New York Islanders: Five Key Factors to Meet Expectation in 2016-17
The New York Islanders start the 2016-17 season with a single goal: conference finals or bust. From the players all the way up to ownership the thought is to improve and progress. How do the Islanders do so?
The New York Islanders made the playoffs for a second year in a row in 2015-16. And then won their first playoff series in 23 years. The team is progressing. Taking a step forward every year. The next logical step is a second round series and a conference finals appearance.
So how do the New York Islanders ensure they get there? And maybe, hopefully, fare better than their tempered expectations for 2016-17? It’s certainly no given that they make the conference finals.
The Islanders still have to get passed a grueling 82 game schedule with enough points to make it to the playoffs. Then they simply need to win two playoff series. Something that hasn’t happened to this franchise in what will then be 24 years.
Easy enough. Right? The New York Islanders find themselves in one of the more difficult divisions in the league, with the President’s Trophy winners and the Stanley Cup champions both from the Metropolitan Division. Then consider the Rangers with Alain Vigneault behind the bench. A coach that always gets his teams to the post-season. Just getting a playoff spot isn’t going to be easy.
So what are five factors that will lead to the Islanders success? How do they meet their expectation of making the Conference Finals?
Sep 7, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Team USA assistant coach Jack Capuano works on faceoffs with Team USA forwards Brandon Dubinsky (19) and Zach Parise (9) during practice for the World Cup of Hockey at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
Coaching
Head Coach Jack Capuano has been behind the New York Islanders bench for the last six years. Over those six years, the New York Islanders have gone from 27th in the league in his first year at the helm to back-to-back 100 point seasons.
It’s tough to criticize Capuano, because what Capuano is doing is working in general so far. The end (100 points) so far justifies the means. But he’s walking a fine line.
Playing players out of position, such as Strome on the wing, or favoring gritty veteran checking forwards over dynamic skilled youth are a few things Capuano is going to have to change.
As many fans have lamented in the past, 100 points might just be Capuano’s plateau. He just might not be able to take the Islanders past that 100 ceiling. More importantly, are we convinced he can get it done in the playoffs? The series win over Florida was more on Thomas Greiss’ play than Capuano’s tactical acumen.
But results are results. At worse, Capuano’s tactics haven’t been so bad to capsize the Islanders last two seasons. At best, they’ve been god enough to get season-after-season of incremental progression.
Making the playoffs is an absolute minimum for the Islanders. Missing the playoffs isn’t acceptable. A third 100 point season will almost guarantee another trip to the postseason. And Capuano has a big say in making that happen.
Missing out on playoffs or even getting to the second round might just mean Capuano is let go.
Mar 15, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; New York Islanders center Ryan Strome (18) carries the puck alongside defenseman Travis Hamonic (3) against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the first period at the CONSOL Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Strome
Ryan Strome’s play this season is going to be integral in the Islanders ability to make good on their expectations. We know John Tavares is going to light up the league with about 70-80 points again this season. So secondary scoring is going to be key for the team to build off of their captain’s heroics.
With Frans Nielsen now gone second line center duties are going to fall to Ryan Strome. In 2014-15, that wouldn’t have sounded like such a daunting proposition. That year, Strome put up 50 points and looked every bit like the 5th overall pick he was.
Fast-forward to the end of 2015-16 and giving Strome the second-line sounds very risky. His production fell off a cliff with only 28 points a year after his breakout season.
How to get Strome back to his 2014-15 is a tough question to answer. Does he need to shoot more? He had 47 fewer shots in 2015-16 to 2014-15. But then again he played 10 fewer games after being sent down to the AHL for a two-week stint.
Regardless, the organization is putting faith in Strome. They feel, that under the right circumstances, like playing him at center, he can return to his 2014-15 form. And we as fans better hope their right.
The team’s already slotted Strome alongside 2014-15 congenital hip twin Anders Lee. Both Lee and Strome formed a strong partnership in 2014-15, with Strome netting 20 of his 50 points with Lee at is side.
If the two can click once again than the loss of Frans Nielsen is going to be forgotten quickly.
Apr 20, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; New York Islanders center John Tavares (91) celebrates after scoring a power play goal against the Florida Panthers during the second period of game four of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Florida Panthers at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Power Play
The New York Islanders powerplay last season was in the lower tier of the league. With a 16.3% regular season efficiency, it ranked 17th in the league for 2015-16. Capitalizing on 42 of 229 opportunities.
