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NFL Week 3 Picks: Survivor Pool Stone Cold Locks

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Which team should you pick in your NFL Week 3 survivor pool? Allow me to illuminate a few options.

Last week, I went 3-0 with my stone cold locks. The Denver Broncos took the Indianapolis Colts to the woodshed with a 34-20 thrashing. The Carolina Panthers ravaged the San Francisco 49ers, comfortably covering the 13.5 point spread. Finally, the Arizona Cardinals plundered the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This week, there are some very tempting choices for stone cold locks. How can the Houston Texans not be heavily favored over the New England Patriots when the Pats have a third-string rookie starting at quarterback? It would be a major statement for the Pats and maybe an even bigger statement about the Texans if New England wins. After betting against Jimmy G in Week 1, I’m steering clear of defying Jacoby Brissett.

At first glance, Green Bay seems like a lock over Detroit at Lambeau. But remember the Lions beating the Pack 18-16 on their home turf last November? Before that, the Packers were 9-0 at home against Detroit since 2005. After Green Bay’s loss to the Vikings on Sunday night, many thought Aaron Rodgers has lost a step, claiming he’s overrated. WIth that much doubt, how can you confidently choose the Pack?

Both the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks are favored by a touchdown or more. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the dogs in those two cases. If the Vikings lost to the Packers last week, the Panthers are a no-brainer. But, with Sam Bradford taking snaps, Minnesota’s got a new dynamic. The Seahawks don’t look like Super Bowl contenders. The NFC West is nuts. With that kind of volatility and instability, why risk it?

And, so, we’re on to my stone cold locks for your NFL Week 3 survivor pool…trying to find the right values.

Arizona Cardinals Over Buffalo Bills

Again, Neal? Again?!? Yup. This is my third week in a row picking ‘Zona. The Cardinals knew they let one get away vs. New England in Week 1 and they took out their frustrations on the Bucs in Week 2. One could argue this is a trap game for the Redbirds. Their next “strong” opponent is the New York Jets in Week 6. The Cards could be looking past Buffalo to their back-to-back divisional games against the Rams and 49ers. I’m just not buying it.

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Things might be different if this game were in December when the Buffalo cold takes hold of you and doesn’t let go. Instead, we have a late September game when apple picking is coming into season. One factor in Buffalo’s favor of the Bills is they’re undefeated against the Cardinals at home having gone 3-0. Plus, the Bills have won five of their last six against the Cards.

The Bills defense got torched by the Jets in a Thursday night contest while the offense now has a new coordinator after Greg Roman got fired. That type of upheaval can’t be a positive heading into a must-win game. However, Buffalo has the benefit of a few extra days to prep for Carson Palmer and Co. since they last played on Thursday night.

Very surprising to see the Cards are only favored by 4.5 points by Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys Over Chicago Bills

Da Bears. Woof. Chicago lost Jay Cutler for a few weeks due to a sprained thumb and Lamarr Houston for the year to a torn ACL in their embarrassing loss to the Eagles at home on Monday night. Defensive tackle Eddie Goldman will miss four weeks with a high ankle sprain while linebacker Danny Trevathan is having surgery to repair his thumb. Kyle Fuller, Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan are all questionable. That’s five or six starters gone on defense.

Chicago’s offensive line is a mess. Jeremy Langford has been ineffective and was losing touches to Ka’Deem Carey before Carey hurt his hamstring. Now, it looks like Chicago’s fifth-round draft pick, Jordan Howard, might see an increased workload. Brian Hoyer has shown he can compete and win as a starter, but can he stretch the field enough to keep the Cowboys defense guessing?

Speaking of the Cowboys D, this is the game they needed to get their minds right. Not to say they haven’t been playing well, but this is their opportunity to unleash hell. It’s a confidence booster and could be a chance to experiment, try different looks.

Ezekiel Elliott should eat up chunks of yardage. Dak Prescott should have plenty of time off the play-action to take shots down the field to Dez Bryant. Jason Witten should also have a day.

Dallas is favored by seven points.

Miami Dolphins Over Cleveland Browns

I almost didn’t include this lock. It’s the iffiest of my three picks and I’m not entirely sure why, but let’s explore.

Miami almost stole a win from the Seahawks in Seattle. Then, the ‘Fins knocked out Jimmy Garoppolo and fought back from a 31-3 deficit to come within a score of tying the Pats in Foxboro with a little more than six minutes left in the game. Part of me thinks the Dolphins don’t get enough credit. Despite losing a bunch of talent, new head coach Adam Gase has them competing.

So, what’s rubbing me the wrong way about Miami giving 9.5 points to Cleveland at home? The Browns lost to the Eagles in Philly by a couple scores then got out to an early lead at home against the Ravens before letting that slip away. No RG3, no Josh McCown for the Browns at quarterback. Instead, 2016 third-round draft pick Cody Kessler makes his first NFL start. That should all add up to a cakewalk for Miami, no?

My insecurity fades away once I see that the Browns offense and defense are ranked among the worst in the league. Miami should force a couple fumbles and secure their first win if Ryan Tannehill can avoid throwing interceptions.

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