National Basketball Association

The NBA playoffs' weird, wide-open West

Updated Apr. 10, 2023 3:23 p.m. ET

Seedings in sports are their own type of special shorthand.

They're supposed to be an indicator of ability and a promise of potential and mostly they are, except there are times, like right now in the NBA's Western Conference, when the digit next to the name is an utterly misleading source and a sneaky distraction from what's really going on.

LeBron James doesn't often look or act like an underdog, and he and the Los Angeles Lakers aren't going to feel like a typical one, assuming they survive the treachery of the play-in tournament and take their place in the postseason bracket.

Same goes for Stephen Curry and the defending champion Golden State Warriors, a No. 6 seed that will head to its first-round series against the No. 3 Sacramento Kings as a heavy favorite to advance, and a popular pick to carry on advancing.

"I don't see a team who can beat us in a seven-game series when we're healthy," Warriors guard Klay Thompson told reporters. A reminder, if one was needed, that Golden State will walk and talk like a team that's won four of the last eight NBA titles, not one that was just a few games away from missing the playoffs altogether.

It has been a peculiar old season in the West. The league has been the tale of two conferences, with the East essentially turning into an 82-game flex for its Big Three of Boston, Milwaukee and Philadelphia.

On the left-hand side of the country, the struggles of the most storied franchises has opened up plenty of possibilities for others, while for much of the campaign you could throw a blanket over the teams from fourth through 12th.

The Denver Nuggets started strong and didn't let up behind the incessant productivity of Nikola Jokić. In Memphis, Ja Morant's off-court issues aside, the Grizzlies have been a dynamic force that operates with dazzling pace and effervescent youthfulness.

The Kings have been one of the most enjoyable stories of the year, returning to elimination basketball after an interminable wait of 16 years thanks in no small part to the fact that De'Aaron Fox is worth the price of admission alone, pretty much any night.

So what now? Will the feel-good stories of optimism and smooth sailing continue to flourish? Or, as so many expect, will the likes of the Warriors and the Lakers come to the fore, having taken all that time to figure out their problems?

The Lakers began the year dismally, never found much of a rhythm while Russell Westbrook and his uncertain role were around, saw the campaign overshadowed by James' chase of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career points record, had to manage Anthony Davis' load, then lost James to a foot injury – and it all looked to be falling apart.

However, the enforced layoff turned out to be a blessing, James' teammates learned to play without him, D'Angelo Russell was a positive addition, and after James came back motivated and bristling, the Lakers now have the look of a team that no one wants to face.

If they win play-in tournament's 7-8 matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night, it will push the Lakers into an opening round tussle with the Grizzlies, an intriguing scrap where Morant would relish the chance to show why he is one of the league's individual gems and James would try to tell him to wait his turn.

Rudy Gobert swings at Kyle Anderson during a huddle in T-Wolves win

Shannon Sharpe decides how much he blames Gobert for the conflict.

"We shouldn't be comfortable," James told reporters, after L.A. closed out its regular season slate having won nine of 11 games. "We have to stay on edge and get ready for the game."

The Warriors have been dismal on the road and near unstoppable at home, with sloppiness infiltrating their play for long stretches. However, FOX Bet has them as the fourth-favorite at +750 to win the title, a reflection of their pedigree and big-game mentality, with Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green having been there and done it countless times before.

Only once has a 6-seed or lower ever won an NBA championship, the Houston Rockets of Hakeem Olajuwon's influence, in 1995.

"We've always been a team that lives on the edge," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said. "We're a little wild, a little chaotic, but we've thrived in that chaos for many years."

The oddsmakers certainly aren't putting much stock in the standings, with the Lakers seen as likelier champs than the Grizzlies, the No. 1 Nuggets sixth overall, and the Kings way down the list.

It is enough of a jumble that the chalk isn't really the chalk at all and home advantage and a far better regular-season record isn't particularly powerful currency.

The NBA is a numbers game, but even more so it is a game of timing. And, history tells us, a game of star power, which is why the big names are looming large, whatever the seedings say.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.

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