The Islanders have to do a better job at taking their chances when they have the opportunity. Crafting chances at 5v5 is one story. But when they have the man advantage they need to be more efficient.
Flexibility over rigidity is going to be the key here. Instilling a 1-3-1 powerplay formation might work for a while until teams figure it out. I’m harping on coaching again, but this specific aspect of the game needs to be improved upon.
Developing good habits on the man-advantage in the regular season translates to the post-season.
Marginal differences are what set teams apart in the playoffs. Teams win series by exploiting an advantage over their opposition. And the power play is the single greatest advantage available to all teams.
The Isles are lucky to possess one of the better penalty kill ratings in the league (4th in 2015-16). When the shoe is on the other foot teams have a hard time taking advantage. Teams have to beat the Islanders 5v5
Mar 3, 2016; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; New York Islanders goalie Jaroslav Halak (41) talks with Winnipeg Jets goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31) prior to the game against the Winnipeg Jets at MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports
Goaltending
Goaltending can make or break a season. It sounds hyperbolic, but it really isn’t. Just ask the 2015-16 Columbus Blue Jackets how Sergei Bobrovski’s .836 save percentage and 3.8 goals-against-average affected their season.
Or better yet, ask a Montréal Canadiens fan how important goaltending can be. If you could vote for an injured player Carey Price would have certainly won the Hart Trophy as the most important player.
Goaltending can make or break your season. (I repeated that on purpose). For 2016-17 the Islanders are going to welcome back both Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss from the World Cup of Hockey. Both had very different tournaments.
Halak stared in net for the Europeans as they punched above their perceived weight and challenged the Canadians in the finals. Greiss, was unfortunately on the end of a 10-minute shellacking by Team North America.
As an Isles fan, I can only hope that Halak is going to bless us with the same amazing display. But Halak is coming off a season cut short due to injury. Will that extra bit of competitive hockey take it’s toll on Halak’s fragile groin?
Greiss is a capable backup but should have been challenging for the starting position this season. His .925 save percentage and 2.36 goals-against-average last season was a revelation after Halak went out with injury.
But 10 minutes with the Europeans as they tinkered with their strategy and the narrative totally changed. Greiss is going to have to once again prove himself. And he’ll get his chances this season.
The regular season was condensed this year due to the World Cup of Hockey. Meaning the breaks between games have been shortened compared to 2015-16. To make sure Halak doesn’t go down with injury again, Greiss is going to get his fair share of starts.
If both can put up average starter numbers (.917 SV% and 2.41 GAA) the Isles are definitely in good shape to get that 100 points and push for a conference final appearance.
Apr 4, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; New York Islanders center Casey Cizikas (53) and left wing Matt Martin (17) help right wing Cal Clutterbuck (15) off the ice after an injury during the second period against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The 4th Line
What was once dubbed the best fourth line in hockey is no more. Longtime Islanders Matt Martin left for the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency.
His departure will likely dramatically change what the Islanders fourth line is going to be deployed for. Martin represents the biggest hitter in the league. Not in terms of the viciousness of his hits, but just in terms of volumes. Over the last three seasons, Martin lead the league in hits by a healthy margin.
We still have Cal Clutterbuck who isn’t shy to lay the body. But losing Martin and then bringing in Jason Chimera changes the dynamic of the line.
Chimera is a deceptively speedy winger with a scoring mentality. I say deceptive, not because players don’t recognize his speed. It’s because Chimera is 37. He shouldn’t be speedy anymore.
And therein lays the risk for the fourth line. Jason Chimera is at an age where his productive and physical assets might just vanish at any point.
Last season Chimera scored 40 points, a great haul for anyone on a fourth line. But Chimera’s been up-and-down with production over the last few years. And 2016-17 is on schedule for a down year.
It’s not that Chimera isn’t a physical player, but he isn’t Matt Martin. Producing less that 20 points would be disappointing. Martin produced 19 points in 2015-16 and still lead the league in hits.
All of these factors need to perform next season if the Islanders are at the very least make the first hurdle: making the playoffs. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen, but secondary scoring throughout the lineup, a competent powerplay, and smart coaching should take the Islanders to where they want to be in 2016-17.
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