NFL, CFB Weekend Betting Recap: 'We Survived a Bad Day'

On any given NFL Sunday, the bookmakers’ day comes down to who wins the Sunday night game. Ditto for the public betting masses.

Why? Because any moneyline parlays that are still live will inevitably run to the Sunday night favorite, especially a favorite that’s popular with the public betting masses — like, say, the Chiefs, as was the case in NFL Week 14 odds.

Said Casey Degnon, risk manager at The SuperBook in Las Vegas: "Bettors were lined up on the Chiefs at home, in a must-win spot."

By now, you know how that went.

More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.

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Crumbling Kansas City

Through 13 games, the Chiefs are 6-7 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). The latest setback might be the nail in the coffin for a playoff bid, for a team that’s played in the last seven AFC Championship Games, going to five Super Bowls and winning three of them.

In Week 14, Kansas City battled it out with Houston, but didn’t have enough in a 20-10 loss as a 4.5-point home favorite. 

Bookmakers were hardly lamenting the Chiefs’ misfortune.

"That game was the difference between winning or losing on the day," SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said. "Texans outright and Under 41.5 was our best result. It was not a great day, but we survived a bad day."

BetMGM one-upped The SuperBook off that Texans result. Pregame, trading manager Tristan Davis said: "It’s been a good day for the book. A Houston win would make it a great day."

And so it was, at least at BetMGM.

Give and Take

Caesars Sports had more of a back-and-forth day. Bettors did particularly well backing the surprising Seahawks, who are the best team at covering the spread in the league at 10-3. Bettors also did well backing the Packers.

Seattle trampled the Falcons 37-9, outscoring Atlanta 31-3 in the second half, after a dull first half ended in a 6-6 tie. The Seahawks were 6.5-point road favorites.

Green Bay held off the Bears 28-21, clinching the win when cornerback Keisean Nixon picked off a Caleb Williams pass in the end zone with 22 seconds left. So the Pack narrowly covered as 6.5-point home favorites.

"The Seahawks continue to quietly dominate on both sides of the ball, and that consistency hasn’t gone unnoticed by our customers," Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said. "Seattle’s blowout win over Atlanta was one of the most popular picks among bettors.

"The Packers were one of the more popular selections in the [late] slate, drawing strong support from bettors."

The Bills also got there for Caesars customers or at least those who jumped on in-game markets, as Buffalo trailed the Bengals well into the fourth quarter.

"Although Buffalo didn’t manage to cover their spread (-6), they were a strong favorite in our in-game markets, drawing plenty of live betting interest," Feazel said.

The Bills rallied to beat Cincy 39-34, spurred by a 40-yard Josh Allen touchdown run, followed by a Christian Benford 63-yard interception return for a TD, then an A.J. Epenesa interception on the next play from scrimmage, leading to another TD.

In 4:30, Buffalo went from trailing 28-18 to leading 39-28.

But Caesars got some money back — as did every sportsbook — on the Saints’ 24-20 upset as 8.5-point road underdogs vs. the Buccaneers. Ditto for the Steelers’ 27-22 road upset as 5.5-point ‘dogs vs. the Ravens. 

Those two outcomes took down countless moneyline parlays.

Double Bad Beat

NFL Week 14 odds provided one no-doubt bad beat: Broncos 24, Raiders 17.

Denver was an 8.5-point road favorite and led 24-14 with just 1:04 remaining, after turning the ball over on downs at Las Vegas’ 28-yard line. A Broncos win was fairly secure.

What wasn’t secure? The spread and the total.

In the waning seconds, QB Kenny Pickett hit Tyler Lockett on a 26-yard pass, taking the Raiders to Denver’s 33-yard line. That should’ve been it, as Vegas had no timeouts left, and there likely wasn’t enough time to scramble a field-goal unit onto the field.

But Broncos safety Brandon Jones was called for delay of game, stopping the clock and moving the ball to Denver’s 28. Daniel Carlson then booted a 46-yard field goal as time expired, accounting for the 24-17 final.

Not only did the Raiders cover the spread with that kick, but the Over hit as well, on a total of 40.5. Anyone with Broncos -8.5 or the Under got smacked.

Bookmakers certainly enjoyed the Raiders’ decision to kick an otherwise meaningless field goal.

"Pete Caroll kicking that field goal helped quite a bit," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. "I wasn’t really watching, because I had no confidence in the Raiders scoring. I figured we were gonna lose that game."

But the Raiders gift-wrapped a win for the oddsmakers, prompting Andrews to post on X: "Where do we send that fruit basket to Pete Carroll?"

On Campus

College football conference championship odds fell in favor of the public betting masses through much of the day Saturday. BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said blowout wins from Texas Tech (34-7 over BYU) and Georgia (28-7 over Alabama) padded bettors’ bankrolls.

But Saturday night’s Big Ten showdown on FOX completely turned the tables. All the moneyline parlays were running to No. 1 Ohio State, which lost to No. 2 Indiana 13-10.

"It was one of the best college football days of the year for the house," Magee said. "Indiana outright over Ohio State looks like the biggest result this season. Honestly, Indiana over Ohio State is up there as one of, if not the biggest single-game results of the year for BetMGM.

"A lot of parlays died in Indianapolis on Saturday night. And Duke outright over Virginia was also a huge winner for the book."

The Blue Devils, 3.5-point underdogs, outlasted the Cavaliers 27-20 in overtime to win the ACC title game.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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