	1.3