Denver Broncos

Six Points: Patriots vs. Broncos

Published Jan. 22, 2016 8:00 a.m. ET

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Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will battle for a Super Bowl spot yet again when the Denver Broncos (13-4) host the New England Patriots (13-4). Kickoff for the AFC Championship game is slated for Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium.

The reigning Super Bowl champions stuck to a familiar formula to get here. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick provide the foundation for success and a series of interchangeable players does the rest. Their title-worthy structure was only fortified by the healthy returns of receiver Julian Edelman and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Those stars will attempt to prevent Manning from a storybook late-career title. The Patriots have always been his foil; he's won only five of 16 all-time match-ups. He'll need his defense to do the same kind of heavy lifting they did for Brock Osweiler when the reserve quarterback beat New England in Week 12.

Here are three keys to the 2015 AFC Championship Game for both the Patriots and Broncos.

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PATRIOTS:

1. Establish the run

The Patriots made somewhat of "splash" move at the end of the regular season, bringing in veteran running back Steven Jackson. He's rushed for more than 11,000 yards in his career, but he's yet to find his footing in New England. On Saturday, Jackson carried it just six times for 16 yards, but that should change this week against the Broncos. Denver is No. 1 against the pass and No. 3 against the run, and while the Patriots have Brady, establishing the run is key. Giving Jackson more carries will help set up the play action and bring the linebackers in, thus opening up the field for Brady's receivers.

2. Protect Tom Brady from the pass rush

The matchup between the Broncos' pass rush and the Patriots' struggling offensive line will be one to watch. The Patriots have to find a way to protect Brady and limit DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller on the outside. There's a reason why Denver led the league with 52 sacks, and it won't bode well for New England if Brady is getting hit constantly. Using Edelman in the middle of the field on short routes speeds up the time it takes for Brady to release the ball, negating the pass rush somewhat.

3. Disrupt Peyton Manning's timing with press coverage

Manning is a timing passer. He likes to get the ball out of his hands quickly and on time. One way to disrupt that timing is by playing press coverage and bumping the receivers off their routes. It can throw off the Broncos' offense and limit big plays, too. The Patriots have the personnel to play bump-and-run with Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, and they should take advantage of it. Forcing Manning to hold onto the ball is something that will benefit New England.

BRONCOS:

1. Catch the **** ball!

Manning can't be blamed for how sluggish the Broncos looked for three quarters last weekend. He would've been well over 300 passing yards without drops from Demaryius Thomas (1), Emmanuel Sanders (2), Bennie Fowler (2), C.J. Anderson (1) and Ronnie Hillman (1). Do the math; that's seven drops added to the team's dreadful total of 31. Thomas, in particular, needs to step up for his aging quarterback. He's posted 17 drops alone in 2015.

2. Jam Julian Edelman -- but not with Chris Harris Jr.

Edelman is a one-man Broncos blitz-beater. According to Pro Football Focus, Brady averaged about half a second longer (2.13 to 2.45 seconds) in the pocket while No. 11 nursed his broken foot. Denver's star-studded secondary needs to make the Pats' slot machine work for his quick release, but it'll be tougher to do that without a fully-functional Harris Jr. (shoulder). One option: Forcing Edelman over the shallow middle, where top coverage linebacker Brandon Marshall might be able to help.

3. Keep this game close

Something magical happens when this team is up against the wall. Take last weekend as the latest example; Manning and Co. were stymied until a fumble recovery sparked them. They won the fourth quarter and, as they've done so many times before, advanced. This Broncos team is 10-3 in games decided by seven or fewer points. Keep Brady close, and it could be 11-3.