2025 NFL Week 15 Picks: Best Bets for Every Game — Will's Wagers

One of the more unpredictable NFL seasons in recent memory is about to hit the home stretch. 

With just four weeks left, all the byes are over and done with, and the race for the playoffs intensifies with each game. To illustrate how unusual this season has been, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow might all miss the playoffs, while Philip Rivers might be in the playoffs. 

To go a step further, there are two teams currently on 10-game winning streaks in Denver and New England … and both underdogs at home this week. 

With that said, ahead of Week 15, let’s take a look at every game and find a best bet for each.

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FALCONS @ BUCCANEERS

Under 44 combined points scored

I’ve been saying for weeks now that the Baker Mayfield who was an MVP candidate early in the season, hasn’t been seen in quite some time. Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense have declined, while the Falcons come off of a loss to Seattle that was 6-6 at halftime before it got blown open. These teams met in Week 1 with the Buccaneers winning 23-20. A similar result Thursday night would not surprise me.

BILLS @ PATRIOTS

Josh Allen Over 35.5 rushing yards

Any hope the Bills have of winning the AFC East starts with winning in Foxboro on Sunday. In what should be a cold, snowy day when temperatures are expected to be in the 20s, Josh Allen calling his own number might be the best option the Bills have in key moments. Allen ran for 78 yards last week against the Bengals. Look for another big game on the ground.

JETS @ JAGUARS

Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions 

We are less than two weeks away from Christmas and the Jets' defense still has not recorded an interception. Lawrence has thrown 11 of them so far this year, and can be daring with his throws at times. At plus money, the Jets are bound to end the longest streak in NFL history. 

BROWNS @ BEARS

Caleb Williams Under 29.5 pass attempts

This is all about the weather. Temperatures are expected to be in single digits on Sunday, with winds up to 20 miles per hour. As a heavy favorite, and facing a rookie quarterback, I expect the Bears to lean heavily on their effective running game.

RAVENS @ BENGALS

Lamar Jackson Over 30.5 rushing yards 

I’ve been betting against Jackson’s rushing prop for several weeks, with the belief that the two-time MVP wasn’t healthy. Last week, Jackson finally showed glimpses of hope that perhaps the injuries were healing, as he ran seven times for 43 yards and a touchdown, his highest rushing tally since Week 4. This Bengals' defense just gave up 78 rushing yards to Josh Allen. I think Jackson continues to use his legs more and goes over this number.

CARDINALS @ TEXANS

Cardinals +9.5

Everyone is seemingly falling in love with the Texans, and rightfully so, as their elite defense has them looking like a threat to make a run in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were just embarrassed by the Rams in what is officially a lost season. It’s counter-intuitive, but in the NFL, this is usually a good time to buy low. The Texans are still a mediocre offense, while the Cardinals are a middle of the pack defense. Plus, 9.5 points is a lot. I’ll say the Cards keep it close.

RAIDERS @ EAGLES

Under 38.5 combined points scored

It looks like Kenny Pickett will get the start at quarterback for the Raiders against his former team. The Eagles’ defense is playing fairly well, while the offense is still a mess. Expect points to be hard to come by.

CHARGERS @ CHIEFS

Chiefs -5.5

I think we get one more week of "Can the Chiefs make a run?" discussions. The Chargers won last week due to creating five turnovers, but a depleted offensive line, combined with quarterback Justin Herbert playing with a hand injury, will make for a rough day in frigid Kansas City.

COMMANDERS @ GIANTS

Longest field goal made Under 49.5 yards

The forecast for Sunday shows temperatures in the 20s with some snow and wind. Poor kicking conditions, combined with two teams who have cycled through multiple kickers this season, make it unlikely we see many long attempts, and makes, in this one. 

COLTS @ SEAHAWKS

Colts team total Under 14.5 points 

It will be either rookie Riley Leonard making his first career start under center for the Colts, or 44-year-old Phil Rivers making his first start since January 2021. Either way, it will be a tough assignment for the visitors to get on the scoreboard here against the Seahawks and that outstanding defense.

PACKERS @ BRONCOS 

Packers -2.5

The Broncos have been winning close games and beating up bad teams en route to a 10-game winning streak. I think that ends this week against a well-balanced Packers team that is much better than the ones the Broncos have been facing.  

TITANS @ 49ERS

Cam Ward Over 190.5 passing yards

In a game where the Titans are 12.5 point underdogs, Ward will likely be throwing the ball often. The 49ers are 25th in the league against the pass, allowing 236 yards per game through the air.

LIONS @ RAMS

Lions +6

As dominant as the Rams have been, their defense has given up 31 points to the Panthers and 33 to the Eagles (six of those were on special teams). They also haven’t been tested against the best offenses in the league, beating up on the likes of the Saints, Titans and the Ravens without Lamar Jackson. The Lions have an elite offense that leads the league in yards per play and points per game.

PANTHERS @ SAINTS

Saints +2.5

The Panthers are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They’ve been a good story, but laying points on the road against the scrappy Saints has me looking toward the underdog.

VIKINGS @ COWBOYS

Jake Ferguson anytime TD scorer

The Vikings feature a blitz-heavy approach on defense that leaves them susceptible to defending tight ends over the middle of the field. With CeeDee Lamb uncertain to play, look for Ferguson to have an increased role on Sunday night.

DOLPHINS @ STEELERS

Steelers -3

With temperatures in the teens expected, this weather favors the home Steelers. We’ve seen the Dolphins and their quarterback Tua Tagavailoa play poorly in cold weather. I expect similar struggles in this one. 

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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