National Basketball Association

NBA Stretch Run: This Season Promises More Turmoil Than Most

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 10:40 p.m. ET

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Jan 22, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Denver Nuggets 111-108. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

As the calendar flips to February, most NBA teams still have plenty to play for. With all but a few teams alive for the NBA Playoffs, competition promises to be fierce down the stretch of the season.

By the time February hits, most NBA teams have already settled into the tiers they will inhabit at year’s end. The postseason bracket is close to complete, the seeding is mostly worked out, and those teams heading for the lottery can make moves at the trade deadline sure of their fate.

In a recent piece for ESPN, Tom Haberstroh spoke on this reality from a statistical point of view, unpacking the data to show how unlikely it is for the standings to shake up over the back half of the season.

He stated that 80 percent of the standings can be locked in on Jan. 20, based on data compiled over 36 seasons.

For teams outside of the postseason, the passes in are often limited. Haberstroh writes that over the last 10 seasons, less than two teams slated for the lottery on Jan. 20 will make it into the postseason by mid-April.

Last season, only the Charlotte Hornets made the leap as the other 15 teams remained locked in place.

Fortunately for NBA fans, this season promises to be very different from the norm. Twenty-five teams have at least a 5 percent chance of making the postseason (per FiveThirtyEight.com) and the next two teams have Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis to give them hope of a stretch run.

Conversely. only 12 of the 16 teams currently holding playoff positions have an 80 percent or better chance of making the postseason. Of those 12, all but one have a lot of work to do to lock up their current place as a seeding.

The drama is thickest out West, where six teams can all lay claim to just one playoff berth.

Jan 5, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) and Sacramento Kings forward DeMarcus Cousins (15) fight for the loose ball during the overtime period at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeat the Kings 117-116 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Western Conference Playoff Race

The Western Conference may have seven teams all but locks for the postseason, but the inability of an eighth team to seize control leaves nearly the entire conference alive.

While the team that eventually makes it will be served up on a platter for the Golden State Warriors, making the postseason gives teams playoff experience and increased revenue. It’s a goal these teams will be striving for, making the final months an exciting time.

The Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and New Orleans Pelicans are each within two wins of the eighth-place Denver Nuggets, while the Dallas Mavericks are only four wins back and are 6-3 over their last nine games after defeating the San Antonio Spurs Sunday night.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are just 3.5 games back and boast the best point differential of the group at minus-0.7. They are on a hot streak of their own, 7-3 over their last 10 games. This includes victories over the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

The best part of the jockeying in the West is how many star players are involved. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are both All-Stars, while Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns are playing at that level and should join that group officially before too long.

Dallas has Dirk Nowitzki, a 13-time NBA All-Star and former MVP.

Oct 26, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and Charlotte Hornets guard Nicolas Batum (5) reach for the loose ball during the second quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Eastern Conference Playoff Race

In the Eastern Conference, more than just a single berth is up in the air. While the top five teams seemed locked into place, no team currently sixth place or lower looks assured of a postseason berth.

While the Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, and Chicago Bulls are currently holding tickets, there’s a lot of basketball to be played before those tickets are punched.

Both the Pacers and Bulls boast a negative point differential, while Milwaukee lurks in ninth place with a positive ranking. Both the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons stand just behind the Bucks, each still bearing the characteristics that made them popular preseason playoff selections.

Each of those six teams is holding at least a 20 percent chance of making the postseason according to FiveThirtyEight, with Indiana out in front despite their negative point differential.

But the Pacers have been mostly healthy this year — eight key rotation players have played at least forty games this season — so any injury could knock them off their fragile perch.

The Charlotte Hornets are just 4-11 since New Year’s Eve, tumbling from a seemingly secure fourth place to eighth. With 10 of their next 14 games on the road, they could find themselves on the outside looking in by the All-Star Break.

While their chances at the playoffs are more of a long shot, few teams in the association are playing better than the Philadelphia 76ers right now. Winners of 10 of their last 15, the Sixers have clawed their way to 17-29, just four losses behind the Hornets and Bulls.

Nov 4, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Kent Bazemore (24) drives past Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter Jr. (22) during the second half at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Jockeying For Seeding

Not only is the majority of the league still alive for the playoffs, but the maneuvering among those currently in looks to be substantial as well. While the Golden State Warriors look like a lock to finish with the best overall record, behind them things are anything but settled.

In the West, two major battles are yet to be decided. The Houston Rockets are just one win behind the San Antonio Spurs (although five wins) and will be gunning for the second seed and the home-court advantage it offers.

The Spurs were in the catbird seat, but losses to the Pelicans and Mavericks over the weekend shook that up.

The next question to be answered is how far the Los Angeles Clippers will fall while missing Chris Paul. They are currently a half-game up on the Utah Jazz for fourth place, but they are 1-4 over their last five games and face playoff teams in 12 of their next 15.

If they fall past Utah, the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder lurk another two games further back.

In the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers stumbled their way through January. Losers of six games in their last 10, the Cavaliers left the door open for Toronto to leap them in the rankings. But the Raptors did not take advantage, losing six of their last seven.

While Cleveland kept the top spot, the Boston Celtics have closed to a half-game on Toronto for second.

Behind them, the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards are surging, each 13-4 over their last 17 games.

Only two games separates these four teams from each other in the standings, a mind-boggling reality as just two months ago neither Washington nor Atlanta was in the East’s top 10 teams.

March 11, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) controls the ball against Los Angeles Clippers forward Jeff Green (8) during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

A Super Charged Trade Deadline

More battles means more ammunition, and there is the possibility this season’s trade deadline will be hopping as teams attempt to prepare themselves for the stretch run. Those teams truly out of the running will have a seller’s market with which to unload their assets to the highest bidder.

Teams such as the Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors need to make a move to arrest their freefalls.

The Hornets have a lack of depth on the backcourt and wing, while the Raptors’ hot-shooting from earlier in the season as begun to waver and their defense hasn’t been there to pick up the slack.

If the New York Knicks decide they are out of the running, the rumors swirling around Carmelo Anthony could become reality.

Whether that is a trade to the Los Angeles Clippers or another squad, the Knicks will be motivated to overcome the difficulties of such a move and acquire future assets.