Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Picks for Thursday Night Football

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In a matchup of two division rivals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) will face off against the Atlanta Falcons (4-9). The Buccaneers are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -4.5). The expected point total for the matchup is 44.5.

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Lines

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction & Pick

Tampa Bay enters tonight’s matchup against Atlanta in control of the NFC South and looking to build on its 7-6 record. The Buccaneers are favored by 4.5 points and have found a rhythm offensively with Baker Mayfield leading the way. Tampa Bay has leaned on efficient quarterback play and timely scoring during its push atop the division.

Atlanta continues to struggle at 4-9, including a 2-5 mark on the road. The Falcons have been outgained in several recent games, and their offense has lacked consistency. The absence of key playmakers such as Drake London has made it even more difficult for Atlanta to sustain drives.

Defensively, Tampa Bay has been a strength. Tykee Smith, Lavonte David and SirVocea Dennis headline a unit that has generated pressure all season, recording 43 sacks. That front poses a challenge for an Atlanta offense that relies heavily on Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts to create explosive plays.

With Tampa Bay’s defensive momentum and a steadier offensive profile, the Buccaneers are positioned well heading into this divisional matchup.

• Pick ATS: Buccaneers (-4.5)
• Pick OU: Over (44.5)
• Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Falcons 18

Prediction provided by FOX Sports' Sports AI. Download the FOX Sports App for free access to Sports AI.

How to Watch Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta

• Game date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• Location: Tampa, Florida
• TV: Amazon Prime Video
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Atlanta has tallied three wins versus Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay has been outpaced by 7 points in its last five tilts versus Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Betting Info

• Tampa Bay is 5-8-0 against the spread this year.
• The Buccaneers have been favored by 4.5 points or more three times this season, and covered the spread in one of those matchups.
• Tampa Bay games in 2025 have eclipsed the over/under seven times in 13 opportunities (53.8%).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Buccaneers are 5-2, winning 71.4% of the time.
• The implied probability in this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Buccaneers a 70.4% chance to win.

Buccaneers Stats

Tampa Bay's Key Players

Offense

• Baker Mayfield has 2,722 passing yards through 13 games this year, averaging 209.4 per game with a 61.6% completion percentage and 20 touchdowns (10th in the NFL) against six interceptions.
• To go along with his passing stats, Mayfield has 285 rushing yards (fourth on the Buccaneers), with one rushing touchdown.
• Emeka Egbuka has caught 54 passes on 110 targets for 806 total yards and six touchdowns. He is averaging 4.2 catches and 62.0 yards per game through 13 games.
• Rachaad White's output on the ground this season includes 474 yards and four TDs. He is averaging 36.5 yards per game and 4.1 per attempt (26th in the NFL).
• White has 33 catches, 172 yards and zero TDs through the air.
• In the ground game, Bucky Irving averages 3.4 yards per attempt (46th in the NFL) and 58.8 yards per game for 353 total rushing yards. He has recorded one rushing touchdown this season.
• Irving has been targeted 24 times and turned those targets into 23 catches, 239 yards and three TDs.

Defense

• On defense for the Buccaneers, Tykee Smith has put up 90 tackles, 6.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception in 2025.
• Lavonte David has 89 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one interception this season.
• SirVocea Dennis has recorded 83 tackles, 7.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception this year.
• Antoine Winfield Jr. has 1.0 sack in addition to his 4.0 TFL, 68 tackles, and two interceptions this year.

Atlanta Betting Info

• Atlanta has put together a 6-7-0 record against the spread this season.
• The Falcons are 3-1 ATS when underdogs by 4.5 points or more this season.
• Atlanta's games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this year.
• The Falcons have been underdogs in eight games this season and won three (37.5%) of those contests.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 33.9% chance of a victory for the Falcons.

Falcons Stats

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

• Bijan Robinson averages 83.2 rushing yards per game this year (1,081 total yards to rank fourth in the NFL), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
• Robinson's contributions include 56 receptions (4.3 per game) on 70 targets for 602 yards (46.3 per game) and two receiving touchdowns.
• Drake London has put together a 2025 campaign that includes 60 catches for 810 yards and six receiving touchdowns over nine games played. He has been on the receiving end of 94 targets and is averaging 6.7 receptions per game.
• Tyler Allgeier is averaging 29.1 rushing yards per game this season (378 total yards), while scoring eight rushing touchdowns.
• Kyle Pitts has 62 catches for 631 yards and one receiving touchdown. He averages 4.8 yards per game through 13 games and has been targeted 85 times.

Defense

• Kaden Elliss has recorded 3.5 sacks (fifth on the Falcons) to go with 9.0 TFL, 88 tackles, and one interception through 13 games in 2025.
• DeAundre Alford's stats include one interception as well as 47 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and nine passes defended.
• Jessie Bates III has recorded 1.0 TFL, 77 tackles, and two interceptions in the 2025 season.
• Xavier Watts' season stats include 68 tackles and three interceptions through 13 games. He is third on the Falcons in tackles.

FOX Sports used technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar to create this story.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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