National Football League

NFL odds: Why you should wait on Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Updated Aug. 18, 2022 6:46 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Caution: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be in trouble

A month ago, I loved the idea of waiting for Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds (+800) to lengthen. The advice was simple: The early schedule is a rugged gauntlet, but by October the team would round into form and the books would offer a much better price at some point in the interim.

Granted, the same holds true a week into the preseason, but I’m a little less bullish on the Bucs. Injuries are mounting on the offensive line and there’s not much room for error. In fact, I believe Tampa Bay’s control of the NFC South could be in jeopardy.

Do you think I’m overreacting?

The only place in the pocket Tom Brady doesn’t like pressure is up the middle. The seven-time Super Bowl champ has effortlessly handled edge rushers for 20 years, quickly unloading to slot receivers and tight ends. But when pressured up the middle, his QB rating has historically been at its lowest.

Now, consider this.

Last year, the Bucs had three Pro Bowl offensive linemen; at this moment, they’ll have three new starters on the offensive line going into week one — all of whom play in the middle.

Uh Oh.

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How will Brady handle playing without injured star center Ryan Jensen? His backup, Robert Hainsey, a second-year pro out of Notre Dame, is transitioning to center from tackle and has not started an NFL game.

Replacing retired left guard Ali Market might be Aaron Stinnie, a fifth-year undrafted pro out of James Madison who has started one game in his career.

The third new starter, Shaq Mason, is familiar with Brady from their time in New England. Reuniting with Mason is great, but with two newbies alongside him, Tom should be very concerned.

The Bucs open up against Dallas, which should be a win, but their next three opponents are loaded on the defensive line and Tampa is going to get pushed around in the trenches.

Week 2 brings the Saints, who have dominated Tom Brady the last two years, pressuring him en route to four wins in five games.

The Packers, their Week 3 opponent, boast arguably the best front seven in football, and, on paper, might be the best defense in the NFL.

In Week 4, the Chiefs come to town with a beefed-up pass rush that finds All-Pro DT Chris Jones back at his natural position.

After a Week 5 breather against Atlanta, the Tampa offensive line will face Pittsburgh’s loaded defensive front.

Those first six weeks are brutal!

Compounding the offensive line woes, Brady’s receiving corps is diluted. Antonio Brown walked off the field and onto the stage at Rolling Loud to do his dance. Chris Godwin is coming off surgery and probably won’t be available until late September. Newly-signed Russell Gage already has a leg injury, which has limited reps with Brady. Star Mike Evans has another hamstring injury.

Seriously, Brady could start the season working with receivers like Cyril Grayson and Scotty Miller in the slot. No disrespect to the G.O.A.T., but it’s tough to make a dollar out of 15 cents.

A 2-4 start heading into a must-win game at Carolina is a very real possibility. Why would a divisional game against a team Brady has crushed the last two years matter so much? Because in Weeks 8 and 9, the Ravens and Rams take trips to Florida, and they won’t be there for the sunshine.

So to wrap it up, you have a new head coach, a 45-year-old QB taking personal leave after already retiring for a month, a slew of questions on the offensive line and a hobbled receiving corps. If you still think Tampa can win the Super Bowl, hold off on placing those bets for now. Let the odds lengthen a little because Tampa’s got some work to do.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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