Does James Harden playing point guard actually change anything?
Scott Rafferty (@crabdribbles): Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni announced during media day that James Harden will be their point guard this season. It’s not necessarily a huge surprise since there was a lot of chatter during the offseason about Harden taking over Steve Nash’s role in D’Antoni’s offense, but it’s an interesting shift for the franchise. D’Antoni talked about how the Lakers and Knicks rejected his system, and the Rockets are clearly giving him everything he needs to work his magic.
The thing is, Harden has always been the captain of the ship in Houston. He had the third highest usage rating in the NBA last season and his all-around numbers are basically at LeBron levels. Does him being a “point guard” actually change anything?
Chris Manning (@cwmwrites): I would say that it does. Quite simply, being a point guard under Mike D’Antoni is a very different task than playing point guard under Kevin McHale. The team is going to play faster, attack teams in different ways and play a style of basketball that Harden hasn’t played before.
Harden, as much as he can race up and down the floor and move, has been a very methodical player to this point. He dribbles, he gauges the defense and he attacks in search of getting fouled. Even if the Rockets played at a fairly high pace last season, they’ll be going breakneck under D’Antoni. Harden, instead of gauging defenses and hunting fouls, is going to be asked for quick baskets and correct reads.
So, basically, I think that while Harden’s title won’t really be different, what he’s asked to be in that role is going to look and feel completely different. It matters, too, that Dwight Howard is no longer his running mate.
Rafferty: That’s a good point. Harden didn’t seem to think much would change when he was asked about it, but I think you’re right in that he will be expected to do a lot more with the ball in his hands. Even something simple like him bringing the ball up court to start the offense rather than having to run off of a couple of screens will change what the Rockets do dramatically. He’ll attack teams much quicker, which should create a lot more openings.
For Harden, I’m interested in seeing how taking over that role changes his stats. We’re talking about a dude who averaged 29.0 points, 7.5 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game last season — numbers only Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Larry Bird, John Havlicek and Russell Westbrook have matched — even with all the problems the Rockets had. He is the team right now and everything will be geared around him.
In theory, that will make the Rockets unstoppable on offense. I just wonder if that will be too much for him to handle over the course of an entire regular season and postseason.
Manning: For one, he’s going to have to be in really good shape to make this work. And secondly, I think it’ll be interesting to see how he approaches defense. Two years ago, when he was second in MVP voting, he was passable on defense and played with effort. Last year, he regressed to being a player who really didn’t try that much on defense. D’Antoni isn’t exactly a coach who prioritizes defense, so maybe this will be come up again.
Additionally, it’ll be interesting to see how much help Harden actually gets. I’m very high on Clint Capela, but he’s still young and raw. Corey Brewer took a step back last season. Ryan Anderson is an OK player, but he doesn’t move that well on either end. This all makes me wonder if even if Harden is brilliant and one of the league’s seven best players, will his supporting cast hold him back? And can he, in this system, bring the absolute best out them like Nash did?
Rafferty: I think the combination of the system and role players suit Harden perfectly — on offense, at least. In place of Josh Smith, Terrence Jones and Marcus Thornton, for example, the Rockets have guys who knocked down nearly 50 percent of their open 3-pointers last season. Capela is also an ideal center to pair with Harden because he lives in the pick-and-roll. With the likes of Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson spotting up around them, there should be a ridiculous amount of space for him to work with.
Plus, each of them seem to understand their role. Especially after what happened with Dwight Howard last season, that will help keep everyone on the same page. Harden is clearly the go-to option, and everyone else is on the roster to help him live up to his potential.
In saying that, defense is another story. With how much Harden is going to do on offense, I don’t think we can expect him to be a big-time defender. That would probably work if he had four lockdown defenders around him, but the Rockets don’t have that luxury. Capela is still a young player who hasn’t logged big minutes at center and Anderson is a liability on defense. That puts a lot of pressure on Ariza and Beverley to guard the opposing team’s best players, which is a tough ask.
That begs the question: Will their offense with Harden at point be good enough to offset the issues we think they’ll have on defense? It certainly makes them a fun team to watch, but they definitely have their problems.
Manning: I agree. The offense might be breathtaking, even if I think it’s not perfect. And while it’s cliche to say, teams win big because of their defense. Look at the Warriors, for instance. Will they be able to score a crap ton this season? Absolutely, but their best five-man lineup is going be insanely good on defense. And look at the Cavs, who won the title at least somewhat because their defense tightened up when it mattered. Quite honestly, two the three biggest plays in Game 7 were defensive, not offensive.
Can a team that is overwhelmingly good on offense but bad on defense win anyway? Yes, and D’Antoni has done it before. But the offense has to be overwhelming each and every night. For the Rockets to be as good as possible, they have to be great on offense and just good enough on defense to outscore teams. With how their roster is constructed, I’m not really sure that’s the likeliest outcome. Plus, if Harden is playing a true Nash role, there is going to some kind of adjustment for him. Change always takes time.
Rafferty: So what could the Rockets do with their roster to get to that level? What are they missing?
Manning: I think the Rockets are missing what every team not named Golden State is missing: Hybrid wings. Every teams needs guys who can switch everything, defend multiple positions and help hide other defensive issues. Adding one or even two wouldn’t take Houston into the contender range, but it helps mask Harden’s biggest issue. Let’s say Houston could nab someone like P.J. Tucker, they could role out a five of Beverly/Harden/Ariza/Tucker/Capela than defend at most spots and shoot. That really, really could work.
The issue, though, is that those players are at premium and every contender out there wants them. But that’s what it takes and it’s what would best support D’Antoni’s system in this NBA.
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