NFL Confidential: Scouts Say Arch Manning Would Be No. 1 QB in 2026 Draft

A year ago, when NFL scouts and executives pondered a potentially strong class of quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft, they all seemed to agree on one thing: The head of the class would clearly be Arch Manning.

One year later, it looks like Manning will probably stay in school and return to Texas for his junior season. But if he does change his mind in the next month and declare for the draft instead, he might still end up as the top pick.

"He might still go No. 1 [overall]," one college area scout told me recently. "All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic. He might need a little time to grow into himself as a player. But he’s got the size (6-foot-4, 219 pounds), the arm, the intangibles, and the kid had some great games.

"I think I’d still feel better about his future than anyone else in this year’s class."

Not everyone agrees with that lofty assessment after an unexpectedly shaky first season as a starter, but there seems to be a consensus that the 21-year-old Manning would be a "first-round lock," as one NFL executive told me. In fact, I spoke with three college scouts and two executives and all of them said Manning would absolutely go in the first round if he declared for the draft next April, and three said he would unquestionably be the first quarterback off the board.

And the reason is simple. 

"Talent," an executive for an NFC team told me. "He never lost that. It’s what all the hype was about from the beginning, and it’s still there. It’s not alarming that he was inconsistent in his first year as a starter in the SEC. It’s perfectly normal. The expectations were probably way too high, anyway.

"But his arm, his head, his feet, his overall ability. I can still see every bit of it."

Arch Manning has a major decision to make in the coming month. Will he stay or go? (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

The hype for Manning was undeniably huge heading into 2025, with expectations ranging from winning a national championship and the Heisman Trophy and being one-and-done as the No. 1 pick in the draft. It comes with the territory in his remarkable gene pool, as the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and the grandson of Archie.

That hype tapered off early, though, especially when he threw for just 170 yards and looked especially shaky in a season-opening loss at Ohio State and followed that up with an alarming 11 of 25, 114-yard performance against UTEP two weeks later.

But as the season progressed, his performance improved. He had his share of huge games (346 yards and three touchdowns at Mississippi State, 327 yards and three touchdowns versus Vanderbilt, 389 yards and four touchdowns at Arkansas), and even engineered a season-ending, 27-17 upset of unbeaten Texas A&M (he was 14 of 29 for 179 yards and a touchdown, and he ran for 53 yards and a touchdown, too).

"There was obvious improvement as the season went along," a scout for an AFC team told me. "It wasn’t always easy to tell because his offensive line was shaky, and they had trouble running the ball. But you could tell he doesn’t panic. His ball placement was off at times, but not a lot. And that improved, too."

"If you forget what you expected at the beginning of the season, you’ll see a really good prospect," another scout told me. "I’m sure some are disappointed. But you’ll only feel that way if you’re measuring him against what you thought he was supposed to be."

Joel Klatt weighs in on when Arch Manning will be ready for the NFL

It helps the case for Manning that NFL scouts and executives are generally down on the current quarterback class. There appears to be only one true consensus top 10 pick — Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Maybe Oregon’s Dante Moore could be a top-10 pick, too, though most seem to think he would benefit by spending another year in college — maybe even more so than Manning would.

Overall, the scouts I talked to described Manning’s performance this season as "erratic" and "inconsistent," though generally good. He completed 61.4% of his passes in 12 regular-season starts, throwing for 2,942 yards with 24 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He also ran for 244 yards and eight touchdowns, leading the Longhorns to a No. 14 ranking in the final regular-season AP poll and a trip to the Citrus Bowl, where they’ll play Michigan on New Year's Eve.

Not bad at all, overall, but still well below the preseason expectations. But there was definitely enough there to "see a future star," as one assistant general manager told me.

"It might be hard to take him really high if you need a quarterback right now, because he just didn’t look ready for the NFL to me," the assistant general manager said. "But he will be. If you can afford a year or two to let him grow, maybe let him sit behind a veteran and learn like Patrick Mahomes did [in Kansas City] and Jordan Love [did in Green Bay], the payoff could be absolutely huge."

Manning's play improved as this season progressed, with more of his dual-threat ability being put on display. (Photo by The University of Texas Athletics/University Images via Getty Images)

Most of the teams up near the top of the draft that need a quarterback probably need one to be ready sooner rather than later — the Las Vegas Raiders (currently projected to pick second), New York Jets (7th), Arizona Cardinals (8th) and maybe even the Cleveland Browns (4th) and the New Orleans Saints (5th) come to mind. Perhaps the best fit for Manning, though, would be a team like the Los Angeles Rams, who have two first-round picks (including the current No. 9 overall selection) and a need to think about a future beyond Matthew Stafford, their 37-year-old starter.

"If [Manning] comes out, you just know [Rams coach Sean] McVay would try to move up to get him, so he could sit him behind Stafford for a year," the executive said. "And if that happens, we should all just quit."

There will probably be no need for that. Though Manning has until Jan. 14 to declare for the draft, all indications are that he will return to Texas for at least one more season. One source close to the Manning family said no one should be surprised if he follows in the footsteps of his famous uncles and stays in school until his eligibility runs out.

That would make him a part of the 2028 class, though all five NFL sources I spoke to said they anticipate Manning is more likely to declare for the 2027 draft.

Whenever he turns pro, though, one thing seems certain: His stock will be enhanced by being the fourth member of the First Family of Quarterbacks — maybe enough to be drafted in the same slot as his uncles. 

"He’ll be the first quarterback taken and a possible first overall pick whenever he decides to come out," the NFL executive told me. "Don’t underestimate the power of the Manning name. Some franchise would be thrilled to dive into that gene pool."

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.